[quote=“BigJim”]I did a full Ohio calculation below. Kerry has a strictly non-zero probability of having won Ohio. For background, see tompaine.com/articles/kerry_won.php
After counting provisional and ovserseas absentee ballots, Bush’s lead
in Ohio may well be down to 3,669 votes, triggering an automatic recount.
This recount will force 92,672 spoiled ballots to be counted, which we
know from Florida 2000 will be mostly Democratic. Hence Kerry may have
won Ohio by thousands of votes.
Bush currently leads in Ohio by 136,483.
There are 155,337 uncounted provisional ballots in Ohio. 93% of
provisional ballots were valid in 2002 (91% in 2000).
Suppose 95% were valid, slightly higher than the 93% in 2002. (Feasible, given the Republican “challengers” who were at the polls in Ohio this year, forcing minorities to vote provisionally.) That’s
147,570 valid, uncounted provisional ballots
In 2000, 90% of valid ballots went for Gore. Suppose 95% went for Kerry this time (feasible, because of the Republican “challengers” this year,
and consistent with the drastic increase in provisional ballots relative
to 2000 — presumably due to the Republican challenges). That’s
140,192 more Kerry votes
7,378 more Bush votes
This brings Bush’s margin down to 136,483 - 132,814 =
3,669 Bush margin (provisionals counted)
Next, there are an estimated 10,000 overseas Ohio absentee ballots.
Assume they are split 5,000-5,000, so we ignore them. (Note: they may
favour Bush, because of the military vote; at the same time, non-military Americans abroad see how much US-hatred there is, and may be voting mostly for Kerry.) So:
3,669 Bush margin (provisional and overseas absentee ballots counted)
By Ohio state law, a recount is triggered automatically if the election is
within 0.25%, here, 13,725. So there could be a recount.
Finally, there were 92,672 ballots cast on which no vote for president was registered. A small portion may be no-votes, but since Ohio is 70% punch card, most are likely under- or over-votes. As we learned in Florida, those are mostly Dem votes.
Kerry has a non-zero probability of having won Ohio, hence the presidency It would be irrational and illogical for Kerry not to contest Ohio.
Even a low probability would suffice: we are talking about the Presidency of the United States of America.[/quote]
if you’re going to cut and paste from mydd.com, at least have the courtesy to give the guy credit.
and if you’re going to take credit for someone else’s numbers, at least pick something that’s not so obviously made up. 90% of the provisional ballots in 2000 went for gore? yeah, ok. :loco:
btw, that article is hillarious! i especially love the part where he talks about how those 100% accurate exit polls were contaminated when they started factoring in actual vote tallies! :bravo: screw actually counting the votes, let’s select our president from polls with 3-4% margin of error!