Is Taiwan in the upswing?


#61

Yeah, I’d take those results with a container load of salt. I’m not seeing a great many battle-ready youngsters out there. Not unless the final showdown was a Pokemon battle.


#62

Sorry, but if you take this seriously, it really shows that you are living in the US and not in Taiwan.


#63

Of course it’s ambiguous, but if the PRC takes Taiwan, it will be able to threaten Japan and Korea, and end the USA as a power in the Western Pacific, one of the major economic hubs of the world. The USA will naturally resist this outcome. For that matter, China will be reluctant to do something that might distrupt trans-Pacific trade ties, and thus its own economy, resulting in political instability. (The USA makes a similar calculation.)

On the other hand, if something happens to distract the USA (getting drawn into a Middle Eastern war, let us say), and the economy was looking bad anyway, then the PRC might just go for it. Of course they would be considering the personality of whoever the US president happened to be at the time. (God help us.) The actual military matchup is full of unknowns–China’s is rickety and inexperienced, but the USA’s relies on aging structures that may be vulnerable to technological advances, and nobody is very confident in Taiwan’s.


#64

Elections turnout in Taiwan does not support your assertion that Taiwanese are indifferent to whom governs them. Usually the elections turnout is somewhere around 70%, which is quite high comparatively(e.g. US 2016 elections was 58%).


#65

You are right I live in the states. And that Sunflower thingy just happened not too long ago.


#66

It should be a pretty even match until the U.S. starts needing replacement parts.

We don’t even know the scope of our defense industrial-base vulnerabilities, especially those tiers of our supply chain controlled by our potential adversaries, as the Pentagon is only in the early stages of mapping vulnerabilities. – Brig. Gen. John Adams


#67

I very much hope you are right. Problems I see:

  1. US businesses are making bank in China. They don’t want the US to go to war.
  2. Up-and-rising government officials have incentives to make a name for themselves by building bridges to China. Creating conflict with China does nothing for your résumé.
  3. Like Lee Kuan Yew said, this is China’s #1 issue. This is a peripheral issue for the US.

#68

Bleh


#69

here here…now we’re talking. although living in taiwan has likely put me off main land accents. its a damn shame.


#70

I think this is a misquote… it probably should read 70% of young Taiwanese will take flight in case China invades. Meaning they would most likely run away, etc.


#71

Ucraine is not a word. :grin:


#72

He meant your cranium.


#73

If that’s true, Taiwan deserves to be invaded.


#74

Where are they going to run away to?


#75

Do you think you know better than the US Secretary of Defence about what’s binding and what’s not?

“The department is changing its operational plans and approaches to deter aggression, fulfill its statutory obligations to Taiwan, defend allies, and prepare for a wider-than-usual range of contingencies in the region,” US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter, Nov. 7, 2015


#76

Ucrania!

Ukraine. There you go.


#77

I don’t know. Do you think he said the obligations were binding, specifically, legally binding under the wording of the TRA?


#78

#79

After all Canadia is just more Minnesota.


#80

Minnesota - everywhere should be more like Minnesota! Where the women are beautiful and all the children are above average - or something like that…