I’ve heard Liu JingSong a former PLA general recently stated that the use of military force is still very much an option if Taiwan does not continue pursuing policies that Beijing regards as building closer ties leading to reunification.Has this statement made the news in Taiwan and if so what has been the reaction?This strikes me as simply a timely restatement of long-standing CCP policy but it might be of interest to those who doubt the CCP’s readiness to use military force to achieve reunification.Could this encourage the blues and greens to resolve their differences for the sake of national survival?
meh. CCP hawks polishing their little helmets, as usual.
If war is “an option” (which I very much doubt, except possibly down there at the bottom of the list) there is essentially nothing that Taiwan can do to forestall it except attempt to re-educate China’s young. I believe they are doing this as effectively as they can by engaging in business and inviting students to study at Taiwan’s universities.
What kind of military force would Beijing use?
Lobbing a missile on Taipei would risk the lives of many pro-unification KMT allies.
Dropping one anywhere else in Taiwan would probably cost the lives of several busloads of Chinese tourists.
The invasion has already been done, without the D-Day drama.
Buses, not bombs. Renminbi, not bullets
business as usual.
We’ve had this kind of “warning” since 20 years ago. Same old same old. Yawn
[quote=“Charlie Phillips”]What kind of military force would Beijing use?
Lobbing a missile on Taipei would risk the lives of many pro-unification KMT allies.
Dropping one anywhere else in Taiwan would probably cost the lives of several busloads of Chinese tourists.
The invasion has already been done, without the D-Day drama.
Buses, not bombs. Renminbi, not bullets[/quote]
So you basically think Beijing has no incentive to force Taiwan to accept a HK like status?You don’t think there are a lot of PRC citizens who would support this as a historic event ending the “period of humiliation” that China experienced starting in the 19th century?I would have been inclined to agree with your analysis if the KMT’s cross strait policies hadn’t been essentially discredited in the recent elections.If the DPP takes power fully,will its policies encourage the CCP to be sanguine about the direction of its reunification efforts or make Beijing more likely to start using military force?If the ultimatum comes (surrender or war) would the Taiwanese government have the stomach for a war it has no hope of winning?I don’t understand the seeming lack of concern among the people on Taiwan.I would like to believe they have some unique insight into CCP thinking but I look at the huge Chinese military buildup and the way it is using that military to resolve old territorial issues.I see the huge support such activities generate in the PRC. The CCP is hungry for such support after having its image tarnished in so many ways.It seems the only things holding Beijing back are a)a belief that it can take Taiwan peacefully and b) how it will be perceived by the world community.The former has been thrown into question by the recent election while the CCP seems less and less concerned about the latter.
20 years ago,Taiwan had a much more favorable military balance with the PRC.Now foreign studies say an invasion would only take about 2 weeks.Maybe the time for yawning is past.
I said “they have been doing this since 20 years ago”, not “they did this 20 years ago”.
Do you have any other suggestion for us? Other than ignore their juvenile behavior.
[quote=“redpolko”]
So you basically think Beijing has no incentive to force Taiwan to accept a HK like status?You don’t think there are a lot of PRC citizens who would support this as a historic event ending the “period of humiliation” that China experienced starting in the 19th century?[/quote]
This would not be an end to anything, under the guise of recapturing territory lost during the period of humiliation, China has expanded its claims of territory well beyond anything it rightfully should lay claim to. Although with regards Taiwan I agree with others who have said, use of military force is right at the bottom of their list of options. With the recent wave of DPP victories its not surprising to have someone note, that if there was a rewrite to the Taiwan constitution and if there were a formal push for de jure independence, Chinas options become far more limited. I think everyone here is well aware of this, maintain the status quo and slowly become absorbed by Chinas influence (Chinas preference) or demand Taiwan be treated as an equal nation along with necessary changes to the constitution, and incur Bejings wrath.
In reality, I think there is a whole range of in between options, there may also over time be a change in the politics over on the mainland. Anything that is done with regards China is highly sensitive and I just dont see a situation arising where China suddenly feels the need to use military.
An attack from Beijing, again, depends not on what Taiwan does but rather on internal conditions in the PRC. China already has the reins of Taiwan since they were handed in a silver plate by the business conglomerates, they have us by the economic proverbial balls. So there is truly no actual need to attack… unless it is to make an statement. Remember: kill the chicken to scare the dog, or whatever that saying says. To explain this: Beijing has world support in terms of public opinion of taking over Taiwna formally -heck if the US would do anything but not even throw a tantrum, but most probably release a statement along the lines of “we welcome a peaceful resolution and embrace brotherhood” blabla if Beijing really would do it this messy island. Everyone knows they have military superiority but most importantly, the generals here are not to defend Taiwan but the ROC. They have retirement planned in their hometowns in Shandong and Hunan and homes in Beijing. They will not give the ultimate sacrifice for this island. Their loyalties are more than divided, they are antiquated. Any Taiwan born general is already groomed in this mentality, otherwise, he wouldn’t be a general. So they won’t give the orders other than maybe protect civilians in case of attack. And they are underfunded, working with obsolete equipment. There is no incentive to fight, there are no means to fight. Why fight? Anyways, it is “inevitable”, as has been promoted time and time again in the population.
But if Beijing is in trouble internally, if there is a party crisis of big proportions that they need to rally the troops literally, if there are even worse revolts than now in the usual places or worse, closer to the centers of power in Shanghai and Beijing, then a show off attack would be in order. But it would be more smoke and mirrors than anything else. IMHO.
[quote=“Charlie Phillips”]
The invasion has already been done, without the D-Day drama.
Buses, not bombs. Renminbi, not bullets[/quote]
Don’t forget that Taiwan has stinky tofu. And thousand-year eggs. China has no defense against this.
That’s true. Any invading army would quickly install itself in the nearest night market or eatery to sample to local delicacies.
No one has a unique insight into the CCP as the CCP members itself … not even Chinese that are non-CCP members (yes, there are Chinese that are not a member of the CCP, it’s not from birth that you are a member). But being a CCP member has it’s advantages (many got rich through corruption) and it’s disadvantages nowadays, they got caught for corruption.
Why would they start a war? To ruin their economy, global (non)esteem?
Chinese history is filled with the “they’ve been at it so many times, nothing will ever happen” line whenever status quo is about to change.
Dumb ass Southern Song government said that about the Mongols (Mongols had been trying to sack Song on and off for 44 years), and refused to beef up navy and send reinforcements, and their last kid emperor was forced to jump off a frigging cliff in the arms of a frigging eunuch.
The Manchu’s had been engaged in warfare with Ming on and off for 22 years, and people think they’ll will never really try to conquer China. Defenders of Ming were left stranded in the frozen north without food, weapons and reinforcements. Leaders were often framed and killed because the emperors grew weary of their success.
If there’s a threat, Taiwan should be prepared for it.
How, exactly? Taiwan has no plausible way of ejecting a military invader. The best it can do is reassure the CCP that any such invasion would turn into a Vietnam-style war of attrition … except that it wouldn’t, because as noted, all concerned would be highly motivated to just come to some “arrangement”.
Far better, I suggest, to make sure that no such war is possible or necessary.
How, exactly? Taiwan has no plausible way of ejecting a military invader. [/quote]
Neither did Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherland when Hitler wanted to unit the white people.
Look, let’s ask a different question. Can China defend Taiwan against invaders?
Anybody (military) can invade Taiwan. The question is, what is their defence plan after landing here. How long can they hold their defence position against missile strikes from outside of Taiwan?
If / when the DPP win in 2016, China can choose to choke Taiwan economically, block it from even more international participation, stop propping up the housing market etc, to the point where it the economy goes into recession or worse, and come 2020 the KMT gets elected in a landslide. Then back to business as usual. No shots need to be fired.
assuming China itself can survive its own recession by 2020.
Then we’d better prepare for a recession then. KMT is not gonna win in 2016.
This is nonsense. DPP was in the office between 2000 and 2008 and China didn’t do anything you predict them would do.