National Assembly Elections

Not that you’d notice it, but there’s another national election coming up on Saturday. From the lack of publicity and interest in it, I’m guessing that turnout will be somewhere around 20% … which would make it a bit of a joke.

The election is all about the constitutional reform package that was unanimously agreed by the legislature last year: abolishing the national assembly, halving the legislature, changing the voting system for the legislature, and making constitutional change happen via a referendum. In my view, these are all very positive changes - so I’m a bit pissed off with the PFP & TSU for doing an about face and attempting to block the whole thing.

Will the KMT & DPP win enough seats to push through the changes to the constitution? Or will the PFP & TSU pick up enough seats to block it? Or even worse, will the legislature fail to agree on the voting procedure for the national assembly, and let it disband without even voting on anything?

Anyone got any predictions?

Yes. I’ll be stuck in the effing office until 9pm or later, covering a piss-ant joke of an election that no-one is interested in voting in, far less reading about. :fume: :fume: :fume:

Yes. I’ll be stuck in the effing office until 9pm or later, covering a piss-ant joke of an election that no-one is interested in voting in, far less reading about. :fume: :fume: :fume:[/quote]

Well I’ll be standing in the voting lines along with aborignal girl. I’ll be checking out her mouse me thinks…

Turn out is expected to be less than 40%. The election is actually quite important because it will restructure the legislature and write referendums into the constitution. Expect much weirdness over the next few weeks since the rules for voting in the assembly have yet to be set by the legislature. I agree that PFP and TSU are behaving poorly, although giiven the fact that they will cease to exist if the amendments pass, it’s tough to blame them.

I believe the amendments are ratified clause by clause. So the TSU can vote against the amendment dealing with the legislature and still vote for the one on the referendum.

Most recent results. The DPP and TSU are almost reaching 50 percent of the vote. I hope the Chicoms in Beijing are choking on these results :raspberry:

43.7 --DPP :notworthy:
38.7 – KMT
7.1 – TSU :notworthy:
6.1 – PFP

I guess the public was not too happy with “Panda Diplomacy.” I’m especially suprised at the poor showing of the PFP :smiling_imp: :bravo:

Are you quite sure? I was under the impression that its an “all or nothing” deal.
Plus, I just won NT$1,000 at work. Woo hoo! Silly buggers believed the hype and predicted a 40% turnout. I went for 20% and the actual was a measly 25%.
“What if we held an election and nobody came?”

Indeed amazing to see the DPP manage 3% more than the KMT. Was it the rain? Here in Hsinchu, it was pelting. Thankfully we are a KMT stronghold (ie, the KMT lost votes due to the rain…)

Great to see the PFP traitors far off the pace. It’s NB to remember that the TSU will NOT likely be supporting the DPP on some of the major issues to be discussed. Big e.g. Cutting the Fisticuffs, I mean Legislative Yuan, down to 113 from 225 members. Most parties, including the TSU, stand to LOSE from this, as constituencies will be bigger, and a first-past-the-post policy will be followed, meaning that independents and smaller parties will not manage to get seats in parliament. The “wasted” 3-20% of the votes will then be divided among the bigger parties, ie DPP & KMT. Although this is better for efficiency (one party is more likely to manage a 50% majority), it does mean minority interests and “special issues” groups will be sidelined.

Imagine the ABC Party gets 7% of the vote in each constituency in Taiwan, but doesn’t win a single seat in any one constituency. Under the current system, they would still get about 16 seats (7% of 225 seats). If the number of seats is halved to 113, but the same proportional representation system is kept, they would still get 7% of 113 seats, = 8 seats. This is only a ROUGH estimate as it is not calculated exactly like this, but I’m simplifying it. Under the proposed system (first-past-the-post), they might find themselves with ZERO seats out of 113, because they don’t win any single seat in a constituency. Instead, their 7% will be divided among the parties which DO manage at least one constituency win. Therefore I can’t see 7% parties like the TSU supporting THIS constitutional amendment.

We might just see the KMT and DPP agreeing on this issue :astonished: . The KMT has said hey favour it (of course, it benefits them), but we may also just see them suddenly reneg just to be uppity (a la arms deal and gazillions of other more frivolous issues).

I don’t see the relevance of this figure. The pro-amendment parties (the DPP and the KMT) have 80% between them.

It isn’t really relevent in terms of any of the voting of the National Assembly. It only matters if you believe the media hype about this being a “referendum on Chen’s China policy.” The international news media is already proclaiming that the result will “ease pressure on Chen to reconcile with China.” No doubt, Chen will choose to interpret it that way too because it suits his purpose…kind of like being thrown a life preserver. The result will probably take some wind out of Soong’s sails who feels like “the man” after meeting with Hu.

Here’s what CNN’s got to say:

[quote]Taiwan President Chen Shuibian’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the most votes in an election on Saturday, a result that could ease pressure on the independence-minded leader to reconcile with China.

The Central Election Commission said the DPP won 42.52 percent of votes, compared to 38.92 percent by the island’s biggest opposition party, the Nationalists or Kuomintang (KMT).[/quote]

I’ve been pretty disappointed with the Greens lately, and the Blues desperately need an internal revolution. I’m happy to say that my feelings for the PFP have never wavered, however. I still loathe them as much as I ever did. I’m very happy that they performed so poorly. :notworthy:

I’m very pleased with the results of the election. I think these constitutional reforms are very necessary, especially the changes to the election of representatives in the LY. I just hope the current LY can get their act together and agree on how the National Assembly is supposed to operate. I think this certainly seals the fate of the TSU and PFP. Good riddance to both. :raspberry:

I think this is a bit off topic.

There is a referendum in BC, Canada on a voting system called Single Transferrable Vote which is supposed to guarantee more proportional representation. Does anybody know anything about this?

The LY has (finally!) passed the law on how the National Assembly will operate, with a 75% threshold to pass the Constitutional ammendments, which shouldn’t be a problem. They have to meet within 10 days of the official announcement of the election results and have to be finished within 30 days. So, it should be getting going pretty soon.

… or so you would think. China Post

I’m guessing that the DPP is worried that several KMT/DPP NA members will vote against (or abstain) the reform - and so is trying to change the threshold to 50% (or 66%). All the same, it seems pretty loopy behaviour by the DPP: vote for legislation one day, then try to overturn it the next … such is Taiwanese politics :loco:

BTW: Is it normal in American English to say ‘three fourths’? In the UK it’s ‘three quarters’. I’ve seen ‘three fourths’ a few times in Taiwan, and was wondering whether it is unique ‘Taiwanese English’ or slightly more mainstream than that …

Actually there are some problems. The procedural law says the Assembly has to ratify the amendments by the 3/4 majority. Crucially, void ballots count, which means that people in the DPP and the KMT who (against party police) do not want the amendments to pass might be able to lean on enough National Assembly members to make sure the amendements don’t pass.

The DPP caucus is going to ask the LY to reconsider the law. Again, this complicates things because the legal status of the procedural law may be in question if the motion to reconsider is not dealt with this week.

But nothing has changed since Friday - when the DPP helped pass the law. Why the change in position? If they couldn’t get agreement on a 50%/66% ratification level last Friday, they’re not going to this week … the most that’s likely to happen from this is that the existing law might be thrown out, meaning the National Assembly won’t be able to vote at all. Total nuts, no?

Yep, it’s fine. quarters/fourths are used pretty much interchangably in math. The only time I can think of when you would use quarters but not fourths would be in measuring time.