[quote=“spook”]If the U.S. wanted to pull out of Iraq now it couldn’t because it’s created a power vacuum there that nothing even remotely acceptable to the Bush Administration could fill.
That will be the case far into the future.
Post-war Japan and Germany aren’t good analogies because both countries circa 1947 looked much different and were on different trend lines than Iraq is now. If Islamic fundamentalism and neo-conservative fundamentalism weren’t in the mix than they could well be analogous but – like post-colonial Viet Nam with its Marxist-Leninist element – the fundamentals are much different.[/quote]
The first point, that the lack of power will neccesitate the US being there as a guiding/forceful hand is one of the good things about the occupation. As long as the US is there, the chances of the insurgents turning the tide are slim, and the chances that Syria or Iran or even Suadi Arabia will turn Iraq into a Lebanon puppet state are even slimmer.
The second point that if you take out Islamic fundementalism and what you call neo-conservative fundementalism, then honestly you have taken out the cause and effect of the entire situation.
My analogy is only of the long term effects on Germany (the strongest economy in Europe) and Japan ( the strongest economy in Asia) BECAUSE OF the US occupation and reconstructing support may just well have the same long term effect on Iraq, making it the strongest economy in the Middle East. And that will benefit the entire region, as Germany and Japan’s successful transitions to non-aggressive states benefitted their neighbors.
I believe that far too people have a positive long term view of what is possible in Iraq. They get caught up in the rights and wrongs of the now (and I’m sure this will be characterized as my own willful ignorance) and feel that because things are bad now, they will only get worse.
Maybe this is the main difference between pessimistic short-sighted neo-liberals and overly optimistic willfully ignorant long-sighted neo-conservatives.