Libya - Secular Democracy or Islamist State?

Politics International Politics
1

There is a rise in Islamist states in north Africa. Tunisia, the most ‘westernized’ in the area is moving into a more Islamist regime.
Libya’s interim leader, Mustafa Abul-Jalil, is already implementing strict Sharia law. No interest on home purchases, maybe a good thing for buyers, and the full-blown Sharia version of polygamy, #1 wife no longer has to agree to wives #2, 3 and 4. And much more to be announced.

Given this early climate, does any form of democracy have a chance in this newly formed energy rich state?

2

I am afraid the Arab spring is fast becoming the Islamist spring. I smell the Iranians here.

After a few years of Islamist rule they will be crying for Gadaffi to come back.

3

Where’s my “bloody failed state intent on purging each other” choise. I feel cheated. :doh:

4

Because no one could have ever seen this coming… I mean, they were all going to be Sweden by next April. What’s going on?

5

Democracy requires all sorts of institutions and supports entirely missing… Why would it be expected to flourish right off the bat? Islam enjoys sufficient support to provide a framework for society to hang together while civil institutions begin to emerge. Surprise, surprise. (Sorry to step on the punchline.)

6

Hmmm, civil institutions and Sharia law. I believe these two concepts are somewhat mutually exclusive. :whistle:

7

Well, of course, they are in an independent operational ‘western’ manner.
However, I would suggest one look at the format being espoused by the Tunisian Islamists for a view towards what might be a transformation of 7th century Mohammedanism towards todays 21st century real world.

Now, how this will manifest, if at all, remains to be seen. Egypt appears to be on a downward spiral and the “Arab Spring” looks to be a reversion to a dark winter of Sharia winter.

We shall see what transpires in Libya.

8

The flag of Al Qaeda has been spotted flying over the courthouse in Benghazi, while rebels in Libya are said to have imposed Sharia law since seizing power.

9

So it’s mission accomplished then?

10

Expected.

What amazes me is how the west actually helps the terrorists out and then are shocked when things go pear shaped. :roflmao:

As I stated before, they will be praying for old Gadahffi to come back in a few years.

11

[quote=“bigduke6”]I smell the Iranians here.

[/quote]

So did the Saudis and other Gulf Cooperation countries when things started to get hairy in Bahrain. In Bahrain’s instance, they sent the security forces in and made the right decision in my opinion. I’d rather have Bahrain propped up by GCC countries than being an Iranian proxy.

With regards to Libya and the flags, it is troubling. But Iranians behind it? I don’t think their Shiite radicalism would necessarily blend in with Libya’s Sunni majority. Al Qaeda’s Sunni radicalism–sure. But not Iran.

12

This shouldn’t be taken as a full-throated endorsement of Turkey’s foreign policy, only something to consider as fears of the ‘democratic triumph’ Islamists get play in the press.

Christian Science Monitor: Turkey’s rising clout leaves Iran fuming on sidelines of Arab Spring

[quote]Once friends, Turkey and Iran are finding that their reactions to the Arab Spring revolutions are driving them apart and renewing an old regional rivalry.
[…]
So far, analysts say, Turkey appears the winner in pushing for secular, democratic outcomes in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and especially Syria – even if more by default than by design. And Iran, offering little more than nondemocratic Islamic rule and anti-Western vitriol, at this point appears the loser.

The result is a rekindling of a centuries-old rivalry for influence between the Persians and the Ottomans, with an outcome that “will affect the security architecture of the Middle East for years to come,” according to Gonul Tol and Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute in Washington in a recent analysis.

Iran has claimed, with scant evidence, that the Arab Spring changes are an “Islamic Awakening” modeled after Iran’s own 1979 Islamic Revolution. Popular protests against the regime of Iran’s close ally Syria are an exception, argues Tehran.

Those views – and Iran’s brutal 2009 crackdown against its own pro-democracy protests – have undermined Iran’s appeal across the Arab world, even as Turkey has gained more traction as a model that blends secular, democratic rule with an Islamist bent.
[…]
Turkey’s adjusted approach is not a “coordinated number of steps, following each other, complementing each other,” adds Kalaycioglu. “Rather there are lots of disparities, trials and errors, some erratic moves, and it looks as if the Turkish government currently is testing the waters… The former policy is completely down the drain, of ‘zero problems with neighbors.’ Now we have mounting problems with neighbors.”

Iranian officials have sharply criticized Turkey as a sellout to the West, but recent polling of Arab views indicate that they don’t buy it, and Iran’s popularity has dropped.

“Not only have Arab revolutionaries and protesters seen right through Iran’s clumsy attempt to claim some credit for the Arab Spring, but Turkey has adroitly capitalized on the dramatic changes taking place in the Middle East to increase its influence and prestige among Arab publics, at the expense of its former partnership with Iran,” write Mr. Tol and Mr. Vatanka of the Middle East Institute in Washington in their analysis, published this week on the Tehran Bureau website.[/quote]

13

Uhhhh…Libya?

14

[quote=“TainanCowboy”]Uhhhh…Libya?[/quote]Well, there’s this, from the article…

And it informs an earlier conversation with Tigerman.

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Well, so far we have rebels fighting each other to gain power after Gadaffi’s fall, we have imprisonment, torture and killing of suspected Gadaffi supporters and black Africans in Libya, and now we have the new Libyan leadership taking a harsh stance at the UN against gays…

16

I’m sure we’re just too dumb to figure it all out.

17

I think that we’re beginning to find out that democracy cannot exist without an educated populace.

Unfortunately, I’ve only come to that rather obvious conclusion within the last few years, and what we’ve been seeing in Iraq and other places seems to bear this out.

The concept of a ‘rule of law’ doesn’t come to us naturally. We need to learn it. And, that requires education. And THAT takes time.

Since I am one of those who is guilty of wanting Qaddafi out, I shouldn’t get upset when something worse comes in.

Now that chaos reigns in the maghreb, what do we do to help sort all this out?

(Especially, since we know that the only real solution is education.)

18

[quote=“Got To Be Kidding”]Now that chaos reigns in the maghreb, what do we do to help sort all this out?

(Especially, since we know that the only real solution is education.)[/quote]

Unfortunately, there is no R2E.

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bigduke66 said:

[quote]What amazes me is how the west actually helps the terrorists out and then are shocked when things go pear shaped.

As I stated before, they will be praying for old Gadahffi to come back in a few years.[/quote]

Suspect that has been part of the plan. I doubt the West thought these countries were going democratic. For years they’ve been whinging for ‘true Islam’ as the solution for all their problems. Well, they’re going to get it now and like the Iranians they’re going to find out just how icy an Islamic Spring can be. They’ve just banned coffee shops in Iran as Western influence, and never mind we got them from the Moslems in the first place. I reckon the West is hoping that Islamic societies will implode in the end like the communist countries did. We will see.

20

I reckon they realized that Turkey and the gulf states have worked out relatively well so why not allow the societies to pursue their own path, instead of interfering and propping up despotic regimes all the time and being a convenient enemy to blame for ills.