Need a mathematician, statistician, for SETI

Life Dating & Relationships
21

Rubbish. There must be thousands of cool, smart, adventurous, independent, emotionally secure women in Taiwan. I remain convinced of this, despite several years of evidence to the contrary. In an effort to buttress my failing enthusiasm I tried to calculate how many there should be, and was dismally disappointed with the result.

It’s obvious to anyone with half a brain that I’m mathematically incompetent. The fault therefore must lie with my calculations, not with the Formosan Femininity. So will someone please straighten things out to avoid the unavoidable shame of letting TomHill be right in one of my threads?

22

I quite like being me. Are you saying I should settle for less than I want?

Sorry, but I’m a hopeless romantic and I still believe that the required qualities can be found in abundance within an hour of my home.

23

The time off joke, from Reader’s Digest.

[quote]Employee: Boss, can I have the day off tomorrow?

Boss: So you want a day off. Let’s take a look at what you are asking for: There are 365 days per year available for work. There are 52 weeks per year in which you already have 2 days off per week, leaving 261 days available for work. Since you spend 16 hours each day away from work, you have used up 170 days, leaving only 91 days available. You spend 30 minutes each day on coffee break, which accounts for 23 days each year, leaving only 68 days available. With a 1 hour lunch each day, you used up another 46 days, leaving only 22 days available for work. You normally spend 2 days per year on sick leave. This leaves you only 20 days per year available for work. We are off 5 holidays per year, so your available working time is down to 15 days. We generously give 14 days vacation per year which leaves only 1 day available for work and I’ll be damned if you are going to take that day off![/quote]

Yes, the Drake equation is something else, but much the same. Given that your equation was jimmied to produce the result “1”, I figured it had to be a joke. If you’re serious that there’s not more than one woman in the million-odd available lasses within a one-hour radius, well… I guess the joke’s on you. But I don’t believe that’s true, and now I see neither do you.

I did think of one very interesting, intelligent, active, attractive, possibly available woman. I did put her on to your thread. Sorry, she wasn’t impressed.

More helpfully, she is a certified mathematician. She informs me that your equation is skewed. You’ve left out “L”, the length of time your fine ladies will signal their availability. She advises you to clear the cobwebs and dross – anything that will interfere in receiving the signal – and steer clear of pubs, bars and clubs as these pump out a lot of noise, scramble the signal, and produce an L-factor with an N-result equal to zero.

24

I don’t see where Loretta was insulting, but then I know him and understand his sharp wit for what it is. He’s really quite a lamb in person.

To echo what TomHill has written, I think that it would be wise for Loretta to remember the adage that you don’t so much get what you want in life as what you believe you will get. That doesn’t mean you’ll get it right away, or ever, but you certainly WON’T get it if you’re convinced that what you seek doesn’t exist. Openness to possibilities and a focus on your internal process rather than the external results usually yields some very nice rewards. Loretta, you do that in your work life, and reap great benefits from it. Why not in your personal life?

I think advancing middle age might also play a role. Loretta is quite a few years younger than I am by most reckonings, but he’s close enough to middle age to feel a sense of urgency about things like finding a suitable partner and cutting out most of the bullshit that occupies our lives to little benefit. I’m speaking from experience (40 fucking years old in four months. Jesus, I still feel like I’m 28, but fewer and fewer of the people around me can recall the Betamax/VHS debate). Middle age makes you less tolerant of some things, which can be good if you remember not to burden yourself with negative judgment about what isn’t perfect in your life or in the people around you.

Sorry, bit of a rant there. Hope something I wrote was helpful. I could always be that you’re just too damned good of a catch to find someone suitable. Or, you need to arrange a berth on a freighter out of JiLong.

25

I quite like being me. Are you saying I should settle for less than I want?

Sorry, but I’m a hopeless romantic and I still believe that the required qualities can be found in abundance within an hour of my home.[/quote]
If any of these guys really found the girl for you, they’d keep her.

26

Which one? I assume you mean the last one. I liked her too, and the one before that. Why is it that my ‘real’ girlfriends in Taiwan have always been Americans? Most people think I don’t even like Americans. This is the issue I’m trying to resolve.

Perfect (or near-perfect) partners exist. Some people here have found them by shopping locally, but I’ve always had to import. And then they go home. Since it has been demonstrated that these people exist the next question is “how many of them are there?” That’s what I’m trying to ascertain. Surely there are more perfect Taiwanese people in Taiwan than there are perfect Americans?

Or have they all been snapped-up and I have to kill Jaboney and steal his? It can’t be. There must be more.

Start again, closer to the beginning of the equation: What percentage of women in a given age range could be considered “available”? (In general terms - not specifically for me.)

27

Thanks for that. I think we now understand each other. But we’ll have to agree to disagree about what constitutes “smart”.

She wasn’t impressed by the quality of my science? Well, I’m not a scientist. That’s why the title of the thread states clearly that I need a mathematician. On the bright side, I didn’t start this thread to try and meet anybody so it doesn’t matter that I didn’t meet anyone. I started the thread to ascertain whether there is anyone in Taiwan that I actually would want to meet for purposes other than casual socialising or business, if the opportunity came up. So far I haven’t received any help on that score.

This is promising. Scientific rigour could settle the issue once and for all: am I deluding myself or are there in fact any decent women in this country? Numbers, great!

Er, which “fine ladies” are we referring to? Despite my earnest desire to be wrong, I am starting to believe that there aren’t any. If and when we have determined the existence of people that I actually want to communicate with we can address the issue of how to maximise the communication, but at the moment it appears that the negative reviews of Taiwanese women are the accurate ones. As I said originally:

In the absence of any better analysis, I’m left with the conclusion that there aren’t any fine women in Taiwan. I was hoping that a mathematician could provide such an analysis, or at least some useful pointers, but your “smart” friend seems to have taken the existence of these unproven entities as a given and instead addressed what she perceives as my failings. OK, so I’m doing everything wrong. I’m not going to change anything until someone can demonstrate that there is more than one girl within an hour’s travel of my home worth making the effort to meet. Would someone kindly address that question?

Your “smart” friend is not actually addressing my question at all. She appears to be addressing her own topic. So much for scientific rigour. Not what I call smart either.

What makes her think I need this advice? What does my personal behaviour have to do with the existence or otherwise of a population that I don’t have any contact with? Forgive me for being sensitive here, but this appears to be a case of “I don’t like what you say, so you must be wrong, so you need to change, even though I don’t know anything about you.”

I’m sorry, but the above comments do not have anything to do with an analysis of the problem presented. They are irrational justifications put forward by someone who is offended that I don’t think she - and all other Taiwanese women - are goddesses. “She wasn’t impressed” sounds very much like “you offended her over-inflated but insecure self-image”. I can’t say I’ll lose any sleep over crossing another useless local lass off my list. As someone else said in another thread: [url=Why are Westerners such fools for Taiwanese girls? - #18 by TheLostSwede also think a lot of Taiwanese girls have too high expectations a lot of the time, like out of this world kind of expectations. They don’t seem to understand that if they want a guy like that, they have to meet his expectations as well, which I think a lot of them have no intention of ever doing.[/url]

The only speck of light on the otherwise gloomy horizon is that the above was written in a thread containing several examples of positive outcomes. These people do exist. So how many of them are there? This is the question.

28

[quote=“Loretta”]
Ooops. When in doubt, ask Buttercup her opinion. Sorry.[/quote]

Any time. You don’t have to ask.

Lola, you, as ever, think like a teenage girl. Spend your days having fun and the top clunge will follow.

29

Wait, what?

30

Thanks for that. I think we now understand each other. But we’ll have to agree to disagree about what constitutes “smart”.[/quote]Yeah? Why’s that?

She wasn’t impressed by the quality of my science? Well, I’m not a scientist.[/quote]
Not science. Attitude. Seeing as we’ve never actually met and I can’t, on my own, conjure up a voice and persona to shape and charm your prose, I’m forced to read things from much the same perspective. A failure of imagination on my part, no doubt. But something to take into consideration as you begin to weigh the “L” factor; you don’t want to miss your window because you’re giving off too much static.

[quote=“Loretta”]Er, which “fine ladies” are we referring to? Despite my earnest desire to be wrong, I am starting to believe that there aren’t any. If and when we have determined the existence of people that I actually want to communicate with we can address the issue of how to maximise the communication, but at the moment it appears that the negative reviews of Taiwanese women are the accurate ones…bzzzbzzzbzzzbzzzbzzz[/quote]Sorry… lost the rest in the sound and fury; signifies nothing.

Brendon: what, what?

31

[quote=“Jaboney”]Not science. Attitude. … But something to take into consideration as you begin to weigh the “L” factor; you don’t want to miss your window because you’re giving off too much static.
…

Sorry… lost the rest in the sound and fury; signifies nothing.[/quote]

OK. Thanks. You obviously don’t get it. Don’t worry about it. It’s not your problem. I can take it from here.

Enjoy your life.

Anyone else out there care to contribute? Don’t talk about me. Tell me what percentage of Taiwanese women can have a dinner date without taking 27 phone calls. What percentage of Taiwanese women don’t avoid the sun at all costs? Etc. And, more importantly in the absence of a decent mathematician, how do the various groups overlap or inter-relate? ie are the ones who are rarely late also the ones who have a can-do attitude? Are the ones who constantly make excuses also the ones who stand still on the escalators? I’m pretty sure my calculation is skewed, I’m just not getting a lot of constructive advice on how.

32

The what? I don’t believe there is any top anything, there’s just a morass.

WILL PEOPLE STOP TELLING ME WHAT I HAVE TO DO TO ATTRACT PEOPLE WHOSE EXISTENCE IS IN SUCH DOUBT. PROVE THEY EXIST, OR AT LEAST THAT THEY PROBABLY DO.

33

I sympathize. I am having a hell of a time finding a decent Batgirl.
It’s supply and demand. When you are as awesome as Batman, then finding someone of equal awesomitudity is nigh onto impossible. I’ve searched the rafters high and low.

34

[quote=“Dr. McCoy”]I sympathize. I am having a hell of a time finding a decent Batgirl.
It’s supply and demand. When you are as awesome as Batman, then finding someone of equal awesomitudity is nigh onto impossible. I’ve searched the rafters high and low.[/quote]

Your problem, Darknight Detective, is that you’re in Taiwan.
The Police Commissioner’s daughter isn’t even in the country, she’s studying overseas at some pricey but academically shabby university, paid for by thousands and thousands of red envelopes.
This, you just ain’t going to see:
*
Sidekick-wise, you’re just going to have to wait for the circus to come to town so the local gangsters can murder the Flying Graysons…

Yikes! Nice nuts, Babs!

ETA: Oh, and for the OP, here you go:

http://www.forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?t=71708&highlight=

Come on, Sparky, let’s go, readies up front never hurt no-one.
Surely you aren’t going to tell us you’re just another Taiwanese mook who wants summit but doesn’t want to pay for it, are you??

35

The what? I don’t believe there is any top anything, there’s just a morass.

WILL PEOPLE STOP TELLING ME WHAT I have TO DO TO ATTRACT PEOPLE WHOSE EXISTENCE IS IN SUCH DOUBT. PROVE THEY EXIST, OR AT LEAST THAT THEY PROBABLY DO.[/quote]

Ok, let’s put some numbers through. Here’s what I would do to your equation, not changing any of the factors as they’re yours to choose according to what you find important.

N = P * F * A * S * E * I * O * C * F * M * T

P = population, which I’m going to put at 23,000,000 because if you want perfection you need to work for it. So we’re taking all of Taiwan. Plus, with the high speed rail, nothing is really much further than an hour away, especially if you live in Taizhong.

F = the percentage that are female, which according to the CIA world factbook is 1.02 males / female in the applicable age range. Hence, 48%

A = within an acceptable age range. Life expectancy is 75 years for males but it is 81 years for wimmin. That’s 1.23% for every year. 30 * 1.23 = 37%. If you want, you can further tweak this number taking into account the aging population (wimmin median age is, remarkably, approx. 37)

S = single and available. Teens only make up a very small part of your acceptable age range, so you don’t really need to care about their availability. Also, a small percentage might be willing to break up their current relationship in order to be with you. Finally, this is kind of a fluctuating factor since people move in and out of availability all the time. I’d put it at 30%.

E = energetic. Using the escalator benchmark, yeah I’d say about 10% of the people on an escalator at any time are walking. However, I have been paying attention to it today and most of the walkers are women in the accepted age range. Based on that, I’m putting the percentage up to 20%. Remember that all the men, seniors, and children have already dropped out at this point, so we can’t count those in the escalator theorem.

I = interests. Ok, this variable is dependant on what you are willing to accept as good interests, so I’ll leave it at 20%.

O = goes outside. I’m going to link this one to energetic in the formula. If they walk on the escalator, they’re more likely to enjoy outdoors activities. Your 10% becomes a 30%

C = can do. This one is both linked to O * E and I, since in order to actively pursue any hobbies or interests, you kind of need a can do attitude, especially if outdoor activities or sports are concerned. These are no couch potatoes. Up it to a whopping 50%, and this part of the formula becomes (I*(E*O))*C. Not that it changes the outcome like this, but just so that it’s clear which factors influence which.

F = family not getting in the way. I don’t think this one needs to be included, since it’s not exactly pre-determined and might depend on you, her, which stage of the relationship you are in, etc. You put it at 100%, might as well take it out.

M = mobile phone doesn’t rule your life. Assuming that you are right in there being no correlations with this one, I still think 20% is a bit heavy since distribution is not equal among the entire age range. The younger, the more likely they are to fall off in this category. Overall? I’d say more like 30%

T = aware of time. Of the remaining women, your formula says 90% will be late regularly. That’s harsh! I’m going to say 40%, and that’s still negotiable.

The formula then becomes:

N = P * F * A * S * (((E * O) * I) * C) * M * T

Put in the numbers and you get: 1,225,440 available women, of which 882 potential future ms. Lorettas!

That ought to cheer you up a bit

36

[quote=“Ah Q”]882 potential future ms. Lorettas!

That ought to cheer you up a bit[/quote]

How can I possibly be cheerful, with Buttercup sending me text messages comparing me to a chimp? But thanks.

882? On the whole island? What does that work out at per square kilometre? If I take out the ugly ones I’m not left with a lot, and that’s before combining your result with the infamous W to find out how many of these people would actually give me the time of day.

Still, it’s a start. And, as you pointed out, some of the terms are a bit dodgy. I had a good chat about this with the drug-dealer class last night and they proposed some modifications. (They also came up with N = 36, which is not good.)

Imagine some girly standing on the escalator. She may have all sorts of reasons for not walking. Sometimes I don’t feel like it either. But I push myself because I have decided that I should avoid becoming a slug. But that’s about it. I haven’t exercised for weeks, so who am I to criticise someone else for scoring a point or two below me on the energy scale when I’m close to the bottom myself?

What she does with her own life is really her business. The issue is, if she was with me would she do things my way or would I have to abandon the last vestiges of the illusion that I’m going to keep in shape? Would she march cheerfully up the stairs with me, or would she insist I become even more lazy? Or would she remind me that I haven’t been swimming yet this week, and encourage me to make time to do so like I’m always going to? Would she say “It’s great that you take this seriously and it motivates me to come with you, or take yoga classes, or do something?”

I think this puts a whole different complexion on things. It gets to the root, rather than focusing on the symptom. It’s a positive approach that focuses on potentials rather than immediate appearances.

Soooo, should we forcus on:
V - values that we share, and
C - can do

One defines what’s important and the other defines how much weight we give to the things that are important.

C is pretty easy to define: has a belief in the principle that we can make positive change in our lives and achieve our goals, and doesn’t make excuses. This can be further softened by accepting that this quality may not always be present right away, but exists in a latent form that can be activated by exposure to someone with a high C quotient. Unfortunately I have a pretty low threshold for dealing with people who constantly tell me why they can’t do something, but I still think this is a more reasonable approach.

V is a bit trickier: the old E then becomes a sub-factor (can you say that?) that reads “believes it’s important to maintain a certain level of fitness and energy”, but there are other values to consider too. The old O could better be defined as an appreciation of nature, another sub-factor. I’ll think more about these, and try to differentiate between values and interests. I guess you could look at it as “if I were a dedicated member of a particular religion I would seek someone with the same faith and commitment,” it’s about the really really important stuff that you wouldn’t want to compromise on. The question is how do you do the math on this? Each individual value is extremely important, but you might accept a degree of difference in opinion.

Say you give each of the sub-factors a nominal “value” in my mind of 100. If the other person gives any of those values a “value” of less than, say, 80 then you’re probably not compatible. Or if the average value the other assigns to your basket of sub-factors is less than, say, 90 then you may not be compatible. In other words, you need to be a little bit flexible while still insisting on a high degree of basic compatibility. Shades of grey, or light black at the very least.

Suggestions?

37

So that’s O, E and C replaced with C and V. With V being calculated according to some formula.

I is tricky. As someone pointed out to me, if you both have exactly the same interests then you’re just looking at a mirror of yourself. But if you have nothing in common at all then how are you going to spend quality time together?

So I think “I” needs to be some combination of:
common interest(s)
outside interests

But is common interests a sub-field of outside interests?

And there’s the question of “would be interested in the same thing as you given the opportunity” - for instance I like sailing. Hardly anyone is interested in sailing, because it’s outside of their awareness. But given the opportunity to learn more, some people would be interested.

And the flip side, courtesy of the drug-dealers again, is that apparently Taiwanese women believe they are expected to share their man’s interests. So it’s possible that a potential other would exclude herself by choice in the belief that she would be expected to spend her weekends battling typhoons and giant squid while cooking for a crew of hungry foreigners. In fact, she could be happily practising her flamenco dancing with her friends while I’m mucking about on boats, as long as she’s available to tell me all about her new alternative energy project over dinner.

I’m a bit muddled about this one.

38

Mobile phones and being late are related. There’s a culture of immediacy, never planning ahead, that goes with excessive phone usage. I have to answer this call now because it’s happening now, it can’t wait. I can be late because I can call ahead, and anyway, the other person will probably be talking to someone who isn’t there when I arrive.

The mother calling the 30-yo girl at 10pm to see why she isn’t home is part of the same problem.

I think insecurity plays a big part of it. People need reassurance, and the phone is an umbilical cord. Try asking someone to turn it off at night, and see what response you get.

Need to get this one figured out before I can proceed. The ‘symptoms’ are not the thing to measure. You have to figure out what’s causing them before you can make progress.

39

Oh yeah, and the drug-dealers reckon that communication is the key to any relationship. I’ve seen lots of posts about SOs that don’t say what they really think, leading to disaster.

I think that has to be added to the calculation, but it’s related to insecurity.

More tomorrow.