Isn't now an ideal time for China to attack Taiwan?

If China was to take over Taiwan and America did nothing, there would be strategic repercussions which would lead to long term economic repercussions. One of the worries of the Americans is that within 50 years China will be economically stronger than the US. If on top of this, China has nabbed Taiwan (giving China control of the South china Sea)without a response from the US the military, political and yes economic repercussions will be severe. You think the Americans invaded Iraq for idealistic reasons? No they went to war for business reasons (WMDs were only a secondary and possibly false reason giving Bush the benefit of the doubt). Business, military and political leaders will make the necessary calculations and I for one am willing to bet that the US will go to war with China if it sees it necessary.

Hainan-Do you mean Hainan Island now part of the PRC? I’m open to correction on this but I understood Chinag Kai Shek first thought of retreating there instead of Taiwan. However, it was pointed out to him (and why he didn’t know this I have no idea) that Hainan is much more difficult to defend than Taiwan. Thus Taiwan it was and Hainan was left to its fate (you don’t throw limited military resources at a hopeless cause). All resources had to be concentrated on the survival of Taiwan. Any historians out there? I bet there’s so much more to the story of how Taiwan survived than is commonly known.

What are you talking about? Hainan fell in 1950. The last time the PRC tried to take Jinmen/Matsu was in 1958. And they had their asses handed to them.

Maybe you need a new history book. The PRC shelled Jinmen in 1958 (and later, for that matter), but never attempted a serious amphibious attack. In 1949, in contrast, the PLA tried to invade Kinmen, but was forced back into the sea with substantial losses. The successful invasion of Hainan in 1950 followed the previous setback.

China will be stronger and more influential economically than the United States in 50 years, regardless of Taiwan’s political status.

US allies in east Asia have the option of being allies with both, or being the pawn in this centuries Cold War. All businessmen are hoping the answer, for all involved, would be a strategic partnership on both sides that leads to shared prosperity and interests.[/quote]

Even if China’s goal is near-term invasion (and I doubt it is), I’d say it’s not quite ripe yet. Within a generation most of the old guard pro-Taiwan Senators will be out of Congress, replaced by younger ones who are either fascinated with China or don’t really care. Second, China still has most of thier oil going through the Malacca Straits, which the U.S. Navy practiacally owns. Wait a while and they can probably get it through Kazakstan via pipeline.

Bullshit. The PRC announced it was going to “liberate taiwan” and it was serious enough that the US moved the 7th Fleet to the Taiwan Straits and considered nuking China. It was ended because Taiwan had a good Air Force using brand new American-made Sidewinders and was able to establish complete air superiority and a kill ratio in excess of 8-1. Alot of PLAAF pilots went home in bodybags.

Dream on. China will have collapsed and reverted to warlordism long before then, with or without Taiwan.

Maybe you should stop relying on CCP approved history textbooks. For example, the Koguryo empire actually existed, and that was not a part of China either.

I wouldn’t say ALL businessmen, because there are always exceptions. This is why in lawschool people are taught to generalize but never say absolutes. So here’s where you are wrong:

In the 1990’s it seems there were a lot of businessmen in America whom argued that investing in China would eventually lead to China’s government switching to democracy. Unfortunately many now say that it seems our gamble was wrong. Foreign investment and positive economic growth seems not to have the sweeping impacts towards democracy that we envisioned in the 1980’s.

On the other hand, one thing is consistent, China’s “Peaceful Rise” was bloodied with battles with Russia, Vietnam, India, Tibet, Taiwan, and so forth in the last 50 years, making it one of the most aggressive nations in modern history. China also has the most major land disputes in the world. You can’t even draw a detailed map of China without at least 5 grey areas, otherwise it would become a political and not a geographical map.

And notice most of China’s closest allies are totalitarian nations that have been militarily aggressive or known to be a bit unstable.

In addition China is known as the worlds number 1 dual-use nuclear technology proliferator. When Libya handed over its nuclear program to the UN, inspectors were shocked to find manuals written in Chinese (simplified duh).

So how you could argue that China is supposedly this patient nation especially considering they are stacking troops in the border in India and building roads into Bhutan?

Oh right, a card carrying CCP member. Gosh, sorry for wasting my breath.

Shrimpcrackers said

True, but maybe it needs more time. If China had gone democratic in a flash the country could have fallen to bits. The Chinese saw what happened to Russia and were determined they were going to keep China in one peice (not an easy job at the best of times) which is one reason for the Tiananmen Square massacre (I’m not justifying it, just giving a reason for it) So no, they are not going to set up democracy anytime soon. And maybe not planning to ever-but then neither did the Soviet Union until Gorbachov came along. But let’s not forget Taiwan didn’t become a democracy for a long time either even after economic success (nor did the US, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Portugal, Japan, Korea and I’m sure several other countries). Democracy and freedom usually have to be fought for in a long , slow and painful process.

However, Taiwan did start democratizing in the 1960s(?) with elections for village and township chiefs. It may not seem significant that China did the same thing a couple of years back but a journey of a thousand miles…
As time went on things gradually got freer in Taiwan until the country (sorry CCT but that’s what it, is de facto) was ready for democracy (aided by the sacrifiices and dedication of the DPP which I feel should not be forgotten so quickly no matter any flaws they may have). However, our freedom-loving benefactors in the KMT felt the people of Taiwan would not be ready for such unChinese ideas as democracy for at least another…100, 1000, 10,000 years maybe and asked for America to understand their culture. “Sorry,” said the Americans, "we are long-nosed barbarians and we don’t undersatnd KMT culture. Democracy now, or investments are going to be pulled out, Capisce? "

I don’t know if the KMT understood Italian but they sure as hell understood the bottom line and brought in democracy without of course, letting on that the Americans had twisted their arms or other parts of their anatomy.

China of course is another country (de facto, stop twitching) and it may not happen the same way. But consider this, a lot of American, Japanese, European and Taiwanese investment is going into China. In 50 years China may well be the richest and most powerful nation on Earth ( and I for one wish the Chinese people well and hope they do well in the future) but it will be interdependent with other countries and it may be forced to go democratic whether it likes it or not. This is not bullying China by the way, it’s pressurizing the Chinese government to give its people the rights they should have had thousands of years ago (and if they had, maybe China would be influencing the world instead of the US). The West cannot allow a large, rich, well armed country to dominate the world and wipe out the gains in human rights. China has to go democratic and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese leadership hasn’t figured that out already. But if they are going to go democratic, they’re going to do it slowly. This, of course, does not mean they are freedom loving democrats at heart- any more than the KMT is.

I can’t even tell what exactly you’re calling “bullshit” on. I’m reasonably sure you don’t know, either.

Bullshit… what? Bullshit that the PRC never attempted a serious amphibious attack in 1958? Didn’t you just reinforce my point with a poor attempt to cover your own ass: “the PRC announced…” I guess maybe you’re right. The PRC attempted an amphibious attack via propaganda posters in 1958. :laughing:

[quote]Dream on. China will have collapsed and reverted to warlordism long before then, with or without Taiwan.[/quote]Not that I question your informed analytical skills… but maybe you could tell us a little bit about your predictive powers:

What was your prediction for “China 2006”, 10 years back? Did you figure China would be the world’s 4th largest economy? Did you predict that the central Beijing government would be more popular than any other central government in recent history? And that 70% of Hong Kong’ers would view the Chinese premier and president positively?

My parents had predicted that human rights and civil liberties would not improve without change in the government (note I didn’t say a change OF government). They were absolutely right.

Continuing, China’s current growth, percentage-wise is actually less than when Taiwan was in its growth spurt from a developing nation as well.

You’re using 1/5th of the world to compare, an area and population larger than the entirety of Europe or of the United States. Of course any slight change looks significant on paper.

But looking at South Korea’s dramatic rise, one wonders why China could not parallel itself with South Korea given that just 25 years ago South Korea was pretty much rice paddies.

If 10 trillion aliens came down on this planet, with a GDP Per Capita PPP of $0.01 USD, it would be the largest economy too. Chinese people barely make more than Mexicans and last year I checked on PPP they didn’t.

Wrong, the Central Beijing Government wasn’t as popular as the Iraqi one under Saddams reign. I believe Saddam won an election with around 99% support. Anyway the legitimacy of CCP/Xinhua/People’s Daily surveys (as well as Saddams supposed election) are suspect at best.

Article or evidence please. Keep in mind about half a million protest every year over Basic law and the related matters.

TaiwanLight: That was a very eloquent response. However as we’ve seen human rights make a turn for even worse I think that many people feel the bid for democracy has failed. China may never progress on the road to democracy, because the world will not wait for it, and again, its human rights and civil liberties have barely improved. In fact China has done the opposite, companies like Cisco, Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft have been pressured to help China monitor its citizens like it could never have done before. Internet cafe managers are told to monitor its users, and to kick out those that visit forbidden sites too often. In addition users must register themselves within 30 days after visiting a netcafe or face stiff penalties or possibly jail-time. On behalf of China, Cisco now offers technology to track down people and their online behavior as well as possible ‘opinions’. 1984 anyone?

Shrimp crackers. Fai enough point about human rights having gone downhill. I’ll just say one thing. Steve Biko was murdered by the apartheid government of south Africa. Chen Shui Bien’s wife was run over by a truck and nearly killed.(Pure accident of course) South Africa and Taiwan are having their problems but they are free and democratic countries. Sometimes it’s darkest just before the dawn. Sometimes vile governemnts get worse, not because they are strong, but because they are desperate. (this migth also be relevant to Islam) It’s not finished yet.

Although I’m not sure if Chen Shuibian’s wife was run over accidentally (the truck did back over her and run her over a few times).

But you know, same thing with Russia and Germany. I really really hope you are right. But those outcomes also took outside intervention or strong characters. China is very smart in ensuring that any prominent individuals against the government are quickly handled. With little or no opposition, a rise in nationalism/fascism, religious persecution, and most of the world kow-towing to China, we might just get a repeat of Nazi Germany. Who knows how many more thousands, if not millions more will die before the CCP are satisfied?

ShrimpCrackers,

Does this really make sense in your own mind? Just curious.

Is it really easier to grow a nation that (as you point out) has an area and population larger than the entirety of Europe and the United States? Are you really sure you want to categorize the growth of the Chinese economy as “slight”? :astonished: And if even a “slight” change in the Chinese economy can have such a significant impact on world affairs, what’s your prediction for the future of China when these changes are no longer “slight”?

When I was growing up, just 20 years ago, I grew up in an educated family (3 professors out of my 4 grandparents) in Nanjing: one of the richer urban areas of China, the former capital of the Republic of China. I shared a 90 year old house with 5 families, and jumped over an open sewer pit on the way to school. We didn’t even have toilet paper; we used scrunched up newspapers/homework (that was a private pleasure). We used well water as our only form of “refrigeration”. I rarely had access to milk, which was tightly rationed. Meat was a luxury. We crowded around a 13" black-white TV to watch a single TV channel for the few hours a night it was available. During the winter months, the only way to bathe was in a great big wooden tub covered with plastic tenting, filled with water boiled on the stove.

My family’s combined monthly income was approximately $15, USD. My father owned exactly one pair of pants. The greatest financial asset any family owned was the bicycle. I still distinctly remember my first taste of orange juice (what a luxury!), at the hotel for foreigners where my mother was fortunate to moonlight on the piano. I remember my first taste of coke, too… I think I promptly downed 2 cans and got darn sick off the carbonation.

You really don’t need to lecture me about the economic and social changes in China and the “rice paddies” of South Korea. You really don’t have the knowledge or background to say anything about what China’s economic growth means to the Chinese people. The statistics are there for the academics to marvel over, and those of us who’ve lived and watched these changes first-hand understand how amazing this transformation has been.

China’s still a third-world, developing nation. There’s plenty to be humble for. If China is to achieve even more, then the Chinese need to work even harder + smarter. The realists amongst us recognize that the economic world order as it currently stands isn’t exactly well-suited to poverty elimination… one look at India, Brazil, Southeast Asia, Africa confirms that. China’s still stuck on the bottom of the value chain, with a large poorly trained workforce, financial burdens, and poor economic, legal, political infrastructure.

But if my generation can even come remotely close to matching the achievements of the previous generation, then exciting times await China. Don’t get too anxious waiting for the collapse of the Chinese nation, ShimpCracker. We’re out to disappoint you, in a big way.

You mean you don’t aspire to my hopes that China, during my lifetime, will become a strong and mighty democracy (meaning MULTIPARTY) along with an honorable peaceful reputation, excellent civil liberties, and a strong economy to boot?

What?!?! You want to match my dissapointment for Mexico?

Have you gone insane!? What benefit does Taiwan get if China collapses unduly? 1.3 billion refugees is as annihilistic as 800 missiles and a full force invasion. Many more people will die without a peaceful transition due to your party.

Unlike others, I REMEMBER THAT WE ARE HUMANS, and I wish no harm comes to anyone, which also means that I think long-term and am willing to fight for the long term good instead of willingly subjecting myself to totalitarian governments most famous for killing over 40 million of their own due to mismanagement and idiocy.

Large populations actually have an advantage for growth because lets say (using the 10 Trillion Aliens that make 0.01USD a year)… if it was increased to 0.02, then it would be a 50% increase in GDP. Considering that China’s current government is dealing with farmers like they were useless trash is a major problem and benefits no one.

In contrast, how will a nation like Vanuatu ever benefit from having a small population and small land area?

In fact your huge population is what is benefiting you right now. The abundance of cheap labor and land is exactly why factories are opening up in China rather than other, poorer places in the world.

Anyway there are many factors in this, and thank the Japanese for paying 25% of your infrastructure from 1992-1998. And thank some of the Taiwanese businessmen going into rural villages in China, bringing computers, hotels, etc, hoping that maybe, just maybe, we could improve the lives of everyone in China, not just yourself or the coastal areas.

I’m sure you think the CCP is fantastic, however imagine a multiparty democracy where everyone’s rights were respected, and everyone had much higher incentives to outdo and advance themselves. A transparent and open society is much more important to longterm growth.

Speaking of which, I grew up pretty privaleged, most of my extended family has PHDs, over 100, and the rest are mostly successful entrepreneurs. However just because we grew up in different situations doesn’t mean that you have any more say in this matter or have any right over others. You should not be content that chances are, the standard of living in China, for your children, will not equal those in America or elsewhere in the developed world. That is a major offense. That must be changed. For the sake of your future generations you better work hard. Besides, if you supercede Taiwan in every way, then I doubt many in Taiwan would mind unification. So if you’re as good as you say then get crackin and become rich like Bill Gates and start some community service and economic reform. I sure as hell do not want to be dissapointed. 23 million Taiwanese people are depending on you!

cctang,

Shrimp is hoping that you will be yearning for American democracy soon.

That you will be discontent with your accomplishment of the past 20 years, longing for days for economic poverty, in exchange for the spiritual fulfillment of American democracy.

That in your rapture you will forget about Taiwan as he helps them declare independence.

This mode of thinking is just a product of American propaganda and poor education system pertaining to Asia.

Does your post suggest a reading disability (because that is not what I wrote) or are you suggesting that CCTang is a fool?

I’ve said before that if China supercedes Taiwan in most ways like democracy, economics, and civil liberties then yeah, unification would be great. Why not? What’s there to lose?

On the other hand, how many people clamor to America for better lives? Over 50,000 illegal Chinese immigrants in NYC alone! You yourself claim to live in NYC. Don’t be a hypocrite.

So if CCTang genuinely wants a good future for China, and wants Taiwan to be willing to unify, and genuinely values lives, then the best thing he can do is become successful, make a name for himself in the world community, so when he speaks, people will listen. Otherwise he’s just a nobody couch-pundit like most of us here. He better do something about it than just all talk.

I don’t understand the source of your “disappointment in Mexico”. Doesn’t Mexico have legitimate, multi-party democracy? Doesn’t the Mexican constitution guarantee civil rights, with no political party repressing political dissent the way the CCP does?

You need to work on your understanding of economics, as a whole. It’s not a trivial task for 10 trillion aliens to double their income from 0.01 to 0.02 cents. Growth always comes as a percentage of capital invested, not as some absolute measure. It’s far, far easier for Donald Trump to make another penny than it is for a sub-saharan wheat farmer to make another penny.

Ask yourself, if ‘large poor population = great growth potential’, then why would there be poverty anywhere? Why is India impoverished? India, a very diverse multi-party democracy (fanatical about protecting civil rights) for more than 5 decades, no less? India, which was left out of the worst of WW2, and was left with the basic infrastructure of the British empire?

By the way, you really shouldn’t assume anything about my standard of living or income levels. I thought it was already pretty obvious, but I work (at least half of the year) in the United States. The standard of living of my immediate family who work full-time in China are pretty darn good, I might add. There’s nothing they lack for from a consumer point of view.

I’ll take your call to “make a name for myself” to heart :wink:… it’s not like I’m not trying! But in my more realistic moments, I’ll settle for making more money, taking care of my family, and doing my own small part to make the world, and my nation, a better place. I’m a big believer in the supreme power of capital (just like any good Marxist and free market capitalist), and my greatest contribution is to make sure my human and financial capital are efficiently and properly invested in Chinese industry. I donate to charities working in China on a regular basis (and always willing to discuss those with anyone interested in participating).

I understand exactly what I want for China. Do you?

Shrimp,

Even if the PRC surpasses the ROC on all those points you mentioned, why should ROC automatically unify with the PRC?

If that’s the case then Richard’s plan should be intuitive to the people of Taiwan, because surely the USA surpasses the ROC on all those benchmarks you mentioned.

I think you missed the TI points about “dignity and respect.” Taiwanese are not more willing to unify with the PRC due to the percieved lack of dignity from the mainland, than they would be willing to unify with the USA for the exact same reasons.

There is a lot to be said from the Status Quo position in terms of address the unification issue with either USA or PRC.

I posted this in a thread just a few days back:

forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?t=47054

See the link in that thread for Hong Kong University’s POP project, in particular.

Shrimp Crackers said Although I’m not sure if Chen Shuibian’s wife was run over accidentally (the truck did back over her and run her over a few times). "

The old problem Shrimp how does one indicate irony in writing? I was being sarcastic. I don’t think it was an accident especially after what you’ve just told me.

As regards China’s future well, we have to hope for the best, don’t we? I would hope that the leadership and for that matter intellectuals, the army, the new businesspeople and hopefully the man on the Beijing omnibus can see that we can’t afford the “Great Game” that the Brits enjoyed(?) in the nineteenth century. Any country that tries to build up another empire using military means given the weapons we have now is likely to destroy the world. The Chinese are smart people and even if they weren’t, it’s a no-brainer. Hell even the Moslems ( the truly fanatical ones I’m talking about) understand this. They’re trying to take over the world using their women as baby machines. (of course they’re trying to get nukes too but the idea is to scare the West into submission not to destroy it)
So the Chinese want greatness? Fine, okay, if you think it’ll make you happy. But if you define it by the way they did it in the past, we are doomed, all of us.

So they are treating the farmers badly? Well, that’s not fair or just by any means but I have told you the achilles heel of China, the 200 million unemployed, mostly rural folks desperately travelling around the place looking for work. Maybe the government is cracking skulls mostly out of fear(no, I,m not saying they’re really nice guys underneath but if a nasty guy is scared it doesn’t improve his behaviour) that if the pesants are not kept down it’s gonna be anarchy in the UK, whoops China. Of course by acting the way they are, the may get the result they didn’t want…

CCtang sincerely sorry for the tough times you had when you were a kid. My own childhood was poorer than it is now but no comparison. Glad to hear things are better now. Of course isn’t that you Chinese all over? Give them an opportunity and it isn’t too long before they’re top of the heap. I’m married to one and you talk about a human dynamo. Hakka too…need I say more? :slight_smile: :help:

Agreed, it all rests on CCTang’s shoulders now. We’ve all had hardships and my parents have had terrible ones too. Although it would seem my father spent his youth on pranks and girls. Many many girls. Oh god explicit things my uncles tell me is downright disturbing and totally unwanted. However there were stories of oppression under the KMT and people lived under similar situations in Taiwan as well.

Anyway I digress, CCTang, my point is very clear; its much easier to take Taiwan with great incentives. So far the CCP isn’t doing enough of a job at it. As you can see people have mentioned that although they have factories or work in China, they still love Taiwan first and foremost. So win their love by doing genuinely good things for Taiwan, not stunning the world with shockers like the Anti-secession law or military tests near Taiwan. I believe that if you could rise from your background, become a business owner, perhaps succeed dramatically, then its your duty to do your best for your peers. Besides the +100 million migrant workers that Taiwanlight mentioned, there are a huge number of poor rural area farmers. You’re a motivated and strong individual, so people need you to help them, whether its by employing locals via competitive rates or building homes, etc, businesses bring up communities.

People want better for themselves. If you can convince most of Taiwan that unification with China is the right thing to do then you better outdo yourself, help your community, and through example, entice the people of Taiwan, this way no one needs to die (Chinese or Taiwanese) and the people in Taiwan will annex willfully, something they won’t do in a military invasion.