News is beginning to flow. Negotiators for KMT and CCP have reached a deal on permission for 500 items from Taiwan, and 200 from China.
Yep, official media has spoken. How accurately, who knows?
tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/ … 27enq.html
[quote]ECFA seen as done deal
2010/06/13 21:06:23
Taipei, June 13 (CNA) A proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) across the Taiwan Strait is now seen as a done deal, as both sides have reached consensus on the text of the accord, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) said Sunday.
Each side’s “early harvest” lists of goods and services to be subject to tariff waivers or easier market access terms under the agreement will be incorporated as appendices to the ECFA after being further verified by the two sides, the quasi-official intermediary body announced in a press statement.
The SEF announcement came after the Taiwanese and Chinese chief negotiators – Huang Chih-peng, director-general of the Bureau of Foreign Trade under Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, and Tang Wei, director of the Department of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau Affairs under China’s Ministry of Commerce – said in Beijing earlier in the day that expert-level ECFA negotiations had been completed.
[/quote]
From CNA
[quote]Taiwan and China wrap up 3rd round of ECFA talks with early harvest agreement
China gives tariff benefits to 500 products and services, Taiwan lists 200
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Negotiators from Taiwan and China wrapped up their third round of preparatory talks for the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Beijing Sunday with an agreement on an “early harvest” list of products and services subject to tariff cuts.
China had agreed to give tariff benefits to a list of 500 products and services from Taiwan, while Taiwan listed more than 200 Chinese items in a move which was interpreted as benefiting Taipei, reports said.
The talks had initially been expected last month, but never got off the ground until now amid reports of disagreements.
Negotiators on the Taiwan side were representing the elected government, not the KMT. 
It’s a great thing if the dispute resolution mechanisms allows for expeditious panel hearings to resolve formal complaints. The anti-free trade foreign academics on this site always criticize China as being a lawless place run by authoritarian political leaders, but isn’t this a step forward for transparency and the rule of law? I trust these complaint panels and the international lawyer that sit on most of them much more than some political leader or government clerk in Bumfuck, Taiwan, or Bumfuck, China.
Not that the KMT wasn’t over in China meeting with the CCP while CSB was President of Taiwan. I don’t support either party, but it seemed ballsy for the KMT to essentially bypass the “elected government” of Taiwan and make agreements with the controlling party of the Chinese government.
And, pardon my unfamiliarity with the details, but were there also duly elected DPP representatives involved in the ECFA negotiations?
Sorry, but I just fail to believe that this will benefit Taiwan, at least the middle and lower classes. Everyone I talk to has said that probably 90%+ of what manufacturing remains in Taiwan will move to China under ECFA. What will there be left to be exported to China, besides workers?
What worries me is the situation in China and how it is going to play out on Taiwan after ECFA. The workers there are asking for better salaries, while the Taiwanese heads of business are offering to come back to Taiwan as long as they can have Chinese-cheap labor.
Hence, if the strongmen prevail, and things keep on going as they are, what can happen is to have Chinese migration to Taiwan in mass numbers -the only way to entice them to work here would be better living conditions, including the possibility to stay, as salary wise they are still screwed up- while living conditions in China deteriorate due to factories -not only Taiwanese, as this is a chain reaction- moving out as costs rise.
Back home, they already have an influx of Chinese workers that will soon parallel that of when the Canal was built. And we are halfway across the globe. The illegal Asian immigrants are caught by the boatload. So, I see little effort in building an internal market in China. Sure, there are pockets of opulence, but based on what and for how long? They are following a very Latin American-like model, with its consequences: inestability, clashes, enviromental and health deterioration, plus blame shifting on the “western powers”. Deja vu all over again…
[quote=“CraigTPE”]… it seemed ballsy for the KMT to essentially bypass the “elected government” of Taiwan and make agreements with the controlling party of the Chinese government.
[/quote]
Well, it’s SOP for China to negotiate with whoever is more amenable to their agenda. For example, China is talking happily with the South Korean opposition and refusing to meet with the government over NK’s torpedoing of it’s ships.
And since when has KMT given a rat’s ass about the wishes of the people, except at election time?
Agree. Even the wealthy that stand to gain are likely to soon realize this is merely a Trojan horse, but by then it will be too late, and they’ll all be living the good life in a third country of their choosing, while the rest of Taiwan has the jackboot on it’s neck. :raspberry:
Not that the KMT wasn’t over in China meeting with the CCP while CSB was President of Taiwan. I don’t support either party, but it seemed ballsy for the KMT to essentially bypass the “elected government” of Taiwan and make agreements with the controlling party of the Chinese government.
And, pardon my unfamiliarity with the details, but were there also duly elected DPP representatives involved in the ECFA negotiations?
Sorry, but I just fail to believe that this will benefit Taiwan, at least the middle and lower classes. Everyone I talk to has said that probably 90%+ of what manufacturing remains in Taiwan will move to China under ECFA. What will there be left to be exported to China, besides workers?[/quote]
Taiwan is mostly a service economy anyway. Over 70% of GDP comes from services, versus 21% from manufacturing (and less than 5% for agriculture).
Not that the KMT wasn’t over in China meeting with the CCP while CSB was President of Taiwan. I don’t support either party, but it seemed ballsy for the KMT to essentially bypass the “elected government” of Taiwan and make agreements with the controlling party of the Chinese government.
And, pardon my unfamiliarity with the details, but were there also duly elected DPP representatives involved in the ECFA negotiations?
Sorry, but I just fail to believe that this will benefit Taiwan, at least the middle and lower classes. Everyone I talk to has said that probably 90%+ of what manufacturing remains in Taiwan will move to China under ECFA. What will there be left to be exported to China, besides workers?[/quote]
Taiwan is mostly a service economy anyway. Over 70% of GDP comes from services, versus 21% from manufacturing (and less than 5% for agriculture).[/quote]
Most mature economies are 70% service based, that’s why china can still grow until this threshold is reached - it’s an economic marker.
The issue is that manufacturing and agriculture bring money in and make foreign currency and if these go, the economy collapses and there are no services left.
We’ll see what happens, I’m off home anyways, my timing could almost be Taiwanese
Would it be safe to say that a fair amount of the service economy in Taiwan are the mom and pops who serve the local communities? How are they going to benefit? Who are they going to sell their breakfast sandwiches to when all the laborers are out of work?
[quote=“itakitez”]
Most mature economies are 70% service based, that’s why china can still grow until this threshold is reached - it’s an economic marker.
The issue is that manufacturing and agriculture bring money in and make foreign currency and if these go, the economy collapses and there are no services left.
We’ll see what happens, I’m off home anyways, my timing could almost be Taiwanese[/quote]
If the service side of the manufacturing is still based here (as I believe is the intention) the money still flows in though, doesn’t it?
Ultimately, we probably need to wait for some international media analysis on it in the coming days to get an idea of how beneficial or detrimental it’ll be. The local media will either be saying that it’ll be great for Taiwan (if they’re blue) or a nightmare (if green).
But… but… but… if the KMT – sorry – the government!!! 
were to pander to the interests of the minority party, wouldn’t that be like, erm… undemocratic? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:
Pollution? I’d say they have it coming.
Negotiators on the Taiwan side were representing the elected government, not the KMT. [/quote]
The international media aren’t any good either. I’m afraid you’ll have to wait until the stuff comes out in the journals.
Some of the think tank stuff here in Taiwan on both sides of the pro-Taiwan/China divide is pretty good. Lots of delicious numbers.
“but isn’t this a step forward for transparency and the rule of law?”
Could be if (1) there is such a mechanism and (2) it is enforceable. But like you, we are all forced to wait on the revelations contained in this document.
As I noted today on the blog, it seems that the “details” have yet to be announced and tariff reductions may take a while. So we may be waiting a long time to see the effects of ECFA.
But see them we shall. And then? Once your greensaying doomsayers have been finally debunked once and for all? Oh! I shall enjoy the schadenfreude all the more. Hopefully by that time you’ll have upgraded your bicycle and camera, so at least I’ll have THAT going for me!
You KNOW, deep in your innermost, that more, rather than less, interaction with the outside world is the ONLY way forward for this country. And the ONLY way Taiwan can do that is with China’s approval. This isn’t blue or green. It is the nature of the beast.
I know that this painful fact pains you, but really!
You take some very very nice shots and you get to some really really nice spots, but MAN! Your underwear is showing! And its NOT true blue. Its partisan green. And I’m firmly convinced that you DO know better than that!
I’m interested – No! Stop laughing! I mean it. What has the DPP EVER put forward as a means of expanded trade with the rest of the world?
Don’t waste your time searching for links. The answer, in real, practical terms, is: NADA! ZILCH! ZERO! SWEET BUGGER-ALL.
You paint me, I know, blue as blue can be, but I’m not. I don’t give a toss about the petty political factions on this dear sweet island, but I CAN see which side of the toast has the butter on it and which side is underneath, growing GREEN mould by the second.
[quote=“sandman”]
You paint me, I know, blue as blue can be, but I’m not. I don’t give a toss about the petty political factions on this dear sweet island, but I CAN see which side of the toast has the butter on it and which side is underneath, growing GREEN mould by the second.[/quote]
:bravo: :bravo: :bravo: :bravo:
So is what you’re saying that the interests of the citizens who voted for the minority party should be entirely locked out? Wouldn’t a democracy have proportional representation in the process?
In a previous post, it seemed like anyone who doubted ECFA was a blind DPP supporter. I don’t side with any Taiwanese political party. I agree that the DPP dropped the ball on the economy in it’s relentless pursuit of declaring independence. I think my questions are fair.
While not a scientific survey, talking to several companies who have manufacturing both in Taiwan and China, all have told me that the facilities in Taiwan will be closed when ECFA passes. With tariffs gone, it will be cheaper for them to manufacture in China and ship back to Taiwan. This is not politics or speculation, but actual business plans. How is that good for Taiwan’s local economy? What jobs will be created in Taiwan? Taiwanese business owners will be able to own 100% of their operations in China without a local joint-venture, but again, how does this help the average Taiwanese? The rich will likely get richer, and on a political note, we learned in the US that trickle-down doesn’t happen.