assuming China itself can survive its own recession by 2020.[/quote]
It’d better be worse than Japan’s, lol.
Then we’d better prepare for a recession then. KMT is not gonna win in 2016.
This is nonsense. DPP was in the office between 2000 and 2008 and China didn’t do anything you predict them would do.[/quote]
a) China didn’t have anywhere near the economic power then that it does now.
b) The KMT still controlled the LY then.
c) Taiwan’s economy is more reliant on China now than it was then.
[quote=“Gain”]
Then we’d better prepare for a recession then. KMT is not gonna win in 2016.
This is nonsense. DPP was in the office between 2000 and 2008 and China didn’t do anything you predict them would do.[/quote]
They did for the most part end most avenues of conversation with the Taiwan government. Maybe Xi would play a different game after seeing what happened when he strong armed issues in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
[quote=“Gain”]
It’d better be worse than Japan’s, lol.[/quote]
social structure is dramatically different in China and Japan. In Japan people’s frustrations can be let out through the democratic process. In China, widening wealth gap and a recession might end up a lot more volatile.
How, exactly? Taiwan has no plausible way of ejecting a military invader. [/quote]
Neither did Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherland when Hitler wanted to unit the white people.
Look, let’s ask a different question. Can China defend Taiwan against invaders?
Anybody (military) can invade Taiwan. The question is, what is their defence plan after landing here. How long can they hold their defence position against missile strikes from outside of Taiwan?[/quote]
And who, may I ask, will defend Taiwan? US can’t, it is in an economic neck brace, lock held by China. No, I don’t believe the TRA would defend us. Russia would be given a perfect excuse if the US moves even a frigate this way. Heck, even the UN would fall on their throat. The worldwide perception is Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan is not important economically, no oil here, fuggitabboutit.
In the case of Belgium et al, the allies stepped up. Current world powers are China and US and Russia. 2 out of 3 say go.
[quote=“hansioux”][quote=“Gain”]
It’d better be worse than Japan’s, lol.[/quote]
social structure is dramatically different in China and Japan. In Japan people’s frustrations can be let out through the democratic process. In China, widening wealth gap and a recession might end up a lot more volatile.[/quote]
To make matters worse, the rapid aging of Taiwan society is going to make it difficult economically even worse.
How, exactly? Taiwan has no plausible way of ejecting a military invader. [/quote]
Neither did Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherland when Hitler wanted to unit the white people.
Look, let’s ask a different question. Can China defend Taiwan against invaders?
Anybody (military) can invade Taiwan. The question is, what is their defence plan after landing here. How long can they hold their defence position against missile strikes from outside of Taiwan?[/quote]
And who, may I ask, will defend Taiwan? US can’t, it is in an economic neck brace, lock held by China. No, I don’t believe the TRA would defend us. Russia would be given a perfect excuse if the US moves even a frigate this way. Heck, even the UN would fall on their throat. The worldwide perception is Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan is not important economically, no oil here, fuggitabboutit.
In the case of Belgium et al, the allies stepped up. Current world powers are China and US and Russia. 2 out of 3 say go.[/quote]
The allies i.e., US did not step up to defend Belgium et al when Germany invaded it. Rather, the allies invaded Belgium et al only after it became Germany’s turn to defend these territories.
[edit] To answer your question, it is easier to bomb a territory than to defend it. I find it weird that those who are thinking about a Chinese invasion of Formosa pretend that the same invasion force can survive US bombing.
Anyways, everyone ended under a Panzer… for quite a while… if that second front did not open… There are several contestants for a second front in our situation, but basically, Taiwan is really up a certain creek without a paddle.
China has no ability to prevent US from bombing any targets on Formosa that US consider “hostile.” Regardless of whether hostile targets are on the west coast or on the east coast of Formosa, China has no solution to US “operations” against such targets.
The point is, whatever military unit on Formosa, as long as US considers it foe, can be wiped out from the sea anyway.
There is no defence against it.
If Taiwan is important to China, then it is important to other country even more so precisely because China wants it bad. It is false and a deception to describe Taiwan as only important to China but not to someone else. It is, after all, a piece of real-estate at prime location.
Everybody can see why China wants it bad, that’s why the cost of acquire it is higher for China than for anyone else.
[quote=“cfimages”]
a) China didn’t have anywhere near the economic power then that it does now.
b) The KMT still controlled the LY then.
c) Taiwan’s economy is more reliant on China now than it was then.[/quote]
a) It was already the 3rd largest economy back in 2008, and it’s the 2nd largest now. They were already a giant six years ago. If they wanted to smother us, they were more than capable of doing it then.
b) Yes, but CBS always talked about TI all the time and it upset China greatly, he never backed down on Taiwan’s sovereignty, the fact that pan-blue camp was larger in legislature didn’t make that much of difference. Even if DPP controlled the LY back then, they still wouldn’t declare independence.
c) Yes, but we were already very reliant on China back in 2007 and 2008, the economic ties pretty much started then.
And as everybody could see, being reliant on China does not benefit 98% of the Taiwanese people, so cutting the ties might actually be a good thing.
Conclusion: China will have to deal with a DPP administration with a DPP-majority LY. KMT won’t benefit from their threatening.
[quote=“Icon”]
And who, may I ask, will defend Taiwan? US can’t, it is in an economic neck brace, lock held by China. No, I don’t believe the TRA would defend us. Russia would be given a perfect excuse if the US moves even a frigate this way. Heck, even the UN would fall on their throat. The worldwide perception is Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan is not important economically, no oil here, fuggitabboutit.
In the case of Belgium et al, the allies stepped up. Current world powers are China and US and Russia. 2 out of 3 say go.[/quote]
Probably nobody is gonna defend us, so we have to make sure that any war does not take place.
But no, not everybody in the world perceives Taiwan as part of China, many don’t follow China’s One China Policy 100%, notably the US and Japan, pretty much the only two that matters.
article.wn.com/view/2011/09/06/U … ina_cable/
Not that it means anything significant.
And no, Russia is not a current world power, it has hard power, that’s it. Russia’s economy is in a cesspool, and the size of that is about as big as Italy’s.
[quote=“Gain”]I said “they have been doing this since 20 years ago”, not “they did this 20 years ago”.
Do you have any other suggestion for us? Other than ignore their juvenile behavior.[/quote]
My suggestion would be for people in Taiwan to act like they are facing an existential threat and come together accordingly. Taiwan looks like a ship cruising among the icebergs while the crew argues about who is in charge. Both parties should be bending over backwards to build a consensus about mainland policy. Any KMT cross strait initiatives should have to meet DPP approval and the latter should shut up about these KMT efforts unless it has a realistic alternative.
Why would they start a war? To ruin their economy, global (non)esteem?[/quote]
If such a war would actually ruin the PRC economy there would be little to worry about.(But I could be wrong if Taiwan had the right sort of weapons and the will to use them.) There was a time when an invasion of Taiwan would have been too economically costly to consider but I think that time is past (or soon to be past). Why would they start a war? Low cost vs. high political return for the CCP. Long term,Taiwan is the biggest source of “spiritual pollution” (ie.democratic ideas) and a huge threat to CCP dominance. The CCP is determined to foster the idea that democracy is not suitable for China. A thriving democracy on Taiwan makes that very difficult.
How, exactly? Taiwan has no plausible way of ejecting a military invader. The best it can do is reassure the CCP that any such invasion would turn into a Vietnam-style war of attrition … except that it wouldn’t, because as noted, all concerned would be highly motivated to just come to some “arrangement”.
Far better, I suggest, to make sure that no such war is possible or necessary.[/quote]
Ask what Taiwan could do to derail the PRC economy.Maybe a mass of well targeted missiles?Maybe something more unconventional?Any threat to the PRC economy would make the CCP think twice about an attack.
[quote=“redpolko”]
My suggestion would be for people in Taiwan to act like they are facing an existential threat and come together accordingly. Taiwan looks like a ship cruising among the icebergs while the crew argues about who is in charge. Both parties should be bending over backwards to build a consensus about mainland policy. Any KMT cross strait initiatives should have to meet DPP approval and the latter should shut up about these KMT efforts unless it has a realistic alternative.[/quote]
KMT efforts? The only efforts they have been trying to make are unification, corruption, and ruining the economy, lol.
[quote=“redpolko”]
If such a war would actually ruin the PRC economy there would be little to worry about.(But I could be wrong if Taiwan had the right sort of weapons and the will to use them.) There was a time when an invasion of Taiwan would have been too economically costly to consider but I think that time is past (or soon to be past). Why would they start a war? Low cost vs. high political return for the CCP. Long term,Taiwan is the biggest source of “spiritual pollution” (ie.democratic ideas) and a huge threat to CCP dominance. The CCP is determined to foster the idea that democracy is not suitable for China. A thriving democracy on Taiwan makes that very difficult.[/quote]
I find this kind of “thriving democracy of Taiwan threatens CCP” argument to be quite laughable. Obviously Chinese people don’t give a rat’s ass about Taiwan’s democracy, they laugh about how dysfunctional our LY is and how backwards and ugly Taipei is compares to their awesome world class cities like Shanghai or Beijing, they won’t revolt just because there’s a democracy hangin’ there.
Taiwan’s democracy is not that influential.
How, exactly? Taiwan has no plausible way of ejecting a military invader. [/quote]
Neither did Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherland when Hitler wanted to unit the white people.
Look, let’s ask a different question. Can China defend Taiwan against invaders?
Anybody (military) can invade Taiwan. The question is, what is their defence plan after landing here. How long can they hold their defence position against missile strikes from outside of Taiwan?[/quote]
And who, may I ask, will defend Taiwan? US can’t, it is in an economic neck brace, lock held by China. No, I don’t believe the TRA would defend us. Russia would be given a perfect excuse if the US moves even a frigate this way. Heck, even the UN would fall on their throat. The worldwide perception is Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan is not important economically, no oil here, fuggitabboutit.
In the case of Belgium et al, the allies stepped up. Current world powers are China and US and Russia. 2 out of 3 say go.[/quote]
The allies i.e., US did not step up to defend Belgium et al when Germany invaded it. Rather, the allies invaded Belgium et al only after it became Germany’s turn to defend these territories.
[edit] To answer your question, it is easier to bomb a territory than to defend it. I find it weird that those who are thinking about a Chinese invasion of Formosa pretend that the same invasion force can survive US bombing.[/quote]
Why do you think a US tired of foreign wars would want to start a new one? What vital national interest would be at stake,especially since the US has already conceded that Taiwan belongs to the PRC?
[quote=“sofun”]If Taiwan is important to China, then it is important to other country even more so precisely because China wants it bad. It is false and a deception to describe Taiwan as only important to China but not to someone else. It is, after all, a piece of real-estate at prime location.
Everybody can see why China wants it bad, that’s why the cost of acquire it is higher for China than for anyone else.[/quote]
No other power besides the PRC has any serious designs on Taiwan. No other government has the incentive to take over the island and the military power to do so.
[quote=“Gain”][quote=“Icon”]
And who, may I ask, will defend Taiwan? US can’t, it is in an economic neck brace, lock held by China. No, I don’t believe the TRA would defend us. Russia would be given a perfect excuse if the US moves even a frigate this way. Heck, even the UN would fall on their throat. The worldwide perception is Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan is not important economically, no oil here, fuggitabboutit.
In the case of Belgium et al, the allies stepped up. Current world powers are China and US and Russia. 2 out of 3 say go.[/quote]
Probably nobody is gonna defend us, so we have to make sure that any war does not take place.
But no, not everybody in the world perceives Taiwan as part of China, many don’t follow China’s One China Policy 100%, notably the US and Japan, pretty much the only two that matters.
article.wn.com/view/2011/09/06/U … ina_cable/
Not that it means anything significant.
And no, Russia is not a current world power, it has hard power, that’s it. Russia’s economy is in a cesspool, and the size of that is about as big as Italy’s.[/quote]
The US and Japan would certainly be against any PRC effort to take over the island but Japan couldn’t and the US probably wouldn’t be willing to fight to protect Taiwan.
[quote=“Gain”][quote=“redpolko”]
My suggestion would be for people in Taiwan to act like they are facing an existential threat and come together accordingly. Taiwan looks like a ship cruising among the icebergs while the crew argues about who is in charge. Both parties should be bending over backwards to build a consensus about mainland policy. Any KMT cross strait initiatives should have to meet DPP approval and the latter should shut up about these KMT efforts unless it has a realistic alternative.[/quote]
KMT efforts? The only efforts they have been trying to make are unification, corruption, and ruining the economy, lol.
[quote=“redpolko”]
If such a war would actually ruin the PRC economy there would be little to worry about.(But I could be wrong if Taiwan had the right sort of weapons and the will to use them.) There was a time when an invasion of Taiwan would have been too economically costly to consider but I think that time is past (or soon to be past). Why would they start a war? Low cost vs. high political return for the CCP. Long term,Taiwan is the biggest source of “spiritual pollution” (ie.democratic ideas) and a huge threat to CCP dominance. The CCP is determined to foster the idea that democracy is not suitable for China. A thriving democracy on Taiwan makes that very difficult.[/quote]
I find this kind of “thriving democracy of Taiwan threatens CCP” argument to be quite laughable. Obviously Chinese people don’t give a rat’s ass about Taiwan’s democracy, they laugh about how dysfunctional our LY is and how backwards and ugly Taipei is compares to their awesome world class cities like Shanghai or Beijing, they won’t revolt just because there’s a democracy hangin’ there.
Taiwan’s democracy is not that influential.[/quote]
The PRC economy will not have growth on steroids forever. As people get richer they start valuing more than just growth. When things get tough for the CCP (as they eventually do for any government) the example of Taiwan may be more subversive.And ask yourself why Beijing is unwilling to allow democracy in HK if it is no threat to CCP rule?