Is Beijing Warning Taiwan?

Politics Taiwan Politics
61

When you consider the matter carefully, you will notice that in many countries a lot of people prefer non-democratic systems.
Start with the governments of many nominally democratic countries (my country, Japan, being a good example): governments usually try to get away with as much non-democratic stuff as possible.
Then look at business: many business people couldn’t care less about democracy. In fact, lots of multilateral negotiations concerning trade and investment have been conducted in secret and their results shoved down the people’s throats, and hardly anybody has given a hoot.
And look at fundamentalist religious people (plenty of those in the US and also in Japan, not just in Arabia). They don’t think much of democracy, either.
Next, in those countries where a large part of the population can hardly read and write, many of the educated people think that giving all people the same voting power makes little sense - well, i am afraid they are right: democracy requires an educated and informed population. That in many countries the elites deliberately sabotage general education is another problem, but the fact remains: democracy cannot function without an educated an informed populace.
Finally: apathy. There are plenty of humans who, as long as they can indulge in consumption and have fucking partners, they couldn’t care less about the rest of the world.

One could perhaps excuse it if someone were to suggest that the future of democracy doesn’t look bright, considering how in the recent past things have been getting worse all around.

62

Well, and rightly so. Who in their right mind would want to be ruled by poor people? There’s nothing to be gained and no point in having us all smell bad, surely.

63

[quote=“yuli”]When you consider the matter carefully, you will notice that in many countries a lot of people prefer non-democratic systems.
Start with the governments of many nominally democratic countries (my country, Japan, being a good example): governments usually to get away with as much non-democratic stuff as possible.
Then look at business: many business people couldn’t care less about democracy. In fact, lots of multilateral negotiations concerning trade and investment have been conducted in secret and their results shoved down the people’s throats, and hardly anybody has given a hoot.
And look at fundamentalist religious people (plenty of those in the US and also in Japan, not just in Arabia). They don’t think much of democracy, either.
Next, in those countries where a large part of the population can hardly read and write, many of the educated people think that giving all people the same voting power makes little sense - well, I am afraid they are right: democracy requires an educated and informed population. That in many countries the elites deliberately sabotage general education is another problem, but the fact remains: democracy cannot function without an educated an informed populace.
Finally: apathy. There are plenty of humans who, as long as they can indulge in consumption and have fucking partners, they couldn’t care less about the rest of the world.

One could perhaps excuse it if someone were to suggest that the future of democracy doesn’t look bright, considering how in the recent past things have been getting worse all around.[/quote]
You may indeed be right about democracy’s world-wide prospects but I do think the people of Taiwan will eventually regret not working together more to form a more united front against CCP efforts.

64

[quote=“sofun”][quote=“redpolko”]
If the CCP really doesn’t care about democracy,why doesn’t it allow truly free elections in HK? I think the CCP fears the spread of the democratic virus.[/quote]

You have to understand that the majority of the Chinese people do not want democracy IN CHINA.

There are many reasons but they do not tell you all the reasons. You’re only told on a need-to-know basis. The truth is, and all you need to know is that Chinese people don’t want it IN China.

They want democracy in general as long as they can get it somewhere not China. But in China, they don’t want it. (CCP cannot “give” democracy not because it cares about this particular political ideology or another. CCP cannot give democracy because the Chinese don’t want it in China. CCP is practical.)[/quote]
I agree that at least for now there is no widespread desire for democracy but that could change.There are various protests everyday somewhere in the PRC. Farmers losing their land to some government backed developer seem to be a common example. Those farmers might care about democracy if they thought it could help them keep their land. People may get tired of other restrictions too. I think the CCP is still haunted by the collapse of communism in eastern Europe. Politics is more art than science. One can never be completely sure how popular political thinking will develop. The CCP wants to insure it will be in power for a long time and that means keeping the people convinced that there is no viable alternative. That is why I think they are concerned about free elections in HK. The bad publicity of the recent protests has not helped the party’s international image. It only makes sense if the CCP is concerned about something more important than that image.

65

Professor Minxin Pei thinks some form of democratization will happen on the mainland in the next 10 or 15 years. I’m not so sure, Xi certainly seems hellbent on preventing it from happening. I think Xi is trying to move the mainland towards a Singaporean model of government.

66

Not gonna happen within the next 10 or 15 years.

Ok I was rude, maybe that’ll happen, just that I think the possibility is incredibly slim.

67

[quote=“redpolko”]
I agree that at least for now there is no widespread desire for democracy but that could change.There are various protests everyday somewhere in the PRC. Farmers losing their land to some government backed developer seem to be a common example. Those farmers might care about democracy if they thought it could help them keep their land. People may get tired of other restrictions too. I think the CCP is still haunted by the collapse of communism in eastern Europe. Politics is more art than science. One can never be completely sure how popular political thinking will develop. The CCP wants to insure it will be in power for a long time and that means keeping the people convinced that there is no viable alternative. That is why I think they are concerned about free elections in HK. The bad publicity of the recent protests has not helped the party’s international image. It only makes sense if the CCP is concerned about something more important than that image.[/quote]

Okay, why do most people associate protests with wanting democracy? :loco:

also, it is not true that the Chinese at the bottom want democracy while the Chinese on the top don’t. Based on my in depth understanding, the reality actually the other way round.

If you’re Chinese at the bottom, and knowing what it means to be Chinese, and seeing how it works, you’d be pretty pissed to have that fantasy of one day becoming one of the top guys shattered by Democracy and Rule of Law. You may or may not be the lucky one, but there have been so many previous examples in 5000 years. So many nobody became emperors and had the greatest enjoyment of life a man could have, no matter how brief the moment was.

The sense of self-fulfilment is different. The aspiration is very different. The world view is different. This is why the usual “china experts” always get it wrong.

68

I don’t think there’s a contradiction here. Xi Jinping will run the country until 2023 barring the unexpected. After that, who knows what the next guy in charge will want to do. There is always that slim hope! Latch onto it.

69

Since when have China’s “warnings” ever had any sort of effect?

70

[quote=“sofun”][quote=“redpolko”]
I agree that at least for now there is no widespread desire for democracy but that could change.There are various protests everyday somewhere in the PRC. Farmers losing their land to some government backed developer seem to be a common example. Those farmers might care about democracy if they thought it could help them keep their land. People may get tired of other restrictions too. I think the CCP is still haunted by the collapse of communism in eastern Europe. Politics is more art than science. One can never be completely sure how popular political thinking will develop. The CCP wants to insure it will be in power for a long time and that means keeping the people convinced that there is no viable alternative. That is why I think they are concerned about free elections in HK. The bad publicity of the recent protests has not helped the party’s international image. It only makes sense if the CCP is concerned about something more important than that image.[/quote]

Okay, why do most people associate protests with wanting democracy? :loco:

also, it is not true that the Chinese at the bottom want democracy while the Chinese on the top don’t. Based on my in depth understanding, the reality actually the other way round.

If you’re Chinese at the bottom, and knowing what it means to be Chinese, and seeing how it works, you’d be pretty pissed to have that fantasy of one day becoming one of the top guys shattered by Democracy and Rule of Law. You may or may not be the lucky one, but there have been so many previous examples in 5000 years. So many nobody became emperors and had the greatest enjoyment of life a man could have, no matter how brief the moment was.

The sense of self-fulfilment is different. The aspiration is very different. The world view is different. This is why the usual “china experts” always get it wrong.[/quote]
Actually a protest is an effort to make the government change a policy and democracy is a more organized way of facilitating that process of change through popular feedback so those who protest probably have an interest in a government more responsive to their desires.Dictatorships can be responsive to some degree but democracies are much better at it.As for the guy at the bottom who dreams of being at the top,that is just as possible (if not more so) in a democracy.A lot of mainland Chinese know little about the theory and practice of democracy but they have a good excuse.The CCP has every interest in preventing the education of its people in that area.No one can have real opinion on democracy until they understand it.The CCP’s fear is that a thriving democracy in HK would make a real contribution to mainlander education on the subject.

71

[quote=“sofun”]also, it is not true that the Chinese at the bottom want democracy while the Chinese on the top don’t. Based on my in depth understanding, the reality actually the other way round.

If you’re Chinese at the bottom, and knowing what it means to be Chinese, and seeing how it works, you’d be pretty pissed to have that fantasy of one day becoming one of the top guys shattered by Democracy and Rule of Law. You may or may not be the lucky one, but there have been so many previous examples in 5000 years. So many nobody became emperors and had the greatest enjoyment of life a man could have, no matter how brief the moment was.

The sense of self-fulfilment is different. The aspiration is very different. The world view is different. This is why the usual “china experts” always get it wrong.[/quote]

I completely agree with this. People at the bottom of the heap are usually waiting for a ‘hero’ to ‘raise them up’. Most of the time, they are not even aware of the freedoms that they already have (for example, the freedom to educate themselves). The last thing they want is the responsibility that genuine democracy implies: when you’re at the bottom of the cliff looking up, it’s an awful long climb. And as sofun said, a fundamentally unfair society gives the criminally-inclined a chance (however tiny, or illusory) to achieve power, money and fame without really working for it.

The guys at the top usually have slightly more social awareness and make a choice: do we keep the people under the thumb and crush them hard when they get fractious, or do we try to fix the mess this country is in? Most countries choose the first. It’s easier, and no doubt a lot more fun. “Democracy” is the final component in the latter. Before that happens, a whole lot of boring technical stuff needs to be in place first: property rights, rule of law, education, and a functioning civil service. Trying to run a democracy without those things is like trying to herd rabid cats. I can’t think of a single historical example of a country where democracy took root without something to grow on.

72

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”][quote=“Charlie Phillips”]
The invasion has already been done, without the D-Day drama.
Buses, not bombs. Renminbi, not bullets[/quote]

Don’t forget that Taiwan has stinky tofu. And thousand-year eggs. China has no defense against this.[/quote]

Stinky tofu and thousand-year eggs are from China, most Chinese love them. Perhaps betel-nut girls would work?

73

[quote=“finley”][quote=“sofun”]also, it is not true that the Chinese at the bottom want democracy while the Chinese on the top don’t. Based on my in depth understanding, the reality actually the other way round.

If you’re Chinese at the bottom, and knowing what it means to be Chinese, and seeing how it works, you’d be pretty pissed to have that fantasy of one day becoming one of the top guys shattered by Democracy and Rule of Law. You may or may not be the lucky one, but there have been so many previous examples in 5000 years. So many nobody became emperors and had the greatest enjoyment of life a man could have, no matter how brief the moment was.

The sense of self-fulfilment is different. The aspiration is very different. The world view is different. This is why the usual “china experts” always get it wrong.[/quote]

I completely agree with this. People at the bottom of the heap are usually waiting for a ‘hero’ to ‘raise them up’. .[/quote]

Yes, poor people at the bottom do not care about freedom or democracy because they do not have the wisdom, time and luxury to think about democracy. They only care about making more money so they can afford better food and better life.

74

[quote=“sofun”]

Okay, why do most people associate protests with wanting democracy? :loco:

also, it is not true that the Chinese at the bottom want democracy while the Chinese on the top don’t. Based on my in depth understanding, the reality actually the other way round.

If you’re Chinese at the bottom, and knowing what it means to be Chinese, and seeing how it works, you’d be pretty pissed to have that fantasy of one day becoming one of the top guys shattered by Democracy and Rule of Law. You may or may not be the lucky one, but there have been so many previous examples in 5000 years. So many nobody became emperors and had the greatest enjoyment of life a man could have, no matter how brief the moment was.

The sense of self-fulfilment is different. The aspiration is very different. The world view is different. This is why the usual “china experts” always get it wrong.[/quote]

Agreed on the first point. Not really sure how this turned into a black/white discussion about whether or not Chinese people want democracy, but that is putting a spin on it that doesn’t at all jive with the facts on the ground. Unrest can almost always be traced to a specific grievance against the government (overwhelmingly local) or some external party that enjoys the protection of the government.

With that in mind, the point you then go on to make seems rather incongruous, not to mention completely counter-intuitive and utterly at odds with my own personal experience. To see if I have this right, you are saying that your average LBX (老百姓）driving a taxi in Lanzhou or sweeping gutters somewhere doesn’t want the government to change because they believe that they have a chance of climbing the ranks in the Party? Can you elaborate a bit more on what your ‘in-depth understanding’ consists of? Like, you have done extensive surveys of people in China and they said that they want to maintain the current system because they think they have a chance to come out on top? Or something else? I am truly curious.

If we don’t think of democracy as a binary thing - after all, as has been pointed out, even western countries vary considerably on the scale of democracy - but instead begin to think of it more as a question of gradient and trends, a China that continues to grow economically basically has to become more democratic going forward. There is a reason why Japan/S Korea/Taiwan all became more democratic as they came up against the middle-income trap, and it isn’t that they crossed off all the material items on their shopping list and decided they wanted democracy next. When people have greater autonomy in the economic sphere, historically this has carried over into the desire for greater political autonomy. The oft talked about economic transition that China needs to make entails a greater role for the private sphere, by definition at the expense of the State, which is really a de-facto move up the scale of greater democratization.

The change will certainly be more subtle than all of the sudden one day people demand the right to vote. In terms of unrest threatening the current regime, on a short-term horizon, the useful analogy is dynastic change rather than democratic revolution.

75

[quote=“zeinstein”][quote=“sofun”]

Okay, why do most people associate protests with wanting democracy? :loco:

also, it is not true that the Chinese at the bottom want democracy while the Chinese on the top don’t. Based on my in depth understanding, the reality actually the other way round.

If you’re Chinese at the bottom, and knowing what it means to be Chinese, and seeing how it works, you’d be pretty pissed to have that fantasy of one day becoming one of the top guys shattered by Democracy and Rule of Law. You may or may not be the lucky one, but there have been so many previous examples in 5000 years. So many nobody became emperors and had the greatest enjoyment of life a man could have, no matter how brief the moment was.

The sense of self-fulfilment is different. The aspiration is very different. The world view is different. This is why the usual “china experts” always get it wrong.[/quote]

Agreed on the first point. Not really sure how this turned into a black/white discussion about whether or not Chinese people want democracy, but that is putting a spin on it that doesn’t at all jive with the facts on the ground. Unrest can almost always be traced to a specific grievance against the government (overwhelmingly local) or some external party that enjoys the protection of the government.

With that in mind, the point you then go on to make seems rather incongruous, not to mention completely counter-intuitive and utterly at odds with my own personal experience. To see if I have this right, you are saying that your average LBX (老百姓）driving a taxi in Lanzhou or sweeping gutters somewhere doesn’t want the government to change because they believe that they have a chance of climbing the ranks in the Party? Can you elaborate a bit more on what your ‘in-depth understanding’ consists of? Like, you have done extensive surveys of people in China and they said that they want to maintain the current system because they think they have a chance to come out on top? Or something else? I am truly curious.

If we don’t think of democracy as a binary thing - after all, as has been pointed out, even western countries vary considerably on the scale of democracy - but instead begin to think of it more as a question of gradient and trends, a China that continues to grow economically basically has to become more democratic going forward. There is a reason why Japan/S Korea/Taiwan all became more democratic as they came up against the middle-income trap, and it isn’t that they crossed off all the material items on their shopping list and decided they wanted democracy next. When people have greater autonomy in the economic sphere, historically this has carried over into the desire for greater political autonomy. The oft talked about economic transition that China needs to make entails a greater role for the private sphere, by definition at the expense of the State, which is really a de-facto move up the scale of greater democratization.

The change will certainly be more subtle than all of the sudden one day people demand the right to vote. In terms of unrest threatening the current regime, on a short-term horizon, the useful analogy is dynastic change rather than democratic revolution.[/quote]

I have been in Mainland China a lot recently and have heard a lot of murmurs about democracy from taxi drivers and co-workers. Not clandestine evidence, but for me a feeling a change of sorts in attitudes is coming.

76

It is my opinion that China is going to move towards democracy a bit faster than most anticipate…but while I hear a lot more critical speaking of the government in general, there is still a strong tendency to gravitate towards a personality cult of their leaders. A few months ago, when I was in Beijing, people would still talk about Xi as if everything he touches turns to gold.

77

Beijing is hardly the barometer for national opinion though. Its the most nationalistic place in the whole country.

78

Do you seriously think that CCP is going to move to democracy willingly, absolutely not. As the victors of the wars they believe it is their right to rule China, like if KMT had won the war they wouldn’t have moved to democracy either. Taiwan is a democracy because it needs U.S support. There is the saying in China 没有共产党没有新中国 which I actually believe to be somewhat true, like the reforms the CCP has done are incomparable in the modern world. There seems to be some kind of idea in the west that democracy is the destiny of every system, but I think China is proving that to be false. Also if you look at Singapore, which is “democracy” yes, but the same party has ruled SINCE 1959 because it’s rooted so deep into society that it basically controls the system.

79

I think there are parts of the CCP that would like to see a partial move to democracy, especially if the party is to survive. There are numerous thinktanks who are looking at the different options for democracy in China. The standard of living in Singapore is incomparable to that in China and the CCP breach the social contract at definitely a local but also a national level on a daily basis.

没有共产党没有新中国

Is not a saying, but the official party line. However this is running a little thin for some people.

80

沒有共產黨，就會有一個新中國

When there is no Communist Party, there will be a new China.