How about comparing the number of votes from 2004 to 2008? In 2004, 13.1 million ballots were officially cast, and in 2008, 12.8 million ballots were cast. Why were there more ballots cast in 2004 than in 2008 and why is the invalid ballot rate so abnormally distributed and high in 2004 and not in 2008?
Having a higher voting rate does not prove fraud, but it raises an eyebrow that the voting rate could go down after 4 years of new voters coming of age. Or you could just say that 2008 was not a hot election because it was a foregone conclusion after the Legislative election months before.
My point is that the DPP support rate or Pan Green support rate has been about the same from 2001 to 2012. I compare the presidential support rate in 2012 to legislative support rate in 2001 because the 2000 and 2004 election results are not credible. The population should have grown or at least gotten younger in those 10 years, and the DPP support rate is still the same.
Of course, I can’t predict what will happen over the next 10 or 20 years, but until I see the trend change, I am stating the mere fact that the DPP support rate has been the same for about the last 10 years or so.
Sure I can see that there is swing in the voting. In 2004, it was about 55-45 before swinging to 53-47 after the 319 incident before good old fashion election fraud made it 50-50 in favor of Chen. In 2008, the typical 55-45 or 54-46 swung all the way to 58-42, and in in 2012 it swung back to 54.3% and 45.6%.
And 2001 and 2004 legislative elections are about the same and both of those elections were held under normal circumstances without widespread cheating.
I can’t comment on the impacts of vote buying, but we will just have to see if the new voters that come of age between 2012 and 2016 swing more on way or the other. I know that younger people in their 20’s tend to vote more DPP, but as people get older, it swings back in the KMT’s favor. So younger voters in the past will also get older as the years go by. It’s not like all new voters are green and stay green.
The ROC voting system can be rigged and both parties want to be able to do it when they need to, but my point is that the KMT has not needed to rig a national election in its favor because it has enough support to do win without cheating.
If you look at 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, both parties have 2 wins a piece, and there was widespread election fraud reported in 2 of those elections and mostly in 2004. In 2000, less fraud was initially reported because it was done by both the KMT and DPP parties against Soong. But in 2004, it was a straight up blue vs. green election so it was reported right away.
Now you could say that the DPP party knows how to lose an election without getting into a fuss, and the KMT doesn’t, or you could say that 2000 and 2004 were rigged. It should also be noted that in 2008 and 2012 there weren’t widespread reports of fraud.
It’s not true that the DPP or the Dangwai don’t get upset when they get believe they have been cheated. They have had a history of getting very upset and violent when the KMT has stolen elections from them in the past. They can also accept it when they lose normally. As the KMT does.