Is Beijing Warning Taiwan?

[quote=“Gain”][quote=“cfimages”]
a) China didn’t have anywhere near the economic power then that it does now.
b) The KMT still controlled the LY then.
c) Taiwan’s economy is more reliant on China now than it was then.[/quote]
a) It was already the 3rd largest economy back in 2008, and it’s the 2nd largest now. They were already a giant six years ago. If they wanted to smother us, they were more than capable of doing it then.
b) Yes, but CBS always talked about TI all the time and it upset China greatly, he never backed down on Taiwan’s sovereignty, the fact that pan-blue camp was larger in legislature didn’t make that much of difference. Even if DPP controlled the LY back then, they still wouldn’t declare independence.
c) Yes, but we were already very reliant on China back in 2007 and 2008, the economic ties pretty much started then.
And as everybody could see, being reliant on China does not benefit 98% of the Taiwanese people, so cutting the ties might actually be a good thing.[/quote]

By 2008, China knew they were more likely than not to get a China-friendly govt after the elections. They didn’t need to do anything but wait. Pretty much from the time Lien Chan met with the CCP in 2005, or Shih Ming-te’s red shirts in 2006, it was pretty obvious that the KMT would take power in 2008. You need to compare the China of today with the China if 2004 or earlier. A very different beast.

Cutting ties may well be a good thing but you’d need to replace that business from elsewhere, and that wouldn’t happen overnight. No country would be rushing to make trade deals with Taiwan, and you can bet China would be doing everything it could to make it even harder.

Today’s China has a lot more economic power and influence than the China of a decade ago.

Who are the KMT threatening? Isn’t the topic Beijing threatening Taiwan?

[quote=“cfimages”]

Who are the KMT threatening? Isn’t the topic Beijing threatening Taiwan?[/quote]
I meant KMT won’t benefit from China’s threatening.

Well then let’s prepare for a recession, if you’re so sure about that. I don’t think they’d do something that blatantly obvious.

[quote]
The PRC economy will not have growth on steroids forever. As people get richer they start valuing more than just growth. When things get tough for the CCP (as they eventually do for any government) the example of Taiwan may be more subversive.And ask yourself why Beijing is unwilling to allow democracy in HK if it is no threat to CCP rule?[/quote]
There are plenty of reasons why Beijing is unwilling to allow democracy in HK, what you have in mind might be one of them.
But attacking Taiwan because Taiwan has democracy is illogical. You said As people get richer they start valuing more than just growth. And people would just stop there because Taiwan’s democracy is destroyed? I don’t think so. They’d still demand democracy if they desire it that much, regardless of Taiwan.

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”][quote=“Charlie Phillips”]
The invasion has already been done, without the D-Day drama.
Buses, not bombs. Renminbi, not bullets[/quote]

Don’t forget that Taiwan has stinky tofu. And thousand-year eggs. China has no defense against this.[/quote]

There’s plenty of stinky tofu and thousand-year eggs in China as well. Don’t put your faith in those goods.

There’s no such thing as Beijing warming. Definitely not man-made, either.

The governments, militaries, and other power holders in the USA, Japan, China, and Russia all have various reason to start a war or to get involved in onw, and eastern Asia looks like a “perfect” place for that.

[quote=“redpolko”]
Why do you think a US tired of foreign wars would want to start a new one? What vital national interest would be at stake,especially since the US has already conceded that Taiwan belongs to the PRC?[/quote]

US wouldn’t be the one starting a war.

US did not already concede that Taiwan belonged to the PRC. US actually denies such assumption about US’s position. This you should know already.

By the way it’s not a war. Just operation. Taiwan is not a sovereign state and there is no sovereign to declare war on.

Taiwan is at the geographic intersection of US, Japan and China. Think of the Vann diagram.

They happen to be GDP1, GDP2, GDP3.

The chance of any two simultaneously hand Formosa to the third is a definitive zero. It is zero because of many factors, but the most important factor is that US does not want to become China’s neighbour. Think about it, do you want to be China’s neighbour? To the east of Formosa is US soil. There’s no islands or land in between. Just think about it.

My take
Saber rattling as per usual

China will not attack because they will lose economically.
US would not defend if China attacked, since it could potentially become WW3. See Putin’s taking of Ukraine and Georgia, a lot of talking but no action.
Taiwan would not last a day, I bet the conscripted military would all desert. Or better yet, China can just sit back, while all the planes crash from pilot error
Taiwan’s democracy has no meaning to China… its like a mosquito on Godzilla in terms of irritation.

Now back to the regularly scheduled program of nothing.

I know what you think you’re arguing here, but it’s a two-sided sword. If it is universally accepted that Taiwan is not a sovereign state, then a hypothetical Chinese invasion (whatever the pretenses) would be treated the same way as a “crackdown” in Xinjiang or Tibet. This is not in Taiwan’s favor.

The ROC is a legitimate government that is recognized by 22 countries, so it is in fact possible for the PRC to go to war with the ROC. Although really the two governments are still at war since the fighting just stopped but no treaty was ever signed – for better or worse.

I know what you think you’re arguing here, but it’s a two-sided sword. If it is universally accepted that Taiwan is not a sovereign state, then a hypothetical Chinese invasion (whatever the pretenses) would be treated the same way as a “crackdown” in Xinjiang or Tibet. This is not in Taiwan’s favor.[/quote]

Would have been a good point except US and Japan do not border China over there. They border China right here. :slight_smile: Don’t want to annoy you by repeatedly emphasizing that real estate is all about location.

[quote=“Hokwongwei”]
The ROC is a legitimate government that is recognized by 22 countries…[/quote]

This narrative is true but it does not mean that these countries have a say in whether Formosa is territory of this “government.” It is not too hard to understand if I recognize you as someone I sign a contract with, but whether the boots you’re wearing or the umbrella you’re carrying are you own possession does not concern me. The roc “government” can tomorrow occupy the Senkaku for 24 hours. The same 22 countries probably don’t care either.

[quote=“dan2006”]My take
Saber rattling as per usual

China will not attack because they will lose economically.
US would not defend if China attacked, since it could potentially become WW3. See Putin’s taking of Ukraine and Georgia, a lot of talking but no action.
Taiwan would not last a day, I bet the conscripted military would all desert. Or better yet, China can just sit back, while all the planes crash from pilot error
Taiwan’s democracy has no meaning to China… its like a mosquito on Godzilla in terms of irritation.

Now back to the regularly scheduled program of nothing.[/quote]
I agree. Taiwan is a democracy and???
Korea is a democracy too and China doesn’t give a shix to it. Democracy or not is just an excuse, a stage, that China or her rivals like to play propaganda on.
And the feeling is mutual that most Taiwanese couldn’t care less that China is or isn’t a democracy.

So, if Korea being a democracy doesn’t irritate China, but Taiwan being a democracy does. Then, what does it say about the Chinese culture then?

[quote=“sofun”][quote=“dan2006”]My take
Saber rattling as per usual

China will not attack because they will lose economically.
US would not defend if China attacked, since it could potentially become WW3. See Putin’s taking of Ukraine and Georgia, a lot of talking but no action.
Taiwan would not last a day, I bet the conscripted military would all desert. Or better yet, China can just sit back, while all the planes crash from pilot error
Taiwan’s democracy has no meaning to China… its like a mosquito on Godzilla in terms of irritation.

Now back to the regularly scheduled program of nothing.[/quote]
I agree. Taiwan is a democracy and???
Korea is a democracy too and China doesn’t give a shix to it. Democracy or not is just an excuse, a stage, that China or her rivals like to play propaganda on.
And the feeling is mutual that most Taiwanese couldn’t care less that China is or isn’t a democracy.

So, if Korea being a democracy doesn’t irritate China, but Taiwan being a democracy does. Then, what does it say about the Chinese culture then?[/quote]
If the CCP really doesn’t care about democracy,why doesn’t it allow truly free elections in HK? I think the CCP fears the spread of the democratic virus.

[quote=“Gain”][quote=“cfimages”]

Who are the KMT threatening? Isn’t the topic Beijing threatening Taiwan?[/quote]
I meant KMT won’t benefit from China’s threatening.

Well then let’s prepare for a recession, if you’re so sure about that. I don’t think they’d do something that blatantly obvious.

[quote]
The PRC economy will not have growth on steroids forever. As people get richer they start valuing more than just growth. When things get tough for the CCP (as they eventually do for any government) the example of Taiwan may be more subversive.And ask yourself why Beijing is unwilling to allow democracy in HK if it is no threat to CCP rule?[/quote]
There are plenty of reasons why Beijing is unwilling to allow democracy in HK, what you have in mind might be one of them.
But attacking Taiwan because Taiwan has democracy is illogical. You said As people get richer they start valuing more than just growth. And people would just stop there because Taiwan’s democracy is destroyed? I don’t think so. They’d still demand democracy if they desire it that much, regardless of Taiwan.[/quote]I agree controlling Taiwan would more prevent any possible future democratic movement in the PRC but it would slow things down. People are more likely to consider ideas that are demonstrated to be successful. The PRC introduced capitalism because of the success of Taiwan,HK etc. An idea’s success in another Chinese society carries more weight than if it were merely succeeding in a very different culture.

PRC didn’t introduce capitalism because of the success of Taiwan and HK, they introduced it because they were a fucking mess so they had to. It had nothing to deal with Hong Kong, let alone Taiwan.

[quote]
If the CCP really doesn’t care about democracy,why doesn’t it allow truly free elections in HK? I think the CCP fears the spread of the democratic virus.[/quote]
Totally different scenarios. By letting Hong Kong freely elect their leader, it’d seem like that Beijing “granted” Hong Kong democracy(even though in reality, it’s HKers efforts), however Taiwan’s democracy is no different than any other democracy of other neighbors of China. It was grown in Taiwan and was fought by the Taiwanese, PRC had absolutely nothing to deal with it. They probably fear that the former might cause some chain effects within other Chinese provinces/cities as people might go “why did you give Hong Kong democracy not us”, while in the latter, the democracy has been pushing for decades, if it’s really that strong, it already had spread.

Taiwan’s democracy is not that influential, it’s not even that successful in the first place. If they’re gonna invade, preventing the democratic virus from spreading is not gonna be the reason. They have plenty of other (nonsensical) sources of justification.

They would invade for the most potent reason of all in China, mianzi.
Face.
Nothing to do with democracy whatsoever! Its also not for strategic reasons, as the act of taking over Taiwan would cause a lot of problems for China.
We can never discount a future invasion, the recent history of Ukraine is unfortunately a great reminder of this. Russia is much weaker than China but they still majority backed an invasion.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]They would invade for the most potent reason of all in China, mianzi.
Face.
Nothing to do with democracy whatsoever! Its also not for strategic reasons, as the act of taking over Taiwan would cause a lot of problems for China.
We can never discount a future invasion, the recent history of Ukraine is unfortunately a great reminder of this. Russia is much weaker than China but they still majority backed an invasion.[/quote]
Yeah I agree. That’s kinda the only reason they’re still claiming this insignificant island tbqh. At least one of the most important reasons.

[quote=“Gain”][quote=“headhonchoII”]They would invade for the most potent reason of all in China, mianzi.
Face.
Nothing to do with democracy whatsoever! Its also not for strategic reasons, as the act of taking over Taiwan would cause a lot of problems for China.
We can never discount a future invasion, the recent history of Ukraine is unfortunately a great reminder of this. Russia is much weaker than China but they still majority backed an invasion.[/quote]
Yeah I agree. That’s kinda the only reason they’re still claiming this insignificant island tbqh. At least one of the most important reasons.[/quote]

No! Say it isn’t so!

Surely our glorious comrades are above such petty, childish vanities.

Authoritarian Capitalism had always been the goal of the Generalissimo. It was difficult for him to implement before Taiwan because of the Japanese invasion. That and he had to unite China first.

[quote=“redpolko”]
If the CCP really doesn’t care about democracy,why doesn’t it allow truly free elections in HK? I think the CCP fears the spread of the democratic virus.[/quote]

You have to understand that the majority of the Chinese people do not want democracy IN CHINA.

There are many reasons but they do not tell you all the reasons. You’re only told on a need-to-know basis. The truth is, and all you need to know is that Chinese people don’t want it IN China.

They want democracy in general as long as they can get it somewhere not China. But in China, they don’t want it. (CCP cannot “give” democracy not because it cares about this particular political ideology or another. CCP cannot give democracy because the Chinese don’t want it in China. CCP is practical.)

Theres a lot of suspicion of populism and grass roots movements in China for obvious reasons, plus it’s drilled into their heads that the warring kingdoms and ‘China divided’ were caused by the fractious nature of Chinese and that they need strong leadership to withstand ‘foreign influences’ show who want to do an opium war II on China.
There are also a lot of middle class and wealthy who fear giving poor people the vote. Perhaps this is the biggest reason so far that democracy hasn’t advanced in China.