Is Taiwan in the upswing?


#41

For me as a European it is really difficult to imagine the US going into armed conflict with China over Taiwan. The US would do anything it can to prevent annexation I am sure (strategic reasons and whatnot), but I just can’t imagine war between them over Taiwan.


#42

There might be a paywall on the link, so attached the relevant chart.


#43

At the risk of sounding rude I’m not holding my breath.


#44

Nonsense, do you think solar powered homes only have electricity during the day?? :roll:

Deep tech

As well


#45

Nope, you cannot go 100% renewable on a larger scale at the moment. Your examples are of some small towns in rural US, and your links also point out that in times of high demand they will buy power from out of town. Here is a bit more of the underlying reason for this and what the issues that make the transition hard https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21717365-wind-and-solar-energy-are-disrupting-century-old-model-providing-electricity-what-will


#46

I can understand your viewpoint but that’s not how the world works. Read up on Game Theory it’s quite interesting. An example, assume the end goal of the US is to prevent an invasion, if China attacks Taiwan it would be too costly for the US and Japan to enter war on Taiwan’s side and will therefore back down. But if the US is serious it will actually go like this, when USA sees China getting crazy it will garrison some ships and personnel in Taiwan, after a joint maneuver. Now if China attacks it will in effect attack the US as well, destroying US bases, ships, and killing and/or capturing thousands of troops and therefore guaranteed action on the US alliance part. China would be insane to attack in this situation. So what happened is that the US paid the economic and political costs for a base in Taiwan (showing commitment to protecting its interests) but has prevented a war.

P.S. The only major caveat is that Game theory assumes rational players and understanding of each others goals.


#47

I’m confident all sides, even China, are rational. It’s also an IR strategy to act otherwise.

Even Trump is rational. Some say his apparent cuckoo-ism is what got SK and NK on the right path.


#48

Thanks for the laugh at the end.


#49

China will not bomb or invade Taiwan. They don’t have to. Many Taiwanese are indifferent. They just want to have a house, a job that can provide for their needs, and enough to retire on or retirement they can count on. Who governs them is of little concern or consequence to many. If it is the KMT, fine. If it is the DPP, fine. If it is China, fine. Of course there are people who are strongly against or for unification with the PRC, however many more just don’t really care. China knows this and they will play their economic cards to win. They will take over the island financially.

As far as Taiwan being on the upswing…
Yes and no. I think it always feels like 2 steps forwards and one step backwards.
Over the past 15 years I have seen positive changes in infrastructure. Many newer buildings are shedding the depressed concrete slab, iron cage look for a more modern clean look. Sidewalks are now actually sidewalks on many streets. Laws are changing and people’s perception of keeping the environment clean is on the upswing. Taiwan has a long way to go, we are talking decades, before they are on equal footing with Japan or Western countries.


#50

As foreign residents of Taiwan it’s just important to know the facts if you’re betting the bank on the U.S. being “committed” to defending Taiwan militarily in the event of an attack by China:

FINDINGS AND DECLARATION OF POLICY
SEC. 2. (a) The President having terminated governmental relations
between the United States and the governing authorities on Taiwan
recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to
January 1, 1979, the Congress fmds that the enactment of this Act is
necessary—
(1) to help maintain peace, security, and stability in the
Western Pacific; and
(2) to promote the foreign policy of the United States by
authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other
relations between the people of the United States and the people
on Taiwan.
(b) It is the policy of the United States—
(1) to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly
commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of
the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people
on the China mainland and all other peoples of the Western
Pacific area;
(2) to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the
political, security, and economic interests of the United States,
and are matters of international concern;
(3) to make clear that the United States decision to establish
diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests
upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined
by peaceful means;
(4) to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by
> other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a
threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and
of grave concern to the United States;
(5) to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and
(6) to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any
resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize
the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on
Taiwan.


#51

It’s intentionally ambiguous. Otherwise, it’ll create a moral hazard problem where Taiwan would just do something reckless (like declare independence or something to that extent).


#52

Yep. Everyone knows what the TRA says and that it’s not binding.


#53

Reunification is not an option. Look what’s happening in Hong Kong. A majority of Taiwanese recently polled said they’d take up arms to fight in the case of an invasion.


#54

What is that supposed to be?


#55

Taiwanese… take up arms? :wink:

If it was Korea I’d agree but nobody here will fight a losing battle


#56

Rich and powerful Taiwanese didn’t invest in all those foreign passports for nothing.


#57

I’ll fight and so will my crack militia of burnt out has-been English teachers residing in the hills behind 101. We have a vast arsenal of slingshots and Molotov cocktails and more to the point an intimate knowledge of the intricate system of mines honeycombing those hills. We will never surrender (until we run out of beer and baked beans at which point we may be lured out of the hills by strategically placed care packages.)


#58

The PLA will bring over some 四川辣妹 to lure you out.
Problem solved


#59

We will be powerless to resist. Especially if they bring some hotpot.


#60

70% of young Taiwanese willing to fight in case China invades.
http://m.focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201804190036.aspx