If US intervened in a Cross-Strait conflict, who would win?
- US, hands down
- PRC
- Difficult to tell
0 voters
If US intervened in a Cross-Strait conflict, who would win?
Not to point out the obvious. But the USA only won one decisive victory in the Pacific theater against Japan using a nuclear bomb.
In all other instances where the USA fought a war with PRC on proxy territory it resulted in a stalemate or a withdrawl.
Also given the fact the USA military is already fighting two wars in the Middle East, where is the man power to fight a 3rd front in the Pacific theater.
Nobody
If a cross-strait conflict erupted, it will be a naval war rather than a war waged on land.
So the previous stalemate between the US and the PRC on the Asian continent would be irrelevant here.
If PRC ever decides to attack Taiwan, it would need to move all those troops from Fujian province across the water to Taiwan. Preparing the logistics for that is a challenge in itself, and the US can easily exploit that.
First the US navy is still more sophisticated than the PRC navy. Even if PRC successfully lands troops on the island, it would need air superiority to cover those troops. US fighter jets can easily pound those troops from the air, as well as sink troop transports on their way across the water.
The PLAAF cannot hold up against a combined squadron of American and Taiwanese Air Force pilots. If you try to compare the caliber of PLAAF pilots against Israeli or American pilots, there is no comparison.
I think the PRC has gotten that one figured out. It’s called a pontoon bridge. I think they’ve got enough bodies to build a few of those. 
What USA armed forces are you referring to? You make it sound as if the military is not stretched to the max in the USA. Who is going to foot the gas bill? Taiwan…it doesn’t even want to pony up the money for arms.
If war started now. I wouldn’t expect much from the USA.
Taiwan and its conscript military will be protecting a landfill by the time the USA got off its a$$ and deploy forces in this direction.
And if USA decided to intervene, given its low popularity overseas, what makes you think PRC cannot create its own “coalition of the willing” to oppose the USA.
If PRC was such an easy military target, USA would have invaded decades ago, or created its own excuse to invade long ago.
The USA would win against China anytime. If the West can take out the Ching dynasty and Japan can take out the KMT in China, what makes you think China can actually take over Taiwan?
[quote]
And if USA decided to intervene, given its low popularity overseas, what makes you think PRC cannot create its own “coalition of the willing” to oppose the USA. [/quote]
Yes, I’m sure there are many countries who are just itching to go to war with the United States. :loco: :loco: :loco:
Ad_Dropout’s world is an interesting one.
Note that China is unable of assembling a carrier taks force.
Also, the Chinese air force is 100+ modern planes, and a few thousand planes which are from the 1950’s. A fair bit of t heir submarines are very noisy.
Also, the construction of their air bases in Fujian is not very good when it comes to survivability after a US air attack.
So… A few US squadrons flying out of Okinawa, coupled with the arrival of the 2 US aircraft carrier groups the US keeps in this area, coupled with a few US submarines operating in the Taiwan strait… would all spell doom for the Chinese invasion efforts.
A war between Taiwan and China with the US helping Taiwan will not lead to a succesful invasion of Taiwan by PRC forces.
[quote=“reztrop”]If a cross-strait conflict erupted, it will be a naval war rather than a war waged on land.
So the previous stalemate between the US and the PRC on the Asian continent would be irrelevant here. [/quote]
That is a really good point and a major difference with past wars in Asia.
It would not stop them firing off their missiles and knocking out a lot of Taiwans infrastructure though.
The only way to fix that would be tit for tatt. Taiwan would need at least 100 missiles aimed at important bits of Beijing to hold them back.
I don’t think any of this is going to happen though. The only way the PRC would come in is if the USA changed stance. Even then trade issues may hold them back. Why knock world wide trade out with sanctions to take a small Island.
[quote=“Ironman”][quote=“reztrop”]If a cross-strait conflict erupted, it will be a naval war rather than a war waged on land.
So the previous stalemate between the US and the PRC on the Asian continent would be irrelevant here. [/quote]
That is a really good point and a major difference with past wars in Asia.
It would not stop them firing off their missiles and knocking out a lot of Taiwans infrastructure though.
The only way to fix that would be tit for tatt. Taiwan would need at least 100 missiles aimed at important bits of Beijing to hold them back.
I don’t think any of this is going to happen though. The only way the PRC would come in is if the USA changed stance. Even then trade issues may hold them back. Why knock world wide trade out with sanctions to take a small Island.[/quote]
Hong Kong is closer, and really, more important.
Hong Kong is closer, but the bombing of that little strip of land would mean more international outrage, I guess.
If I were Taiwan, I would build a lot of cruiser missiles, and then basically bomb SEZ’s and military targets, with the objective being to destroy the fruits of 27 years of reform - and their ability to wage war for some time.
Power plants, railroads, and other energy distribution centers would be on my list too.
[quote=“Mr He”]Hong Kong is closer, but the bombing of that little strip of land would mean more international outrage, I guess.
If I were Taiwan, I would build a lot of cruiser missiles, and then basically bomb SEZ’s and military targets, with the objective being to destroy the fruits of 27 years of reform - and their ability to wage war for some time.
Power plants, railroads, and other energy distribution centers would be on my list too.[/quote]
What’s an international outrage is how Taiwan is ignored in the international community, despite its obvious successes. What UN? What WHO? Taiwan sits of the geeks, losers and dregs table of the world’s buffet.
OK, then, No HK. How about bombing China’s oil refineries. Make it hurt as TW won’t get a second chance.
A short question on US costs re. entry into a war with the PRC over Taiwan. I heard rumours last year before Taiwan’s presidential election that the PRC leadership was willing to sacrifice a decade of development to ‘secure’ the island from independence forces. This is as extreme a position as you perhaps might expect from the Peking authorities. But what about the US? What costs would the US actually face and be willing to bear to see Taiwan repell a Chinese invasion? The question perhaps speaks less to the immediate act of repelling the invasion, and more to the security aftermath. The Iraq conflict has shown that the latter can often be the more ‘expensive’ of the two (certainly in terms of soldier’s lives).
Hong Kong is not the right target.
You’d need to make the decision makers feel insecure.
sorry. ain’t gonna happen. the rich guys in china are good friends( and kin) with the rich guys in the US as well as friends (and kin)of the rich in taiwan. there might be a flare up or two to keep us blinded with nationalism firmly ensconced.
if it were to happen, who would profit? the military industrial complex and the arms dealers. who would suffer the most? the same as always, the poor.
taiwan can’t run to china’s arms fast enough. we all know taiwanese who have relocated the family owned factory to mainland china. china is gonna get taiwan and not a single shot will have to be fired in anger.
just imagine how many ROC “citizens” would take up a PRC passport if China declared an “amnesty” (or whatever) for all “overseas” chinese living on taiwan. if china would set up a passport office in HK the rush would be front page news worldwide. would make the lines outside the US embassy in Gunagzhou look short. i bet no fewer than half of the taiwanese population would accept a PRC passport. all china would have to do is sit back for a generation or two (time, seemingly as always, is on china’s side) let the number of dual passport holders increase to a severe majority in conjunction with the already strengthening economic ties between the two and things’ll be so tight as to be inseperable.
the US ain’t going to war with china. simple as that. china owns america’s debt.
In a similar vein to the above, what level of economic damage is the world willing to put up with for a stoush over a fairly insignificant piece of land? Sorry, Taiwan’s a lovely place, nice people, good food, but is it really that important in a global sense? Is it in the ascendant or descending?
Look at the possible impact of a China slowdown in the coming year on the region alone and you begin to understand how preposterous the whole idea of a war dragging in the US becomes.
It’s also really important not to underestimate the new regime in China. There has been an incredible shift in that country and it is continuing. Becoming embroiled in a conflict, which could involve the US, is simply not an option at this point in time or in the foreseeable future.
But while we indulge our fantasies, scenarios I’ve seen point to the eradication of the Taiwanese airforce within minutes, with whatever miserable survivors ordered to fly “one way” missions into China to wreak as much economic damage as possible. This includes hitting targets such as the Three Gorges dam. It certainbly does not include hitting HK, the effective banking hub of the entire region!
HG
[quote=“ac_dropout”]What USA armed forces are you referring to? You make it sound as if the military is not stretched to the max in the USA. Who is going to foot the gas bill? Taiwan…it doesn’t even want to pony up the money for arms.
If war started now. I wouldn’t expect much from the USA.
Taiwan and its conscript military will be protecting a landfill by the time the USA got off its a$$ and deploy forces in this direction.
And if USA decided to intervene, given its low popularity overseas, what makes you think PRC cannot create its own “coalition of the willing” to oppose the USA.
If PRC was such an easy military target, USA would have invaded decades ago, or created its own excuse to invade long ago.[/quote]
Militaries stretched are able to convene. Combining military units must be a new concept to you.
[quote=“ShrimpCrackers”][quote=“ac_dropout”]What USA armed forces are you referring to? You make it sound as if the military is not stretched to the max in the USA. Who is going to foot the gas bill? Taiwan…it doesn’t even want to pony up the money for arms.
If war started now. I wouldn’t expect much from the USA.
Taiwan and its conscript military will be protecting a landfill by the time the USA got off its a$$ and deploy forces in this direction.
And if USA decided to intervene, given its low popularity overseas, what makes you think PRC cannot create its own “coalition of the willing” to oppose the USA.
If PRC was such an easy military target, USA would have invaded decades ago, or created its own excuse to invade long ago.[/quote]
Militaries stretched are able to convene. Combining military units must be a new concept to you.[/quote]
You plan to support the draft in the USA. Combine with what? Thin air.
[quote=“ac_dropout”][quote=“ShrimpCrackers”][quote=“ac_dropout”]What USA armed forces are you referring to? You make it sound as if the military is not stretched to the max in the USA. Who is going to foot the gas bill? Taiwan…it doesn’t even want to pony up the money for arms.
If war started now. I wouldn’t expect much from the USA.
Taiwan and its conscript military will be protecting a landfill by the time the USA got off its a$$ and deploy forces in this direction.
And if USA decided to intervene, given its low popularity overseas, what makes you think PRC cannot create its own “coalition of the willing” to oppose the USA.
If PRC was such an easy military target, USA would have invaded decades ago, or created its own excuse to invade long ago.[/quote]
Militaries stretched are able to convene. Combining military units must be a new concept to you.[/quote]
You plan to support the draft in the USA. Combine with what? Thin air.[/quote]
Stuff words into your own crack, not mine.
The democrats, the republicans, and even the military has announced that there will not be a draft. Where is your proof? Thin air!