Yeah, a nice dead cat bounce… However, as said before, 1-2 good says don’t imply that the tide has turned.
Oh so negative, as a matter of interest where/how to you invest your money?
I read yesterday that financials were rising because of increased loans because manufacturers what to invest in more equipment.
OPEC have agreed to increas output, not enough but it helps.
I am in no way 100% sure that there are good times ahead, but you have yet to convince me that there are bad times ahead either.
I’m keeping the investments I have but not making adding any more money, the market seems to be meeting resistance around the 6000-6200 market.
Yours optimistically,
Fresh meat
Eva airline went up a dollar. Yippeee!
Any sell signs?
A lot of shares went limit up in the last hour of trading, why was this?
Oh the joys of being an illinformed foreigner
[quote=“Rumpelstiltskin”]Oh so negative, as a matter of interest where/how to you invest your money?
I read yesterday that financials were rising because of increased loans because manufacturers what to invest in more equipment.
OPEC have agreed to increas output, not enough but it helps.
I am in no way 100% sure that there are good times ahead, but you have yet to convince me that there are bad times ahead either.
I’m keeping the investments I have but not making adding any more money, the market seems to be meeting resistance around the 6000-6200 market.
Yours optimistically,
Fresh meat[/quote]
Both good and bad news tend to be over-priced into the markets, and yes, I am a ber, due to the relationship between the interest rates and the market. The rest of my reasons have been fleshed out earlier, by both Ezee! and me.
I don’t invest in stocks, as I currently spend every penny on starting a trading company. If I were, I would put them in the SPX index fund.
[quote=“sticks of fury”]Eva airline went up a dollar. Yippeee!
Any sell signs?
[/quote]
I am merely a chartist, but the charts are actually not bad. I would hang for the time being, there’s still a bit left in it.
Have been busy. Last I posted, I had been calling for a short-term bounce from the 5800 level, which didn’t happen after a week and I had turned flattish. Then there was a one day drop exacerbated by China statements. This shook out weak hands, and the market has since marched upwards. Actually, this is an interesting point and valuable lesson, that often before taking off in a move over any period-short/medium/long term, a market will have a sudden plunge. Hence, the floor of 5,800 wasn’t a bad call, but not good enough either…would have been smarter to say 5,800 is a floor, buy on any drop.
But anyway…
Mr. He called the bottom well by stating 5,400. It only got to 5,450 odd before being bought.
Yesterday’s last auction jump of 50 points was caused by simex and taifex players pushing the market up, since it was the last trading day of the simex. Monday could correct lower a little at the open.
Now where are we?
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Have almost recovered half of the drop from 7,135 to 5,450 (6,300 or so). I see this as current level as critical, and on a move higher would take half of any position off to watch market action at the level. A lot of locals expect market to test 5,000 before any attempt in the medium term to move up near 7,000. There is a lot of resistance above 6,500 becuase of the huge volume when market was moving up in Feb-early March.
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Volume…remains anaemic. FWIW, QFII have started buying again. I have no comment…apart from, possibly they’re right.
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KD charts, weekly and monthly remain weak.
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In the medium term-long term I remain slightly pessimistic. I refer to Belkin’s predictions. There are a couple of recent headlines I feel warrant attention:
****Economy’s Consumer Engine May Be Slowing…By Rebecca Byrne…Recent data indicate that the pace of spending is starting to slow.
thestreet.com/markets/rebecc … 62899.html
****Jon D. Markman…Growth Signals Turn Yellow…A top forecaster says the economy will slow dramatically over the next three to six months.
thestreet.com/funds/supermod … 62414.html
- Oil fundamentals are changing…wow, there were even protests on the streets of Lebanon recently over the high oil prices…look here for a comment that any dip in these stocks after OPEC meets June 3 could be aa buying opportunity:
thestreet.com/funds/jubak/10162123.html
OK, it’s a beautiful day, time to get outside, if I feel like it will finish this later.
Place careful stops. Follow your own plan.
Does it look like the market found the bottom and it’s going up from here?
A question. In the summer session or the 2nd quarter, do the stocks generally move sideways more than ups and downs?
On a seasonal basis, the 4th quarter and the first quarter aare the best ones for stock ownership.
In London they say “Sell in May and walk away”, but strangely enough, June is on average a flat month on the TAIEX, with bad months being April, May, July, August, and September. December is good, and so is the time around CNY.
Almost, maybe Thursday or Friday. The market did open down on Monday, and kept falling…I think it didn’t have a sufficient top, and hence will revise my expectations for a higher surge: I now can see a bottom thursday-friday, and a steady move higher to 6500+ during June (well, sometime medium term).
Fundamental justifications could be higher OPEC output, political visibility clearing up a little for now, TAIEX EPS very low considering solid earnings.
Those QFII have been running away, I wonder how long they will stay tentative on Taiwan…political troubles loom in 6-months. Anyway, Mr He has much more understanding of these issues.
Seems to be forming a good base, and weekly kd is on second reading looking good.
Keep a moving stop to protect your profits, and mortgage the house. 
Not in my opinion.
I hate being right, hope that you used the bounce to ease your positions a bit. Well, what do I say?
Perhaps you can start buy in October, that’s a good time for some seasonal fun.
So, Mr. He and Ezeee (although Mr. He tells me not to listen to your advice 
) please explain why we did not experience a typical “double-bounce” scenario in Taiwan in the past few months.
I’ve read that following a long decline, the market (or a stock) will sometimes bounce back not just once but twice, and if it does so the second bounce will result in a turnaround and big gains. Here in Taiwan the TAIEX has been falling since the beginning of March, and it bounced back twice, but it looks like it’s still heading down. What’s the deal? Is there really such a thing as a double-bounce scenario or is that just some BS terminology made up by analysts after the fact so they will sound like they knew what they were doing all along?
If a double-bounce is good, is a triple-bounce reaaaaally good? Maybe that’s what we’re in for. 
First, I really have to change this username, it was the first word I saw on an email when I was scrambling for a name to start posting. Sometimes life is easy, often not.
Second, please don’t listen to me, Mr. He’s right. I am only posting for my own amusement.
Third, Mr. He is an expert on stocks (2618 above…). As he knows, being generally right and sometimes wrong is not enough. One has to squeeze as much profit out of the calls as possible to make up for the element of risk.
Fourth, best idea would be to print out both of our opinions, stick them on a wall with a bunch of other random numbers, and get your pet orangutang to throw a dart.
Fifth, I have a lot of time for your posts, and Mr. He has said you’re a good sort. I’ll be giving him a right bollocking tonight for disparaging me, but that’s cool. I am a little optimistic that this time it will move up.
Sixth, it may hit a bottom sometime soon. I don’t care if I am wrong, bc I’m just watching. Volume was 30bill higher today, weekly kd is nice, daily is coming around nicely. The mood of market players is improving. Still, market fundamentals suck in many ways.
Seventh, I’ve heard more mention of double tops than double bottoms. Mr. He can comment more since he has read several TA books. Anyway, since you like the yahoo charts, here is one:
(oops, looks like a nice double top :s )
I hope you can clearly see that each bottom, short medium or long term was a perfect double curve. No? Well, squint and move the screen around, I guarantee that you’ll eventually see the truth. As far as whether a triple bounce is really good? Definitely, but why not wait for the proven fourth wave of the inner market cycle 
? Besides, as Mr He. says, it’s only a dead cat anyway
here are a couple of suggestions:
construction sector looks good, check out 2535 (I know, maybe one day late, sorry)…for posterity’s sake, it closed at 10.3 up limit on Friday.
2536 is also strong, closed up limit at 23.4 om Friday.
Steel sector looks postively orgasmic. Check out 2006…closed up limit at 22.8 on Friday.
The three picks, plus the steel sector mentioned above have excellent weekly charts.
Basically, if market continues to move up like I predicted, then these stocks are great buys. However, if it is a false bottom, then stop yourself out. If you believe Mr He, then go short.
Does anyone know why. . .
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TSMC posted its best sales month ever in May (NT$21 billion, up from $16 billion last May);
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its second best month ever in April (NT$20 billion);
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its sales for the first five months of 2004 were 40 percent higher than the same period last year;
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the Taiwan Ratings Corp, the local arm of Standard & Poors, just upgraded TSMC’s rating from twAA+ to twAAA; and
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experts are all talking about what a great year 2004 is/will be for sales of chips, with 30 percent growth this year (followed by 10 - 12 percent growth annually for the decade);
but TSMC’s 1 year chart looks like this:
Is it because of the tremendous expenditures they are making on new fabs? If not that then what?
BTW: I believe all of the above could also be said of UMC.
simple. You know about it, and so does every punter on this island, so it’s already in the price. Therefore, it can’t go further, and things not going up end up going down.
A quick comment. Last week I picked a bottom on a decent move, and all the stocks I predicted were solid. But the market has drifted right back down again.
Not sure what will happen next. Maybe slowly up to 6300-6500 from Tuesday or Wednesday? Maybe straight down?
No matter, remember to always keep a moving stop, and take profits.
Mother Teresa wrote:
I should reply in more detail to your good points, but here’s a hint to start…
[quote=“EEzzee!”]
Mother Teresa wrote:
I should reply in more detail to your good points, but here’s a hint to start…
[/quote]
Must be a seasonal thing then.
Also, how do the new fabs from the Chinese like Grace Semi (owned by the former prez Mr. Ziang’s son) affect TSMC? Are they going online this year? Maybe that’s why it’s not climbing.
Also heard they have lots of shares outstanding. Maybe too diluted?