Is Taiwan in the upswing?


The statutory details:

The Taiwan Relations Act does not guarantee the USA will intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan nor does it relinquish it, it primary purpose is to ensure the US’s Taiwan policy will not be changed unilaterally by the president and ensure any decision to defend Taiwan will be made with the consent of congress.


What are the obligations that Carter spoke about?

Could you explain why such obligations ought to be fulfilled by the US Department of Defence but not the foreign affairs department or any other department?

The US Department of Defence has statutory obligations to fulfill. What are they?


You’ll have to ask him.


You should look it up.


How much you paying?


We can talk about what those statutory obligations are. The statutory obligations, as far as the US War Department is concerned, are " to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan."

To maintain the capacity to win a war over Taiwan - that’s the statutory obligations that the US War Department is going to fulfill.


If you don’t have the capacity to win the war, then what good is a defence treaty? There’s no deterrence anyway, and you won’t even honour the treaty. Even if you honour the treaty, you won’t win anyway. That kind of treaty would be useless to Taiwan anyway.

But if you do have the capacity to win the war, that means China is going to loose the war IF you interfere. China looses, US wins. That’s all it matters.

For reference see Harris Formula for deterrence below. The signaling will require US port call and US boots on the ground, because that’s the only signaling that will penetrate the thick blanket of Orwellian Nonsense and reach 1 billion of Chinese. The Chinese people want pictures and videos as proof, otherwise they rather believe in the information provided by party propaganda. The resolve part is easy to verify, because the US Executive Branch has identified that China is an aggressive nation and the threat it poses requires US “whole of nation” approach. The resolve is there.


Capability x Resolve x Signaling = Deterrence.

All three elements, capability, resolve, and signaling, must be present for deterrence to exist. And because we’re doing multiplication, not addition, if any of these elements are missing, you’ve got zero deterrence. Again, if any of these elements are missing, you’ve got zero deterrence.

By capability, I mean all elements of national power - including the military, but not exclusively the military.


Doesn’t the Belt and Road limit their ability to show actual aggression towards Taiwan? Diplomatically and financially, shooting people would be an iffy proposition. I wonder how many governments who’d signed up for support would be more than happy to pull the plug on something they’d done in haste.

Also, with all the pouting and crying that is done in the name of “unity”, where is Taiwan’s inclusion in the map shown in press releases regarding the B&R?


That’s because they’re giving up on HK. Just saying.

In addition to the above there is a serious effort to change the energy mix to be more environmentally friendly, judicial reform, etc. So, a lot of things happening and things do seem to be getting better.

Questionable. :2cents:


Who cares if the USA “wins” once the nukes start flying. Because that’s what happens when you corner a nuclear capable country . You think they won’t crack them out if they are losing? And Russia won’t sit idly by to let the USA within their backyard.

The USA won’t risk lives against a country like China or Russia, only small ones that they think they can beat like Iraq and Iran.
I’m strongly against breaking status quo.


(Sigh.) I suspect both sides would avoid the use of nukes.


Yes, both sides have too much to lose. This is going to be Cold War 2.0.


What the hell is the foreign affairs department? You mean State?


Yes I like to use them interchangeably to emphasize the political significance, in the context of Taiwan.


Will China invade Taiwan in the near future? @discobot fortune


:crystal_ball: Ask again later


If China ever invades Taiwan, will they bring over girls and food supplies from 四川? @discobot fortune


:crystal_ball: Signs point to yes


Wohoooo! I, for one, welcome our new communist overlords :bowing:


The 1949 invasion didn’t do much for human rights, but it did wonders for the culinary scene.