Nope, I’m certainly not certain of what the future holds, but I can look at the pieces and make some educated guesses. Rising demand on one side (due to burdgeoning populations and economic development) along with a costlier supply base on the other. Doesn’t take too much to figure out that when demand exceeds supply prices can accelerate upwards quickly, and that the supply chain becomes a nice speculative target and even more susceptible to any ‘fears’ that are out there. I think most of that growth (China specifically) is baked into the current price, it may take a big spurt in India to put another big spike into oil prices.
I have never mentioned exponential price increases, that was Finley. Don’t get us confused.
I predict oil will float between 100-200 USD/barrel in todays money for the foreseeable future…10 years out…because it simply CANNOT go above a certain point without demand destruction along with the clear cost advantage other energy sources would have. Peak oil is not about running out of oil, few are dumb enough to believe in that… There will always be oil in the ground, the question is only whether is there is an economic incentive to extract it or not (and in the future perhaps an environmental incentive).
I’ve missed the boat a bit in not investing more in Tesla, there are very few pure play electric vehicles or electric component supplier that I can think of that I could invest in. I had previously thought about putting money in A321 batteries…lucky I didn’t.
I don’t like to invest money in a company that doesn’t have a certain amount of proven success under it’s belt, the best bets are those that have launched something commercial and working through the kinks and not much loved or noticed by the analysts and the Goldmans yet. I don’t know the other ways I could play this. I don’t know much about investing in oil companies either nor am I very interested in that.