If China invades

Hmmmm…I wonder how much FOX News will pay me for a video of a collaborator being lynched? :smiling_imp:

Hmmmm…I wonder how much FOX News will pay me for a video of a collaborator being lynched? :smiling_imp:[/quote]

And to think you don’t even have to bring your own camera…:laughing:


you probably got tht right. In fact your not alone the rpley that was out by consensus when I posed this question in the pub last night was … quite simply to pull up cahir on the patio at the Green bar, smoke a big fat J, and watch the commies gawk and as they march by.

Inspired by recent news I’ve decide that for me looting is the thing to do.


[quote=“taiwantim70”]There will be no show of force for a change of power in Taiwan. the US would only come to the aid of Taiwan (which no Americans would support other than the small population of Taiwanese born US immigrant citizens which mainly live in Orange County, California) if it were attacked. China could set up an economic blockade and the island would crumble into submission in less than two weeks without a single shot being fired.

 Even though an economic blockade would be possible, it is not necessary.  All China has to do is pick up the phone and tell whoever (is in charge of Taiwan at the time) that it is time to "go".  Any politician with dual citizenship would be on the next flight to Canada.  Anyone who thinks your average Taiwanese citizen would actually put up a fight to defend this rock is greatly mistaken.  Don't forget, it was the losers (aka - KMT) which fled the mainland and  set up shop here in Taiwan.  

 As for me I'll plop my beach chair on a busy street corner with a beer in one hand, my video camera in the other and a sign advertising free English lessons to the PRC troops reclaiming a land which was theirs to begin with in the first place.[/quote]

You are mistaken my friend. People in the US have shown they will always support the President if he decides to undertake military action.

Stop hitting that snooze button, if the PRC could have taken Taiwan by an economic blocade or a phone call, why haven’t they done it? Because they’re filled with good will?

[quote=“taiwantim70”]Don’t forget, it was the losers (aka - KMT) which fled the mainland and set up shop here in Taiwan.

… PRC troops reclaiming a land which was theirs to begin with in the first place.[/quote]

I’m assuming this is a troll, but just in case…

  1. your post discounts the fact that only a small proportion of current Taiwan citizens came here with the KMT
  2. when was that?

#1 The American public at large does not support Bush. Americans will support their troops. Americans will also support lower prices at the gas pump. In 2000 over 150,000,000 Americans did not vote for the man who is unlawfully occupying the Whitehouse.

#2 China was messing with Taiwan hundreds of years ago even prior to the Dutch expulsion in the late 17th century. It was in 1949 when Cash My Check and the rest of his 2,000,000 losers fled the mainland after letting Mao and the allies defeat the Japanese in 1945. If I may step back for a moment, the Japanese ruled Taiwan for about 50 years. At the end of WWII, the allied powers gave Taiwan back to China after kicking the Japanese out. I know the rest of the civilized world (or any tourist to Taiwan) knows that Taiwan would be a better place if the Japanese were still in power (think Okinawa or Hawaii).
Now I know some people will point out the brutality of the Japanese with such incidents as the Nanking massacre. Well, the KMT has been quite brutal on the Taiwanese as they demonstrated in 1947 with the 2/28 massacre. The KMT had occupied Taiwan for about 50 years before losing its grip on the presidency to its first “real” democratic election putting that pro-independence fool Da-Bian in office in 2000.
Whether it’s a massacre or a simple bullet in the back of the head (as demonstrated in mainland China), difficult people make for some interesting government policies in managing and controlling them. Hey, its a fact that the people here don’t respond well to logic and reason, just take a look at how they drive. Seeing as I am a visitor to this island and I do not have a Taiwanese passport, my opinions have no value or merit as I cannot vote. But I will say that I do support reunification, reunification with Japan.

Well, that’s probably the only thing you said that everyone here could agree with. :sunglasses: :wink:

Last time I was there, Okinawa was Japanese and Hawaii American. Have I missed something or are you still out drinking beer waiting for the PLA? :laughing:

Well to some extent the point is moot for the time being. The only thing that will cause the PLA to invade Taiwan in the next decade is economic collapse or a great uprising from the vast amount of unemployed workers, mainly in the western outreaches. The former is more likely than the latter but either are still remote possibilities. In either event they know they would be pulling a Saddam Hussein harikari, which you never know, they might do just to save face. They would be destroying their economy and any international goodwill they have and inviting the American army to come in and take over this geographically very strategic island (think

Yes, but the latter does not depend on the former. :unamused:

I think the dominant view among the US military establishment is that China lacks the capability to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. There

defending a little democracy against the big bad commies is a war bush’s neo-con’s would LOVE to fight. short of someone invading the us, i can’t think of a scenerio that would gain more public support in the us.

HongKongPhooey, thank you for that analysis. A few questions, if I may? (Possibly stupid questions, since I’m not very well-informed about military affairs.)

Is it potentially feasible for China to seize an airport somewhere, then airlift in troops that way? Would they have enough troop-transport capacity, and could they conceivably avoid getting shot down while airborne or repulsed while on land? (If technologically feasible, this could allow them to avoid the appearance of a troop build-up in Fujian, and also avoid the Taiwanese navy.)

Or, how much of a difference would it make for naval superiority if China acquired more submarines, and Taiwan did not?

(Personally, I think the war should take the form of a big kung-fu fight scene!)

Or a declaration of independence.

[quote=“HongKongPhooey”]Also in this vein is the idea that China could carry out a blockade to force concessions from Taiwan. This fear is the reason why the US has agreed to sell submarines to Taiwan. Whether or not Taiwan would cave to such pressure depends on the will of its people (which I think is quite week if we


We agree on something! :wink:

Oh, in that case I retract my statement. :laughing: :wink:

Some of the information in HongKongPhooey’s well written post may have come from this article-


This topic came up in a class I took on (U.S.) National Security Policy. The consensus ending up being that within 10-15 years, the Chinese will be strong enough to take Taiwan too quickly for the US to prevent them gaining at least a foothold here, especially if the U.S. presence in Japan is reduced. Of course, U.S. military technology isn’t going to stand still in that time, but if the Chinese launch a few tactical ‘decapitation’ strikes, followed by air support of airborne troops and a beach landing, Taiwan is going to be one exciting place to be. Obviously, this assumes no outside influences like have been mentioned in other posts, but it probably won’t be too long before the Chinese will be able put up a pretty decent fight

I’m no expert either. I’m just repeating a lot of what I read in various think tank reports.

If you have time check out Taiwan Defense Review at tdreview.com/free1.html

As for the question about seizing an airbase: I recall this question being dealt with in a report, which said unless China destroyed Taiwan’s air force first Taiwan would be able to prevent China from seizing an airstrip. Basically, Taiwanese fighters would destroy any runway that China would attempt to take. So that would necessitate first destroying Taiwan’s air force, which is protected by its mountain bases and hence difficult to attack.

The race to acquire submarines deals specifically with the embargo threat. Taiwan needs to acquire subs to reduce the threat. I don’t think China’s increasing its submarine fleet would aid its ability to carry out an amphibious invasion, because troop transport would still be vulnerable from attack from above.

As for reports about China closing the military gap with Taiwan, a lot of this is to justify further arms sales to Taiwan. Why does Taiwan need four Kidds, which were made for the Shah of Iran in the late 1970s? It doesn’t, but the US says it does and Taiwan will buy them because they want AGEIS. I think the threat from China is very real, and it certainly is building is capability. But it is also important to remember that those warning of the China threat are not disinterested parties.

Actually, the Kidds may be better. The then Shah of Iran was following Israel’s lead in weapons procurement from the US. Basically have weapons systems developed for theater specific warfare. Most US Weapons system are developed for use in any theater. Thus they are not at their peak in any theater. The Kidd class destroyers were developed with long range costal defense in mind. In other words they could sit in the Gulf of Aden and hit Iraqi shipping, or air threats in the gulf. The radar system is also developed for medium range warfare. They may be the best weapons systems the US can offer Taiwan. AEGIS system are superior because they allow for detailed command and control at an incredible distance. They are intended for carrier defense. Taiwan is basically an unsinkable aircraft carrier that is always in theater. The AEGIS systems may be redundant or even an added vulnerability.