LY Balance of power

Is that for real? This could be really interesting now. I suppose the arms bill will progress a bit now then. And budgets will be re-instated (How ridiculous was that?).

It goes to show just how deep the values of the blue politicians go doesn’t it, if they are willing to threaten their own majority in legislature?

[quote=“dearpeter”]Is that for real? This could be really interesting now. I suppose the arms bill will progress a bit now then. And budgets will be re-instated (How ridiculous was that?).

It goes to show just how deep the values of the blue politicians go doesn’t it, if they are willing to threaten their own majority in legislature?[/quote]

Yup. I read it first at The China Post of all places:

[quote]The DPP could take some comfort in the fact that five KMT winners in the elections are members of the national Legislature.

They will have to give up their lawmaker seats, and as a result the opposition camp will lose their thin majority in the Legislature.

While the DPP in their heyday never once obtained a majority of seats in the Legislature, the next two years until the 2007 legislative elections may be the only time that the DPP comes closest to dominating the Legislature.

The DPP will see less obstruction in pushing its policies, but it will need the support of its ally – the Taiwan Solidarity Union – and independents. The DPP still have two years to win back voters’ trust until the 2007 legislative elections, which are expected to be a prelude to the final showdown in the 2008 presidential poll.[/quote]

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/detail.asp?ID=73026&GRP=A

I hope someone could tell us about the by-election protocol in Taiwan. If he indeed has a majority for the rest of his term, then I hope to hell this election doesn’t throw him off and cause him to be less aggressive. That previous December election made him cave in – I hope he doesn’t this time. It may be Taiwan’s last opportunity (if he has a majority the rest of his term in the legislature).

The China Post is on the “pan-Blue” side of the aisle when it comes to media bias… so, you’d think they’d be accurate with this sort of news.

But the China Times suggests differently:

news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/M … +1,00.html

雖然朝野黨團對討論兩岸關係有共識,但周錫瑋等四名立委轉戰百里侯成功,泛藍立委僅剩一百一十一席,恰好過半,加上馬英九輔選橘營人選不力,宋楚瑜對親民黨繼續扮演國民黨最佳盟友角色保留,泛藍合作產生隱憂。

It says clearly the pan-Blues will retain a minimal (but absolute) majority in the legislative yuan. The article claims that with the loss of 5 pan-Blue members, that leaves 111 in the legislature. This would no longer be a majority if there were still 225 total legislators, but does represent a majority out of the 220 remaining legislators.

Has anyone actually seen a reference to a by-election for these positions in any of the press, or is this just speculation on your parts? I haven’t seen any reference to it, and I’d think it’d be a major issue (not to mention a major strategic gamble for the Blues) if one was immediately pending.

Are the 5 members leaving the legislators elected, or were they selected by party via the proporational share? If it’s the latter, I’d expect the party to just name their replacements.

Numerous articles in the Chinese press confirm that the pan-Blues (combined) will retain a majority in the legislative yuan.

This is probably the most detailed:

cbs.org.tw/big5/CbsRealNews/ … s_id=55970

Constitutionally, there are a total of 225 legislators. 4 KMT legislators won positions in this election and will be leaving the Yuan. The DPP’s Hsu is headed for 12 years in prison. That leaves us with a total of 220 legislators, and there’s no automatic by-election put in place to replace them.

The only exception will be in Chiayi, where the departure of the current KMT legislator puts them below mandated levels of representation in the legislative yuan. There will be a by-election for that spot, leaving us a total of 221 total legislators. 111 becomes the magic number for “majority”.

The KMT retains 79 members of the legislative yuan, and the PFP has 32 for a total of 111. That doesn’t include independents like Li Ao, who’ll certainly vote on the pan-Blue side for cross-strait affairs. There are also the 8 members of the ‘no-party’ alliance.

If the KMT/PFP can maintain previous levels of cooperation (and Ma promises to make a gesture to Soong), then the pan-Blues will retain absolute majority with or without any by-election. I’m rooting for Ma and the KMT causus to step up and do the right thing: forward the PFP’s cross-strait bill, especially while the DPP has no semblance of any sort of public mandate.