Japan is still waiting dawn, But China is very bright

The original link is here.

Since I’m very close to these two countries, I could provide some info. Japan is still a down market, but just some good companies are pretty good like TOYOTA and Nintendo. Nintendo is quite good cauz the profit from hot Wii. Comparing its tri-foes in US, Toyota has better and harder financial statement. Or Rakuten , the critical player in online auction in Japan, is also a good choice. In my point of view, I would buy in unless the Nikke is rising very obviously.

China still got a lot of money-sucker-monsters unlisted. Just like China Tobacco, its revenue and margin are expected to be similar to Microsoft. Remember it just made cigarettes. The retail price of one pack is around 8 US and 30millions of packs are produced daily. Since China got over 1.6-1.7 billions of people(about 0.2-0.3 are not registered). The number is reasonable. A ink print companies is listed just because it prints China Tobacco’s pack.

China Tobacco is expected to launch IPO in 2009.It will push up stock market to the new peak. How many cigarette manufactures are not listed? Over 50. And only few wine manufactures are listed Those are what I called money-sucker-monsters. Another industry is travel and leisure. China’s public travel agencies serve 100 millions of tourists annually and earn millions of money. At the last, still few “dominant” medical instrument produce more and more annually.

Why can China stock market keep up? Most of big companies are owned by gov right now and are “dominant”. So that they can earn very easily. Take China Petroleum & Chemical-h for example, over 50% of 90,000 gas stations in China are owned by it. Dominant and profitable.

That’s my reason to invest China but not Japan. I’ve earned over 60% in 2006 by holding AllianceBernstein Great China fund ( ). It’s not the best. You should find some others in your area.

To find China fund, please check Morning Star HK Fund QuickRank, choose China and Greater China from category. If you don’t want to waste money to fly to HK, I could introduce my advisor to you.

[quote]If you don’t want to waste money to fly to HK, I could introduce my advisor to you[/quote]You mean by means of "duplicated entrustment "?

Japan 's economy is a bit disappointing.
But at least it is a safe and sound market.
Can I know how much confidenceyou can have in Chinese economy?


Yes, safe and sound! Japan is keep down in the past 14 years. That’s really safe and sound and the stock market didn’t move much.

Thanks for sharing this with us.

But we are not allowed to invest all kinds of chinese stocks ,are we?

Thanks for your asking.
Actually,I am still learning about stocks and mutual funds etc.
I am afraid I can’t have enough informations about Chinese economy.
What I worry is the government’s policy.
It is not a free market ,anyway.
I visit your blog.You seem to be possitive in China’s market.
I think I have to do more work and realise more.

Knowing something of Chinese accounting practices, I wouldn’t call any investment in China ‘safe’.

(Unless by safe you mean the kind of safety enjoyed by daytraders of penny stocks following emailed tips.)

I visit your blog.You seem to be possitive in China’s market.
I think I have to do more work and realise more.[/quote]

To understand China, you must understand everything is Taji not black-and-white. I just say it’s positive in the future 2 years due to lots of information like China Tobacco. May China grow forever? Impossible! Just like Jim Rogers say," The bubble is formed but doesn’t burst yet." China’s stock market of course will burst in the future but not right now because their listed big companies earned more 20% revenue than they did in 2006. If you invest funds now then find its bubble bursts and fall down, you have time to ask money back because those II must pay you money. But if you invest stock directly, you will find no one want to buy your stock. To invest mutual fund is a little different from to invest stock. You need to set up loss point on these two tools but you needn’t set up earning point on mutual fund.

The title is misleading. More accurate would be “Japan is awaiting its second dawn after a brilliant first day and a long night; the mid-day sun is burning fiercely bright in China’s first day, but it will suddenly crash from the sky, catching many offguard.”

But I’m sure you know that.

But now US cuts the rate.And some people claim to invest in China more than ever.
Will it be possible that worldwide capital accelerate to invest in China?
I am really curious how the China handle this then?



I wondered how long it would take for the ‘China is the world’s best economy / everyone else sucks’ economic ‘advice’ to show up. I for one would prefer this sort of thing stays at bbs.chinadaily.com.cn :unamused:

They can’t. China has too much money and doesn’t know what to do with it. I wouldn’t put my money there…

Is it the common problem of “BRIC”?

Did you know China used to have 9 suns until the Master Archer shot down 8 suns with his amazing sunkiller arrows?

Dang, China must have had some crazyass hot dawn.

I’d be more concerned about Japan. Apparently they have a problem with “hot Wii”.

Unfortunately, foreigners even can’t buy A-share funds. You can check the performance below and feel terrible. http://cn.morningstar.com/quickrank/default.aspx click YTD return twice. And you’ll find that a fund called 華廈大盤 earn over 200%… Now it’s just September 3, no one know what will happen at the last 4 months of this year.