Well, except there are US ships, with allies, transiting the Taiwan Straits regularly. Encircling Taiwan means blocking waterways between Taiwan and Japan and Taiwan and the Phils, both countries with US bases
You’re right, but at the present time they still rely on customers in the west. Maybe in the future sanctions won’t affect them, but when and if?
True, but if the entrance to your MRT collapses you can likely travel underground to another one. Can’t do that if you’re in the basement of a building that’s bombed.
Price!
Russia and China are ‘self destructive’ governments.
Absolutely, China’s mindset is long term, but Xi also wants his name in the history books and only has another 10-20 years on his clock, so he willing to sacrifice long term strategy as long as Taiwan is annexed under his rule so he can claim all the glory.
You’re not thinking long term. In the long-term economies can rebuild. Japan did, Germany did - and they’re just the ones who were on the losing side!
So, are you saying China will accept US bases on their turf like Japan and Germany?
The smackdown that the PLA and the Chinese Communist Party would receive would be swift and absolutely humiliating. Even China’s adversaries would feel kinda bad at how embarrassing it would be for China. In the aftermath China would be split into different countries - One China Policy? History loves Irony!
If China invades Taiwan, there is no China in the long term. The China of today would be split into 28 countries.
China is very unified except areas like Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia. But even those places the natives have become minorities. China has 4,000 years of history and a deep pride for historical unity. Even if CCP failed to exist, the people still support concept of China.
Look at Russia now… After a year no area has separated from Russia. And it’s only a year because the west is able to resupply Ukraine constantly. If not resupplied, it would have only been a waiting game until fallen. China is more self sustaining. They have decades of experience on self isolation and sustainment.
Maybe, but all actual professional groups suggest a pyrrhic victory. I’d love to think it would be a cakewalk, but the odds are they will be able to put up a decent fight. No sense ending up like the Russians towards the Japanese… Or, more recently, the Ukrainians 
(https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html
Etc. There are plenty of articles attacking specific areas of Chinese supposed progress/dominance, but I’ve yet to see one actual professional advisory group would suggest that it’s going to be anywhere as easy as you say)
Yeah on what basis? Lmao. You’re edging rather hard rn. How the hell would that play out? “We defeated you in a war! We now demand you fall apart!” Lmao
Yeah right. Now there might be significant political motivation towards XYorZ but why the fuck would china willingly balkanize themselves over that? The patriotism for a united china isn’t gonna disappear just because they lost 
Money.
Except when those pesky Mongols walked through their great wall or the 1938 Yellow river flood. More of a “We love you but -” gesture of unity.
This is so far detached from reality. Chinese people as a whole are extremely unified today in the idea of China as a unified country.
The US on other hand has more likelyhood of states splitting off if federal government where to ever completely fail and even then it’s unlikely.
But back to point of this thread… I’m not hearing of any news of air defense signs being printed and put up all over China right now…
Awful examples. The former led to a ton of the officials and population fleeing to the south to try and organize further resistance via the Southern Song, and the latter was aimed at stopping the Japanese from going all the way to the capital. Both have nothing to do with a willingness to be split. And the Mongol point is particularly silly as it comes from a basis of the idea of China only existing under Han rule; while the Han didn’t necessarily love being under foreign rulers, the concept of a united China possessing the mandate totally did exist. Not to mention it poses the Chinese as surrender monkies against what was undoubtedly a force of nature of an army.
And then look to the periods where China was notably not united for a more prolonged period of time. So, 6 kingdoms, North and South Dynasties, 16 kingdoms, 10 kingdoms 5 dynasties, and most recently, during the warlord era and civil war. The longest of these by far is N. And S. Kingdoms, and they’re notable for making modern China the monolith it is with the migration and sinicization of much of the south. And like always, both sides laid claim to the others title. And, after this, when the unifying dynasty fell pretty quickly after being established, there wasn’t some huge gap of divided time again. And it’s really not uncommon that the whole state would transfer to another one in almost it’s entirety. From the Yuan onwards, basically, it would be the fall of one and the rise of another with minimal fracturing and, generally, even growth. (With the notable exception of Yuan, as they also had mongol lands which did not really transfer directly).
So if you really want to tell me that the modern Chinese — not the Chinese in the height of their historical glory as the dominant central kingdom, but the post Century of Humiliation China — would for a second entertain the notion of splitting up, you’re playing yourself. Regime change is more likely than that, and that’s extremely unlikely as well.
Completely attached to reality, we must be extremely aware of the severity of the situation. China does not get to be a country anymore if they invade Taiwan - this is a very simple and very effective concept to understand. There is simply no path forward for all of the current provinces of China to continue to be unified under a central government - if they invade Taiwan. China will be completely dismantled if they launch WWIII, which is exactly what an invasion of Taiwan would be — there will be no opportunity for China to return to its present communist dictatorship. This would end up being a very good thing for the actual citizens of the Former People’s Republic of China as they break into transparent governance, new economic models, new spin of market competition in Asia, and opportunities for trade as well as breathe new life into regions where minorities have been systematically oppressed or genocided, and “low tier” cities are freed of the restrictions placed on them before.
Lol, tell that to Russia.
I feel like even ChatGPT would be better informed than your response.
Your aim is off.
“Former People’s Republic of China” is the reality facing China if they invade.
Russia is gone at this point. Putin is likely a Beijing puppet hired by Beijing long ago after the fall of the USSR. Him along with other ex-KGB looking for new employers were snapped up by China to infiltrate the newly established Russian government and ensure Russia never became a threat to China again after the collapse of the Soviet Union – Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin did not want to have to faceoff against the United States at the same time as having a potential Russian foe that might ally with the West , so they did everything they could to compromise Russia early on when it seemed Russia might actually turn to the West. What we have witnessed is Russia using its military over the course of decades as a Chinese Mercenary Army to conduct invasions and landgrabs which usually end up benefiting China much more than they benefit Russia. Do you think Russia is in a better position now after the Ukraine invasion started? No. Putin always talks about restoring Russia’s glory - but his actions never do that. Maybe Putin himself though he was in command of his own country for a period, but definitely not anymore. But China benefits from it in many ways even if its a quagmire simply by having its adversaries preoccupied. Before COVID, the Russian government formerly resigned and Putin completed the final stage of transitioning power from Moscow to Beijing. Does this sound crazy? Its actually not, and was even discussed by the former Japanese Prime Minister at the United Nations in the early 1990’s (its on CSPAN archives somewhere) as the world shifted focus onto Beijing when the Berlin Wall came down.
Sorry to interrupt but that is an interesting point: what a post Taiwan invasion and conquest/destruction would look like.
Too many Twitter “,lefties” blame the coming storm on 'US militarism" and in this day and age insist that "unification " can be done peacefully, with China respecting an agreement that preserves Taiwan democracy under ,one country two systems. Such a mountain of manure.
I think about the effects of Taiwan’s downfall in the old country. Imagine
a victorious China spurring the local selfish elites, exporting their version of social control. It would make El Salvador look like kindergarten. If currently the food supply depends on imports, imagine China rampaging freely on the world’s oceans and lands. And the rest of the world subjugated to its tantrums because they depend on it for everything, from power to food meficiy transportation.
Because if China takes Taiwan, it means there is nothing, no international order, to even hold them back. They have been pushing the envelope until there is no limit no more. And the world is complicit because it fed the monster of the factory of the world.
