Need a mathematician, statistician, for SETI

SETI - the Search for Exciting Taiwanese Intelligences - has preoccupied me for a while.

I know some stunningly sexy women. Some of them are single. I know some cool and interesting people too. And some of them are single. I even know people who are smart, vivacious, energetic, healthy, positive, curious about everything, etc.

But I don’t know any reasonably presentable single women who are interesting, energetic, smart, and otherwise able to hold my attention for long. Theoretically they must be out there, but I just don’t meet them. (Which is odd, as my job requires me to meet a lot of people.)

So I’m left with this kind of Fermi Paradox. Where is everybody? Of course, I could just be looking in the wrong places, but before asking that question in D&R, I’d first like to try and be a bit more scientific here in this forum and try and get some meaningful figures about Taiwan in general - and how best to interpret them. So I’ve come up with this variation on the Drake Equation.

N = P x F x A x S x E x I x O x C x F x M x T

(Each of the terms except the first is a percentage)

Can anyone help me refine this, or help quantify the result? I wasn’t sure what to do about attractiveness, language ability, and stuff like smoking and drinking/clubbing because they might be too heavily influenced by the other stuff.

Anyway:

N = number of possibly compatible “other”

P = population, which I’m limiting to the Taipei Metropolitan Area, although a better measure would be “within one hour of my home”. Wikipedia puts this number at 6,752,826

F = the percentage that are female, say 50%

A = within an acceptable age range. Assuming life expectancy of 70 years, then say 1.4% of the population for every year within your range. I’m going for the absolute maximum here, by accepting anyone between legal age and middle-age collapse, a period of 30 years, or 42%

S = single and available. I’m guessing that most teens are single, but probably not available (in general terms, not just for me) whereas few older women are single but the ones that are are probably available. A total guess gives me a figure of 20%

E = energetic. I’m no athlete, but I can’t stand those bovine lasses that refuse to walk anywhere and never want to do anything. A simple benchmark I use is “does she stand still on the escalator or does she walk?” - 10%?

I = interests. Learning English and dating foreigners don’t count. Neither do shopping, sleeping, karaoke, or eating. Must have something going on that makes her stand out. Hmmm, 20%?

O = goes outside. Sunshine, hiking, beach, all that good stuff. If there’s anyone left by now, I’d say that only 10% of them fit this requirement if I’m being really optimistic.

C = can do. Stop making fucking excuses. Just do it. Enough said? 10%

F = family not getting in the way. Impossible, I know. In all probability it’s not even 1%, so I’m going to optimistic and say that I’m completely wrong and use a value of 100% instead.

M = mobile phone doesn’t rule your life. When you’re with me, turn the bloody thing off, or at least to silent and exercise some restraint when answering it. And you don’t need to call me every 20 minutes when we’re not together. This is basically an issue of insecurity, so maybe I should change this term to reflect the big problem. Anyway… 20%?

T = aware of time. Late is rude. 10%

Anything I’ve forgotten? Any refinements on the numbers? Currently I’m at

N = 6,752,826 x 50% x 42% x 20% x 10% x 20% x 10% x 10% x 100% x 20% x 10%
N = 1

If anyone knows this girl, would you put her in touch? Thanks.

Loretta, you are an utter mentallist, on so many levels. It’s why we love you/avoid Taipei county.

Bittercup wrote: [quote]Loretta, you are an utter mentallist,[/quote]

Yep, he’s a sex maniac, always thinking about boobies. All those lonely nights at sea I guess.

Oh, “utter” - well yes, completely mad. Loretta, old chap, you need to set yourself up as a management guru, love guru, or start a religion, or perhaps combine the three.

[quote=“almas john”]Bittercup wrote: [quote]

Zip it, aunty pod.

Actually your formula should look more like this …

Just a sample …

Parameters

* Population mean = μ = ( Σ Xi ) / N
* Population standard deviation = σ = sqrt [ Σ ( Xi - μ )2 / N ]
* Population variance = σ2 = Σ ( Xi - μ )2 / N
* Variance of population proportion = σP2 = PQ / n
* Standardized score = Z = (X - μ) / N
* Population correlation coefficient = ρ = [ 1 / N ] * Σ { [ (Xi - μX) / σx ] * [ (Yi - μY) / σy ] }

Womens loves them mathematicians.

You’re math is skewed. I know of two such lasses, and one’s mine.

You forgot “W”

W= Would give me the time of day.

So, Jaboney, I think a PM is in order with the details on the one you’re NOT married to.

(I’m assuming you aren’t ready to trade up).

[quote=“Belgian Pie”]Actually your formula should look more like this …

Just a sample …

Parameters

* Population mean = μ = ( Σ Xi ) / N
* Population standard deviation = σ = sqrt [ Σ ( Xi - μ )2 / N ]
* Population variance = σ2 = Σ ( Xi - μ )2 / N
* Variance of population proportion = σP2 = PQ / n
* Standardized score = Z = (X - μ) / N
* Population correlation coefficient = ρ = [ 1 / N ] * Σ { [ (Xi - μX) / σx ] * [ (Yi - μY) / σy ] }[/quote]

You know two girls who meet the requirements, including that they be single and available, and one is yours?

It’s all very well people criticising my formula, but I’m pretty sure the basic logic is sound. I don’t see how someone can be single and available, and ‘yours’ at the same time.

Ah… wait. This is one of those Taiwanese things, isn’t it? Like the girl I dated one time who turned out to have two other guys on the go. She can be yours, but still available because she’s NFT - Normal For Taiwan.

Actually, I’m looking for the non-normal ones. Available without someone else in tow.

So, can anyone give me a better estimate of the numbers in this or any particular category? Or explain what the hell BP is on about?

The one is single – unmarried – for now. Available? Until 9/21. Or so she says. I just ain’t sharing her email, so there. :raspberry:

As for the other, I may put her onto this thread.

You also have to rule out the ones with pointy knees. You have to have some standards.

I’d propose a simpler formula, something along the lines of:

[i]a/i=θ(BHL)

Where:
x is the amount of time you’ve spent composing and monitoring this thread
a is the total amount of time you’ve spent composing and monitoring similar threads over the last couple of years
θ is a direct variable modifying, quantitatively,
BHL, which represents your own personal degree of BoneHeaded Loserosity

You spelt looserosity wrong, knucklehead.

In all relative seriousness, your formula contains no brackets hence I assume that every factor is a percentage of the remainder, not the initial number at P.

That means that you’re not taking into account any correlations that may exist between the factors. I’d say, for example, that once someone has passed the interest, goes outside, and can do criteria, they are extremely unlikely to be mobile phone-junkies. Hence, the 20% there seems unfair.

You either need some brackets or scale the percentages in order, the further you get down the formula

That’s how I figured it. But you’re right about the correlations too, and that’s what’s troubling me.

I cut out the “do I find this person attractive” bit for that reason. I figure that I’m just not going to get the hots for some docile old cow jabbering on her mobile as she slouches through the night market looking for cheap crap that she doesn’t need. No matter how big her boobies are.

Are the ones that go outside also the ones that are energetic? I’m guessing they may be, but a lot of people prefer the gym to the beach so I’m not sure. Maybe you could increase the %age on that one by quite a lot and still be safe?

Can do attitude and outside interests go together? Was I being pessimistic before?

I know a girl who will sit in the sun on a boat, confident that she ‘can do’, with her phone in her hand in case there should be some sudden emergency that requires her immediate attention. I’m not sure that there’s any easy way to eliminate that one.

And Josephus, I hate to be rude, but I said “single and available”. If someone is in a relationship or leaving the country in a short time then they don’t meet the criteria. As I said “I know some stunningly sexy women. Some of them are single. I know some cool and interesting people too. And some of them are single. I even know people who are smart, vivacious, energetic, healthy, positive, curious about everything, etc. But I don’t know any reasonably presentable single women who are interesting, energetic, smart, and otherwise able to hold my attention for long.”

I added the bold for emphasis. I know that these people exist, or rather, I choose to believe that they exist and am trying to figure out how many of them there are. Single ones, that is.

And “Would give me the time of day” is a totally different question, which belongs in D&R. But, FYI, whoever it was, most girls in TW are in awe of my physique, my intellect, my pheromones, and the fact that I’m a transvestite. Being a lesbian trapped in a man’s body means that you appeal to just about everyone. :raspberry:

[quote=“Loretta”]And Josephus, I hate to be rude, but I said “single and available”. If someone is in a relationship or leaving the country in a short time then they don’t meet the criteria. [/quote]1. If you hate to be rude, don’t be.
2. Ja-bo-ney. Jaboney. Josephus was a 1C Jewish historian. Josefus posts on f.com, but not (yet) in this thread.
3. “Two, and one’s mine,” was meant to poke fun at your equation, which was fixed from the get go to produce the answer you wanted… like the old joke on getting time off from work.
4. I also wrote, “As for the other, I may put her onto this thread.” I did. Factoring bitter and rude comments, you may be well advised to amend your equation: N = P x F x A x S x E x I x O x C x F x M x T [color=black]-1[/color]. :s I suppose it doesn’t matter much if you’re trying to figure out how many of these attractive single women there are, rather than meet one.

I love to be rude. Loretta, you’re a fanny.

Ooops. When in doubt, ask Buttercup her opinion. Sorry.

I guess honestly I like being rude, and then hate myself afterwards for it. But I don’t like being rude to people I know, so I’ll try harder to remember your name.

Jaboney. Jaboney. Jaboney. Got it. The guy with the girlfriend.

I wasn’t actually trying to be rude, I just couldn’t see what was funny. Still can’t, to be honest.
Q: How many single women in Taipei?
A: I’ve got one.

Nope. don’t get it. I guess humour has evolved since the old days. Don’t know the joke about getting time off work either, and the equation wasn’t fixed. Well, not at first.

I put my original estimates in, and ended up with a number like 0.0004, so I tweaked them upwards to try and get “at least 1”, but I’m genuinely starting to believe that it’s never going to be more than that. I would much rather get an answer like “if you adjust this factor based on this evidence there are 9740 suitable people and all you have to figure out is a)where they are and b) how to make them like a crotchety old git like you.” Or, as Ah Q so helpfully contributed, observations on the quality of the calculation and suggestions for improving it.

As for “bitter and rude” - Taiwanese women appear to be universally childish, boring, unadventurous, lazy, dominated by their families, prone to making excuses, always late, and unable to focus on the people they are with if someone they spoke to twenty minutes ago decides to phone. The D&R forum is full of people making these observations, but despite the claims of the majority and the appearances given I still started this thread by recognising the positive qualities that many individuals possess.

The purpose of the thread is try and get a handle on the real number of actual people who don’t fit the above description. I can’t find any, except for the ones who are already in relationships, and my best estimate is that there aren’t any, but I still live in hope.

So instead of saying “I’ve got one”, why not stop assuming that I’m some bitter old git who hates Taiwanese people and is determined to prove that there aren’t any decent ones, and give me some meaningful evidence that all the whingeing arseholes in the D&R forum are wrong and that I’m right in saying that at least some TWese people are "smart, vivacious, energetic, healthy, positive, curious about everything, etc. " like I said? Numbers, man. Numbers! A sample of one is not enough to enable conclusions about an entire population.

If I sound less than pleased with some of the responses to this thread it’s because the majority of the responses have been “poking fun” as you so quaintly put it. Serious question, treated in a slightly light-hearted manner. You can respond in kind, or more seriously, or not at all, or you can just take the piss out of me for asking the question. You chose the last option. Exasperation ensues. Bitterness directed at the small-mindedness of the responses, not the people of this island on which I live. Make of that what you will.

And FYI, no, I’m not lacking in female company. I’m just not excited by the opportunities in front of me, and looking around I don’t see any better alternatives to aspire to. Maybe the problem is simply that I set the bar higher than most people? My definitions of smart, energetic, adventurous, etc may be more demanding than everyone else’s. I dunno. Maybe that’s a good place to start?

Loretta, the woman you are looking for doesn’t exist. The old cliches are the best. You gotta change yourself before anything else can happen.
Personally I liked the American girl you were dating. She was good for you.