Is America pushing itself into a corner in the Taiwan Strait

I think this will make an interesting thread.

Lien’s and Soong’s visits to China have sent Taiwan’s green camp into disarray. The DPP is faltering in the polls just before a National Assembly election.

In some ways the US has allowed this to happen. US officials have been much more enthusiastic about Lien’s and Soong’s visits than about asking Beijing to talk to Taiwan’s elected government.

I am reminded of George W Bush’s damning cricitism of Chen Shui-bian in front of Wen Jiabao in December 2003 for pushing a referendum. Also remember the more recent remarks by Colin Powell that Taiwan has no sovereignty.

There are many other signs of US preference for the KMT which I won’ list here.

All in all, the US is clearly unhappy with the DPP for pushing for more independence and for being so disobedient, putting the US in harm’s way. US policy now seems to reflect a notion that the KMT can better serve US interests than the DPP.

My questions:

  1. Is the KMT going to be more sensitive to US concerns than the DPP has been? Or is it going to be just as recalcitrant in the opposite direction, namely unification with China? Remember both the KMT and PFP continue to block the arms budget despite US pressure.

  2. We know status quo has been US policy on Taiwan for a long time. By keeping Taiwan’s status undetermined, the US can avoid a conflict with China over Taiwan independence while also very much keeping Chinese naval power off the Pacific.

Now, if the KMT is going to push for unification with China once (I mean, if) it regains power, will the US have the wherewithal to protect its strategic interests? Do you think the US has enough leverage to make the KMT keep a distance from China?

  1. If not, do you think closer Taiwan-China ties will pose higher strategic risks to America and Japan, or do you think the risks are being exaggerated?

  2. My last question is basically a summary of the above three: Is it wise for the US to prefer the KMT over the DPP? Which of them do you think serves US interests better? Or is the US “status quo” policy simply becoming too uncanny to carry on?

Care to provide some support for you rather specious accusations?

And please, no dissembling. Just the facts to back-up your allegations. :unamused:

Which matters how exactly? The DPP & KMT have exactly the same policy for the National Assembly Elections - so a mass switch from DPP to KMT makes NO difference (as long as people don’t vote PFP or TSU that is).

No they haven’t. They’ve been quite clear that any talk is to be encouraged, but that China needs to talk to the government of Taiwan. A position that a lot of people agree with.

And you’ll presumably remember their criticism of the anti-secession law. Either side does something they don’t approve of, they complain.

I agree that they would have prefered the KMT to win the presidential election last year (unofficial position of course), but so what? They are still keen to work with Chen.

No. But the KMT will have a less antagonistic policy to China - which will please the US. They don’t want to get dragged into a war here …

You misunderstand US policy. They are not ‘pro-status quo’: they just want any change to the status quo to be agreed upon by both sides. If Taiwan moves (voluntarily) towards unification, then the US will be happy that there is one less issue for them to worry about.

I don’t think they’ll try that hard. Strategic interests in the Pacific take second place to a war not starting.

It is unwise for the US to support either party too much. However, they are right to support policies which minimise a risk of a war which they will be involved in. That means they are going to be more enthusiastic about pro-unification policies; but if the Taiwanese democratically choose more pro-independence policies I would hope the US would still help protect Taiwan from any fallout from China.

No they haven’t. They’ve been quite clear that any talk is to be encouraged, but that China needs to talk to the government of Taiwan. A position that a lot of people agree with.
[/quote]
US officials have been very quick to encourage Lien and Soong, but the second position, that China needs to talk to the government of Taiwan, initially came as a side note from an outgoing official named Randall Shriver. How cute.

And you’ll presumably remember their criticism of the anti-secession law. Either side does something they don’t approve of, they complain.
[/quote]

Yeah, right. It took them a whole month to come to the conclusion that the anti-secession law is bad and should be opposed. Before that, a remark from Condee Rice that it’s “not helpful.” No, she said, “We would have hoped that this would not have been done.” How very so sweet of her.

No. But the KMT will have a less antagonistic policy to China - which will please the US. They don’t want to get dragged into a war here …
[/quote]

That’s exactly where my question is. A Taiwan government less antagonistic to China will surely prevent conflict, but what if it gives away too much to China for the US to be comfortable. For example, what if it stops buying US arms, cuts cooperation with US military, or opens Taiwan’s military exercises to Chinese observers? Or do you think these simply cannot happen under the US’ watch?

I’m not so sure about that. I know the guys at the State Department will be dancing with joy if that happens, but the Defense people will be turning livid and black and livid again.

I don’t think they’ll try that hard. Strategic interests in the Pacific take second place to a war not starting.[/quote]

I am talking about long-term possibilities. The US (or maybe Japan) and China will be closer to war if the Taiwan government allows the Chinese to set up a little naval post on one of its tiny islands off Keelung, for example. Are you saying China’s influence on Taiwan will never reach that level? Or maybe China has never had such intentions?

I agree that if the Taiwanese want independence they have to take responsibility for it first and foremost. But encouragement from the outside can always help. The East Timorese bravely took the tragic fallout from the independence vote, but I doubt if they would have been so decisive if there’s no solid UN and Catholic church support.

Of course, not much is forthcoming in Taiwan’s case. We can only hope that the US will be willing to help an independent Taiwan, but we probably don’t need to worry about it because the US won’t be obliged to prove its willingness any time soon.

[quote=“Levitator”]I think this will make an interesting thread.

Lien’s and Soong’s visits to China have sent Taiwan’s green camp into disarray. The DPP is faltering in the polls just before a National Assembly election.
[/quote]

Those same polls don’t show a much greater support for the pan blues than before. The most significant trend is a loss of support for the DPP. But this does not translate into a net gain for the pan blues. Most of the support that Chen has lost has been from true pan green supporters who feel he has not been strong enough in his opposition to the KMT and PFP China visits. Most of these disenchanted supporters are certainly not going to vote KMT or PFP. I would not be surprised to see the TSU gain in support in the coming month.

Good. Then we will see the true dismal numbers of T.I.ers instead of being held hostage by their hiding among the centrists. If DPP holds the trend toward moderation, we will finally see true political diversity in the interest of Taiwan instead of this T.I.er cultural revolution that muffles voices and checks true movement on a host of other unrelated issues. The three top parties in Taiwan can compete on the things that matter to the center, while extremists can bitch themselves to death in fringe parties.

[quote=“tomtom taiwan”]
Those same polls don’t show a much greater support for the pan blues than before. The most significant trend is a loss of support for the DPP. But this does not translate into a net gain for the pan blues. Most of the support that Chen has lost has been from true pan green supporters who feel he has not been strong enough in his opposition to the KMT and PFP China visits. Most of these disenchanted supporters are certainly not going to vote KMT or PFP. I would not be surprised to see the TSU gain in support in the coming month.[/quote]

Thanks for the heads-up, tomtom. I’ll go check the polls. :slight_smile:

I think a lot of these questions depend on how militarily hegemonic the Chinese might become if Taiwan were swallowed up in a unification (note the non-use of

The US Navy, Air Force, and DoD don’t want Chinese naval dominance of the Pacific. The US State Dept’s position is unclear.

When the Chiense sub made its tour of the Pacific they darn near called “battle stations” here on Guam on the military installations. The general populace was quite unaware but those of us federally employment or contractors like myself knew about it. In the wake of the incident and the sub coming within 300 miles of Guam, DoD is re-evaluating the threat level in the Pacific. Rumor is that more US naval power is going to be homeported in Guam and possibly once again in the Philippines.

[quote=“tomtom taiwan”][quote=“Levitator”]I think this will make an interesting thread.

Lien’s and Soong’s visits to China have sent Taiwan’s green camp into disarray. The DPP is faltering in the polls just before a National Assembly election.
[/quote]

Those same polls don’t show a much greater support for the pan blues than before. The most significant trend is a loss of support for the DPP. But this does not translate into a net gain for the pan blues. Most of the support that Chen has lost has been from true pan green supporters who feel he has not been strong enough in his opposition to the KMT and PFP China visits. Most of these disenchanted supporters are certainly not going to vote KMT or PFP. I would not be surprised to see the TSU gain in support in the coming month.[/quote]

Interesting theory, but the vote has been cast and look what happened? DPP still made gains while the Pan Blues use the excuse that rain specifically stops their voters from leaving home.

Yes…I love the rain excuse. I suppose Pan Green supporters just don’t fear the rain as much. Those poor Pan Blues. I don’t know how they have survived so long in a humid climate!

And wasn’t this supposed to be an election dominated by votes from the hard liners (since they were the only ones who cared)? What does that say that the hard-line PFP has the poorest showing?