I don’t know about a collapse, but I do know that the Communist Party will not be able to sustain things the way they are going. It can’t.
The only things keeping the communists afloat are
The army (notice Jiang didn’t hand over THAT power to the next generation)
and the Chinese Economic Bubble.
And the only engine that is driving the Bubble in China is the huge amount of foreign investment. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of these investments are losing money. They are getting bogged down by the bureaucracy, getting mired in the black laws and red tape, all the while blindly pursuing the dream of getting in on the ground floor of China’s “emerging market” and cheap labor. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/021007/7china.htm
This bubble sound familiar? Remember how the Internet was the panacea for the New Millenium? The vision of a Chinese economic paradise will also come to an end when the reality calls for realistic appraisal dampen the fervor.
And when the Chinese economy takes even the smallest backslide, that’s when the change is going to be needed.
Here’s an issue to consider on the subject of China’s situation: China’s social growing pains. In many regards, China is socially about 100 years behind the Taiwan and other modernized countries. Has anybody realized that with over 85% of the people still living in the countryside, Chinese society hasn’t even gone through the social changes of an industrial revolution yet? The migration from a rural to urban migration happened in most of the West over 100 years ago–in Taiwan in just the last generation. The media (especially Time/Warner) love to depict China as a society on the verge of modernism. But journalists in China don’t seem to get out of the cities too much.
In China today, the cities today are filling with country peasants looking for ANY work (courtesy of the aforementioned Bubble). But what’s going to happen when the economy stumbles and the first factory puts up a “No Help Wanted” sign? Things will get ugly. The can’t go back to the farm–things are even worse there. Labor unions in China? Worker’s rights? In China they don’t exist, except for the government-sponsored entities that are unions in name alone. Look back to the history of any modern country’s labor rights movements: it’s a huge social adjustment that usually involves a fair amount of violence and social unrest. China has never really dealt with that. And with the corruption and one-party system, there are no check and balances or rival parties to drive any kind of real change.
Here’s a scenario I picture: in the midst of a slump in the economy, some tired businessman handing off yet another payment to yet another local party hack will suddenly snap. He’ll wonder what the hell the value-add is to his business by giving cash to this middle-man dweeb who wouldn’t know a company’s balance sheet from a betting form. That’s when the change will start.
Okay, the USSR fell through a combination of breakaway nationalisms (like the Baltics) and economic collapse. The first factor isn’t so important in China, since the population of Tibet and Xinjiang is so low compared to the rest, and other potential nationalisms (Hong Kong? Manchuria? Szechuan?) aren’t pronounced enough to matter. Without this, but with the second factor (economic collapse), the USSR might have gone the way of today’s Russia, which holds together in spite of all their problems. On the other hand, Russia looked like it might fall apart for awhile. And that’s how I see China’s break-up–as a distinct possibility, but not a probability.
Let’s suppose that a serious economic collapse occurs–think Argentina-type stuff–by no means unthinkable for China. So suddenly, China’s cities are full of angry men. Something has to give. But does this mean China’s division, like the USSR? Or just a situation like Russia? Remember, most of the demonstrators or rioters will not be aiming at regional separatism but money and jobs (which probably wouldn’t be forthcoming). Possibly vengeance, but more likely stability.
Try as I might, I don’t see how this would result in a fundamental change in their national identity–or even democracy. (Why would they care about democracy?) We could however see regionalism in the weak sense of not having a strong central government, so every local despot and military officer is on his own to solve problems as best he may. For this to result in a long-term division of China, these regions would have to start competing with each other over bread-and-butter issues. (Shanghai vs. Hong Kong anybody?)
Another likely natural result would be military adventurism. Too many unemployed young males? Not enough money? Invade somebody. Taiwan is the obvious target but there wouldn’t be any money in it, since Taiwan’s economy would be shot to hell as a result. I’d pick Siberia (most potential gain, least resistance) but with a few neutron bombs China could whomp Japan by surprise, then return Southeast Asia and Korea to the Ching-dynasty borders of the motherland.
I remember “doing” an exhibition in Beijijng in about 1993. I took my (Taiwanese) girlfriend to translate and also borrowed a local (Beijing) girl from a Chinese company with connections here. The girl spoke good English and was very helpful. After 2-3 days she started questioning my girlfriend.
" How come you wear different clothes everyday - is it because you are married to a foreigner?"
“do you get better food than the other Taiwanese” - We all know here that you all eat grass!"
I couldn’t believe it. My girlfriend thought is ridiculously funny.
And on the subject of Taiwan independence. ALL the mainlanders I know - all well educated.
“Why do you want Taiwan back”
“Because it’s ours”
“Worth fighting for?”
“Worth killing everybody for”
Maybe when the commies are starting to have problems the Taiwannese businessmen there can stage a coup and take over China…then CKS’s dream will finally be realized hahaha
I wasn’t given the chance. I was in Chongqing las August. Stopped at a local art shop to buy a painting. As soon as the owner found out I was living in Taiwan, HE gave ME an earful about why Taiwan should be independent.
Given the speed with which China is opening to the world, I think it’s overly simplistic to just assume that all mainlanders buy the government’s line on Taiwan.[/quote]
Oh I think you’re right, especially given no-one will ever tell you what they really think. My inlaws for example would never discuss government policy with me (or indeed my wife), but I know enough about them to guess. I believe that if the PRC government changed its policy on Taiwan tomorrow to independence, the same number of people who were yesterday supporting re-uinification would be equally “supportive” of independence. Privately of course they couldn’t give a shit. It has always been necessary for Chinese to vehemently hold various opinions which are liable to instant change and complete reversal, according to whatever they believe is not going to get them in trouble with the authorities. Determining what people in the PRC actually think, is virtually impossible even for close family members (and during the CR especially for close family members) and this has led many casual or lazy western observers to conclude the Chinese don’t think at all, which is obviously bollocks, and tells me that anyone holding such an opinion knows very little about China.
Think also about the effect the single-child policy and it’s the resulting gender imbalance is going to have in a few years.
When (not if) China’s economy goes sour, all those ambitious young men are going to wake up to the fact that they are never going to be able to afford to buy a bride.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the combination of faltering growth and lack of female companionship doesn’t result in some ugly behaviour. In this scenario, wouldn’t the CCP use the chance to channel the aggression at us and attack? After all, Margaret Thatcher pulled this very trick to get her second term, so why not the CCP. The willingness to sacrifice large numbers of innocents to retain power is quite clear, even when the goals are short term.
I think Taiwan should use the '08 Olympics as a stage upon which to declare independance
Very good point. I very well expect that Olympic fever could raise the mood in China for a few years, as it has in many countries that host this event.
What I’m wondering is when the foreign business community is going to finally stop the latest mantra of the coming “Asian century” and temper their investments with the expectations of real profits.
Yes–Asia will rise. But I’m positive that it will not be centered around the type of China that exists today. They will have to de-centralize power in order to be competitive. And the controllers of that central power will fight desperately to hold onto it. I just hope it doesn’t get ugly.
And has anybody seen what’s happening in Europe the past few years? The US could possibly face more economic competition from the EU than Asia. (Think infrastructure.)
As far as what the Taiwanese should do, it’s all up to them. I personally think anyone would be totally whacked to want to get involved with all of the coming problems that China’s going to have to wade through in the coming years. I personally would go for Taiwanese independence in a heartbeat.
It might be very foolish to miss the opportunity. After all, a country with a growing and fiesty military, swelling nationalism bouyed up by a successful Olympics and the perception among the people of international approval it brings. Add some less powerful neighbours and some vague-but-ancient claims on them, and you have a receipe for some military expansionism. It would only take a slight misfire in the great economic engine for this to happen. Taiwan is the perfect punching bag for the new bully.
