Is Taiwan Willing to Pay the Price to Stay Independent?

Mawvellous,Here is a possible scenario for reunification.Over years,the PRC "encourages"Taiwan to gradually create ever closer cross strait ties by rewarding it when it does so and punishing it when it doesn’t.This increasing closeness builds mainland expectations for final unification.(There is precedent in the incrementally developing relationships of EU member states or Australia and New Zealand.Trading bits of sovereignty for economic and other benefits is nothing new.)At some point the mainland proposes unification.Taiwan may be asked to do no more than make a public declaration of its new status.Government and military institutions may be allowed to remain unchanged except for some name changes (ROC into Taiwan Autonomous Region).Certainly a lot of carrots and sticks, both public and private,will be involved.On the Taiwan side,many participants will have a variety of rationalizations for their participation.(“I did it for the welfare of my family”.“It was for the good of the country in the long run”.“I wanted to avoid bloodshed”.“There was no other choice.It was inevitable”.“The actual changes are minor”)

Exactly. Spot on.

I would also like to express agreement with DSN’s post especially the point about the strong support for reunification among PRC citizens,even those who have lived abroad.I have had more than one conversation with mainlanders in which they actually expected the Taiwanese to welcome PRC rule.Their thinking was that Taiwan politicians are a corrupt, quarrelsome lot and the people would be glad to replace them with a competent,reliable CCP regime.Of course,this totally diverges from reality but this kind of thinking could lead to dangerous miscalculations.It seems widely accepted that the Bush administration ignored a lot of reality in planning the Iraq War.How much easier would it be for ideology and wishful thinking to trump reality in a country lacking America’s democratic traditions?

The average Taiweanes is not like yourself… living in the USA and then deciding from afar what is good or not for Taiwan.

Of course if a war breaks out I’m sure you won’t be rushing back here. :roflmao: :roflmao:

:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

I think this missile thing misses the point. It seems like the China will attack if Taiwan declares independence rather than staying de facto independent. If China looks like it is about to attack Taiwan, the US sends aircraft carriers to wait off coast. However there’s lots of evidence that Taiwan can’t just declare independence, get attacked and expect the US to fight a war with China, i.e. the US have essentially told the Chen Shui Bian that if he declared independence he was on his own in the resulting war.

Now you have the DPP planning to sidle toward independence in the face of increasingly crazed threats from China, or you have the KMT who want to keep the status quo by weasel words, i.e. they will do nothing that implies that Taiwan is either independent or unified with China. It seems to me that the safest thing to do is to keep the status quo in the hope that China liberalizes. In the mean time, they can work towards getting China to accept the status quo as the path of least resistance.

Plus as a bonus in this case the US will defend Taiwan in this case if China threatens it.

I’d say wait the PRC bastards out rather than picking a fight which the Taiwan could lose and where the US is extremely unlikely to back it 100%.

One of my reasons for starting this thread was my concern about the weak grasp of international realities the DPP showed in its foreign policy, a policy seemingly based on the idea that the island’s moral right to independence must be recognized by the world.Let me be clear.I think Taiwan is morally entitled to independence but it was (and is) painfully obvious that the international community has made up its mind on this question,primarily for reasons of economics and realpolitik.The real question for the DPP is what price are they willing to pay to maintain Taiwan’s defacto independence?If someday an ultimatum comes,are the only alternatives a hopeless war or surrender?The capacity to cause serious damage in a number of Chinese cities through long range missiles could radically change the cost-benefit calculus of PRC leaders considering an attack.Yes,it involves costs and dangers but it is reality based.As long as there is no answer to the growing PRC military threat ,any talk of independence rings hollow.I am not an unquestioning fan of the KMT approach.Buying time through incremental concessions is a realistic option but seems to lead to the unification scenario I outlined above unless China becomes democratic.

Hold on. Who exactly do you think gets to decide which weapons Taiwan can and cannot have. The Taiwanese? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

Sandman said: [quote]Hold on. Who exactly do you think gets to decide which weapons Taiwan can and cannot have. The Taiwanese? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:[/quote]
You mock your own ignorance sir. The next time you come down to Chiayi County I’ll show you a secret weapons development site near my place; it’s known in certain circles as “Area 88.”

[quote=“DSN”] Kidding, right? Ever spoken to anyone in China? They are vehemently in favour of unification at, it seems, any cost. Even in the West, most people who have come from China are very strongly in favour of this unification, even after enjoying the freedoms of the democracies in which they now reside (eg Europe, New Zealand etc). It is certainly not just rhetoric from the CHNese politicians.
[/quote]

Yes I have…they normally say ‘taiwan shi women zhongguo de’ or something along those lines. This is the official nationalistic rhetoric of the CCP leadership, but it doesn’t mean that they are actually pursuing reunification. What Chinese people say, and what they do, are often two very different things- I think we all know that from living in Taiwan!

Right, the KMT’s pretence to recapture the Mainland lost any credibility after the US and the PRC established diplomatic relations, by the time the Cold War ended it was looking even more absurd. So it had to adapt, however maintaining the ROC should not be so hard…in fact the PRC has already tacitly acknowledged this through the ‘yi ge zhongguo, gezi biaoshu’ (one China, each side has its own interpretation) formulation. If the PRC was really aiming for reunification, why has it not launched a diplomatic offensive against the ROC? Why has it not bothered to capitalise on the very shaky ROC-Paraguay ties?

[quote=“DSN”]No disputing that, but what are their options, and how many under-60’s who vote green are willing to die for that independence?
Again, quite right; the US does not want a “fracas”. Taiwan is an ally, China is not, but is the US able and willing to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a military emergency? I would say no on both counts. The ability will likely rise with a Democrat win in November, but the willingness will fall. The Democrats are likely to speed up a US withdrawal from Iraq & Afghanistan if possible, but I don’t see Obama having the foreign policy experience to bluff or force China out of a conflict. [/quote]

Not sure who would die for independence…but that’s not really the point. Mass street protests would also prove to be a huge embarrassment. Unless the PRC has something tangible to gain, why would it bother?

There is absolutely no evidence that any side wants a conflict. I’m not sure if the US would come to Taiwan’s aid, but the question is entirely hypothetical.

Taiwanese investors in China have pushed for loosening of restrictions, which is happening now. Any attempt at reunification could risk a war, or social unrest on either side of the strait, which of course they desire to avoid.

What would happen if any attempt at reunification went wrong? There is risk everywhere, and few benefits.

Absolutely unacceptable to both green and blue Taiwanese. Will not happen, as this is not the PRC’s aim (even official policy has moved away from this) and would be strongly resisted by Taiwan.
The HK example is different in a number of important respects: HK did not have a democratic polity before reunification; HK identity is very weak and hence there is no serious independence movement; HK was a British colony, it did not have an independent military or an independent foreign policy. For HK ‘one country, two systems’ was seen as appropriate, no one thinks this would be the case for Taiwan.

[quote=“DSN”] What are the “other” problems that this will add to? There are two things staying China’s hand, as far as I can tell. By far the most important is its desperate desire to be seen as a legitimate force to be reckoned with, that can sit at the big boy’s table. It is achieving this economically, which is, unfortunately, enough. Political freedom and respect for international law do not need to follow, as the West has made abundantly clear by, for example, rewarding China’s “coming of age” with an olympics. While the western press may pay lip service to human rights and democracy, the wimpish response of the IOC et al is an indication of the real level of concern when money is involved. Sorry to say, for all the Bush-haters out there, that his administration has been one of the most outspoken in its support for freedoms in China. Admittedly, this has been only rhetoric, but is better than the almost universal silence from Europe. But I digress.

The second thing staying China’s hand is the growing civil unrest in its western hinterlands. The “Go West” campaign is an attempt to deal with this, but it is a very real worry that internal strife will wrack the country if income / quality of life inequalities widen too much further. One almost gets the impression that some in the West “hope” for this, as the only way to hold China back from “world domination”. They have been predicting this strife for years, but one sees no reason to believe that such unrest will be quelled with any less vigour than in Tibet or Xinjiang.[/quote]

In the first paragraph you ask what ‘problems’ China has, in the second paragraph you start to list them…there are many more. But to turn the question around, what benefits does reunification have for China (asides from nationalist propaganda that can be created in other ways)? Try to think from Beijing’s perspective about possible gains and risks.

(Bush is a hypocrite, and I believe the EU as well as a number of EU governments have offered criticism)

[quote=“DSN”]China is a rising power that wants to take what it sees as its rightful place in the world (see above). Part of taking its place is to assert itself as the regional super-power, a position currently held by Japan (marginally). China is not interested in maintaining the status quo in the region. Its desire is to be an economic, military powerhouse. It cannot reach that spot without upsetting a few on the way.

The positive of this for TWN is that it will push Japan in particular, and possibly South Korea to a lesser extent, closer to TWN. I would almost venture to say that Japan is a more likely ally for TWN in the event of (unlikely) armed conflict than the US. Japan is feeling very threatened, and a Japan-TWN alliance may be sufficient to make China think again (for the next five years at least). Add a healthy dose of resurgent Japanese nationalism and “voila”, instant ally.[/quote]

Japan may remain the region’s economic superpower, militarily the Asia-Pacific is dominated by the US-Japan bilateral alliance. In your very hypothetical example, Japan would be in no position to support Taiwan without US agreement and support.

[quote=“DSN”]So, what will unification look like, then? It will likely begin as an economic cooperation of some sort (this is almost the case anyway, given the huge investments by TWN in China). If TWN is not eager to comply, a reminder of the $billions they have invested in China and the need to sfeguard this will be all that will be required. This will be followed by the SAR-style oversight suggested above. How many years it will take to get there from where we are today, though, is anyone’s guess.
Our one hope is that the democratic changes required in China to stop this happening, or even to make such a move a positive choice (imagine that!) do begin to take hold. Sadly, that is something I would not put money on.[/quote]

I guess you can make up any number of unlikely scenarios, but there is no reason for this to happen. I have not heard any serious commentator on the Cross-Straits issue suggest a scenario like this. (did you copy it from a DPP blog?)

An interesting proposition. However I do not imagine the ROC simply deciding to dissolve itself.
(1) There would be strong opposition, not only from Taiwan independence supporters but also from those in the KMT who are still welded to the ROC, only a tiny minority of ROC citizens want to reunite with the PRC. This might be just about the only thing that could unite the blues and greens.
(2) The PRC would have nothing to gain from such an arrangement. Sure, they might be able to claim the credit for unifying China but the reaction of the Taiwanese could prove disastrous in propaganda terms. In your scenario (assuming Taiwan maintains its military and institutions), they would be blunted in terms of possible responses.
(3) Yes, the Cross-Straits relationship may become closer (especially in economic terms), but this doesn’t mean the ROC will willingly surrender its sovereignty, just as the EU remains a group of sovereign nation states.

If an ultimatum comes they’ll have to fight, but I don’t think a war with China is hopeless. Taiwan has decent hardware and people here are well motivated. China has a load of crap hardware and people are much less motivated. The Chinese probably don’t have the ability to send an invasion force across the sea even if they are just fighting Taiwan. And all the signs are that the US would send aircraft carriers here too.

The China has Scud like missiles but Taiwan has PAC3 patriots and a domestic missile defense system based on PAC3. From what I’ve read the Chinese could do quite a lot of damage but not enough to force a capitulation. But with a few more defensive missiles they could probably survive pretty much unscathed - PAC3s worked 100% against Iraqi missiles when the US invaded. The ones the Chinese have are very close to those.

I dunno. The PRC leadership don’t give a shit about their citizens and I find it hard to imagine Taiwan using missiles to level cities in the way that Russia or China would, not least because they grew up in an environment where a hostile media tends to frown on things like that.

I think they should build domestic missile defense systems and domestic anti ship cruise missiles. Shitloads of them. And at the same time buy similar sorts of weapons from the US, or better sign agreements to make them under license like they did with their missile defense system.

Actually it seems like that is what they are doing

dailytimes.com.pk/default.as … 2008_pg4_7

[quote]TAIPEI: Taiwan plans to mass-produce ship-to-ship missiles to boost its naval defences against China, the United Evening News reported Friday.

The defence ministry has set aside more than US 71.75 million to manufacture the locally-designed Supersonic Hsiung-feng 3, the United Evening News said. The defence ministry declined to comment on the report. Analysts say the Hsiung-feng 3 can be fitted with a variety of guidance systems and can function as a ship-to-ship, land-attack or anti-radar missile. With a range of at least 130 kilometres, the missile has been designed to counter China’s Russia-made equivalent, analysts say. Taiwan showcased the Hsiung-feng 3 in a rare military parade last year seen as a reminder to China that the island has the weapons to defend itself. afp[/quote]

This is the Patriot derivative

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_Bow_III#Sky_Bow_III

There’s even a hint that Taiwan has some ballistic missiles with 1000km range though I’m not sure what they would use them for.

We can use them to strike Japan for encroaching on ROC territory… :slight_smile:

With Aso soon to be at the helm :bravo: :bravo: , I don’t think Taiwan would dare :laughing:

KingZog,The Chinese military is improving at a rate that has the US seriously concerned.Have you done an internet search on what military analysts say about Taiwan’s prospects in a war with the mainland?I agree that the CCP does not care much about individual citizens but it does care about the economy.Maintaining high growth is the top priority.This is why a threat to major cities would give the politburo pause even though it would be willing to accept very high military casualties.I also agree that the idea of launching a mass of missiles at mainland cities goes against the moral grain of most Taiwanese.But the real value of such a missile force would lie in its deterrent value.It basically says to the PRC,“Even if you win,it will be a pyrrhic victory.There will be far more horror than glory”.It would be a final line of defense Taiwan could turn to if it were abandoned by the US.(I hope America will always stand by the ROC but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it).The only persuasive arguement I have heard against the missile option is the potential for a negative reaction from the US.This could be dealt with by a variation of Japan’s situation with nuclear weapons.That country professes absolutely no desire for nuclear weapons BUT many experts believe the country’s level of technology would allow it to produce such weapons in a matter of months.Taiwan could ensure that everything is in place for a rapid production and deployment of the missiles.Hopefully they would never be built but even the potential would affect PRC military calculations.

prevailing winds would make taiwan’s (or even Japan’s) use of nukes against China a bit tricky. a bit like pissing upwind, but worse for one’s health.

China would probably not want to use nukes on Taiwan: there’d be little left to stick a flag onto, though that probably wouldn’t worry them too much: after all, think of all the FACE they would have gained! (except that Sun Moon Lake and all those lovely highrise horrorshows would be contaminated.)

against Japan, there’d be absolutely no compunction, despite (or maybe even because of) Aso as president. it would be a shame that japan would then be the only nation to have been attacked twice, in separate centuries, with nuclear weapons. i don’t think the US would take that one lying down either. that famous ‘ride em cowboy’ pick from Dr. Strangelove seems relevant here. " Away with excess enemy, now that we have the neutron bomb".

Last time I checked it seems like the US can deter the war from starting

militaryphotos.net/forums/sh … hp?t=15954

So long as Taiwan doesn’t declare independence of course, that would pretty much force China to play the rather weak hand it has. But even then it’s not clear that the Chinese would win. From point of view of the Politburo in China, losing a war with Taiwan is very bad indeed.

I.e. rather than being able to steal a load of money and retire with their kids safely packed off to the US, they get killed by an angry mob.

By the way, just imagine how the scenarios in the article would play out if Taiwan started to use weapons that killed large numbers of Chinese civillians. The Chinese will make sure that shit ends up on CNN and probably hire some people to start an anti war movement in the US and Taiwan too. Then once the US pulls out they can attack Taiwan with impunity.

Mawvellous,I agree the various differences from HK would make Taiwan more challenging place for Beijing to govern but consider this scenario:Taiwan is invaded and occupied.The PLA announces plans for a Taiwan SAR “as soon as circumstances permit”,in other words, as soon as the demonstrations and other “splitist” activities are brought under control.It is not easy to participate in protests against a government not limited by principles of law and human rights.Let’s say your friend participated in an anti-occupation demonstration.He was arrested and “killed trying to escape” but at the funeral you get a glance at his body.Even to your untrained eye,the marks of torture are obvious.Then government wrath descends on his family. They are hauled in for “questioning”.They lose their jobs,their bank accounts are frozen .Friends want to help but are quietly “warned” that doing so invites the same treatment for their families.How many such examples would be needed before the vast majority of Taiwanese decided to “cooperate”.Then it would be all sweetness and light although the new SAR would inspire comparisons with Vichy France for some time to come.Yes,there would be foreign criticism,perhaps even sanctions but not for long.Exiles would try to keep the issue alive abroad but they would soon learn why Tibet’s government in exile gets little more than kind words from politicians and contributions from celebrities.The Taiwanese diaspora is of course much more sophisticated in many ways but would lack the appeal of an exotic culture and the Dalai Lama’s charisma.By the way,if you think the CCP is no longer capable of such ruthlessness,I can only suggest you contact some human rights groups monitoring the mainland.Give special attention to the punishments meted out to those accused of “splitist” activity.The Party is indeed much more tolerant of many things but when it comes to this sin the CCP goes back to tried and true methods.

Urodacus,If Taiwan were to get nuclear weapons and an effective delivery system a PRC invasion would be essentially unthinkable.Even the most rabid Chinese nationalist would be unwilling to risk an atomic holocaust.However, the possession of such weapons might make Taiwan an international pariah.There is ,however, a case to be made for getting as close as possible to a capability like Japan’s ie. the ability to produce such weapons in a matter of months if needed.

Just so we’re clear – this IS purely a joke thread, right? China “deciding,” Taiwan “deciding”… which planet are you guys living on? :roflmao:
The US decides. China and Taiwan kowtow and suck it up. Its that simple, folks, despite all the face-saving bluster on both sides.
If Washington decides China can have Taiwan, it’ll have it. It’s that simple. If Washington decides otherwise, then Taiwan stays free. That’s IT.