New Filipino President - Dictator?

The world seems to be embracing anti-establishment candidates. I find the latest election in the Philippines to be very concerning.

edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/asia/ … -election/

[quote]In Davao City, where Duterte has held office for decades, he has long been dogged by allegations of ties to death squads and extrajudicial killings.

He has vowed to execute 100,000 criminals and dump them into Manila Bay. He’s also suggested that he has killed people before.

In April, a YouTube video surfaced appearing to show him joking about the 1989 rape and murder of an Australian missionary in Davao City. He later described it as “gutter language” but refused to apologize.

In his last campaign stump Saturday, Duterte played his role to the hilt and again vowed to butcher criminals as he told thousands in central Manila: “Forget the laws of human rights.”

“If I make it to the presidential palace, I will do just what I did as mayor. You drug pushers, hold-up men and do-nothings, you better go out. Because as the mayor, I’d kill you,” Duterte said to wild cheers from supporters.

He’s threatened to bypass or even shutter Congress, leading to outgoing President Benigno Aquino calling for all the candidates to unite against Duterte, warning of uncertainty and the “specter of dictatorship” if he won.[/quote]

There’s a smallish thread about this on the other place.

The Filipinos embrace Duterte because he’s quintessentially Filipino. He breaks every single one of the ten commandments and then heads off to confession. Life’s like that in Asia’s Most Christian Country. I feel sorry for them in a way; after all, they haven’t had a functioning government in living memory, so they have no idea what a government is or what a President does. Most people there think the President’s job is somewhere between Santa Claus and Batman.

Whether he’ll manage to clean up that benighted hellhole is anybody’s guess. 100,000 won’t do it. He’d better aim for 5 million. Or if even his soiled conscience recoils at that, he’d better come up with an actual plan for fixing the root causes of Philippine dysfunction. You know, like a proper head of state.

Trump is kind of like that, saying all sorts of stupid things to get elected. Kicking out 11 million Mexicans, no visa for Muslims, etc. All equally radical. And yet Trump could well be the next Prez.
So can this guy.

We are going into an age now where the strongman/ dictator is making a comeback. Russia has one already.

A lot of people draw that comparison, but Duterte is nothing like Trump. Trump is not evil; he’s just full of shit. I doubt he would ever actually go through with that “kick out all the Mexicans” nonsense. It’s nasty to listen to, but I’m fairly sure he’s (still) just winding people up. What he doesn’t realise, I think, is that when people are encouraged to start thinking base thoughts, they find it easier to carry out base actions.

Putin is a complete asshole, but he’s at least 50x smarter than Duterte. He’s fascinating to listen to. Wouldn’t want him as my president, but you can see why he’s managed to hold onto power for so long.

Duterte is a whole different ball game. He’s on record saying he’s killed people (or rather, had them killed). He shot some kid at university. He’s threatening to kill all the criminals (which, realistically, would be a third of the population). Now Filipinos are always shooting each other - it’s the standard way of resolving arguments - but you don’t really want someone with that kind of limited problem-solving repertoire in Government. People like that think that if killing a few people doesn’t work, they haven’t killed enough people.

The nuance is this: the Philippines is an enormous slum, full of people who have never known anything except cheating, violence, and scrounging to survive. Hordes of children everywhere with no parents to raise them, because the Catholic Church says that spawning miserable, uneducated, hungry children who will become prostitutes and drug-dealers pleases god, while wearing a condom is a mortal sin. To which one can only ask: “which god?”. There is no education system worth the name, few people have any practical skills, thus the majority are unemployable. Congress contains the biggest collection of criminals outside of a state prison; some of them are actually convicted criminals (and that in a country with no functioning judiciary). We’re talking about crimes like treason, murder, conspiracy, and plunder of state property, not fiddling an expenses claim. How on earth do you solve that? China, in a similar situation, executed quite a number of corrupt officials. If you know the punishment is execution and you carry on being corrupt, it’s your own silly fault; but that sort of scenario illustrates how bad it can get. The trouble with killing people is: how do you know when to stop? It’s better to start with the assumption that the option isn’t even on the table.

I don’t think Putin, Trump, or this Filipino are genuinely anti-establishment. They are just playing the tough guy role to appeal to an angry electorate. There tends to be a 5-10 year cycle between a smooth-talking demagogue (Clinton/Obama) and a take-no-prisoners posturing hard man (Trump/Putin). The types are different enough for people to embrace the change… 18-24 months of honeymoon/euphoria from the voters, then back to apathy/resentment. The new Indian and Indonesian presidents have just finished their honeymoon period. No real difference in either of those countries over the last few years.

True change will never come from the political arena, IMO. Innovative financial technology and innovation is the only way out of here.

HHC, I completely agree; however, because the Philippines is a failed state where violence is accepted and normal, escalation would be easy. It depends how full of himself Duterte actually is, how much of his campaigning is just bluster, and how many people co-operate with his “policies”.

As for innovation and grassroots change, this is impossible. The Law and the state apparatus are designed so that no such thing can ever occur. Opening anything more socially useful than a corner store meets with as much official backlash as Uber faced in New York.

I find it a bit weird that since South China Sea dispute is a big deal in the Philippines, I thought they would have election a president with a tougher stance on China. Instead, they elected Duterte, who doesn’t seem to mind to sell out national interests to China.

Sure Duterte said things like “I’ll ride a jet ski to plant our flag on the islands myself” in early stages of the election, much like Trump’s “I’ll make the Mexicans pay for the wall”, but his newest stance is “I won’t claim those islands belong to the Philippines if you don’t claim those islands belong to China”, essentially Ma Yingjeou’s “diplomatic truce” and we all know how that went.

Between Duterte and Trump, the next decade is looking pretty ugly.

I’m sure it could get worse, no doubt. I just don’t think he’ll make any positive changes. I think he’s with the establishment. I have seen how suffocating local red tape can be in Indonesia. It’s deliberately designed to stifle innovation, and stop anyone getting on the business ladder. Even making a corner shop will rub someone up the wrong way, as you said. I don’t dispute how hard it is, but the existence of sites like these:

thesparkproject.com/
startsomegood.com/csllfi
startsomegood.com/outsmart-pove … -libraries

…shows me that someone is doing something, even if it only affects 0.00001 percent of the population. I don’t think it is impossible, just extremely difficult, and a change will take 50-100 years. At least these new finance platforms exist. They didn’t even exist 10 years ago. So that is a small step in the right direction. Applying those changes locally will probably be very difficult, but at least there is a way forward now…

Anyway, the point is, I realized that all changes in the last 10-15 years came from private industry. I would prefer to put my energy into doing something in technology than watching these buffoons make empty promises. But I agree they need to be watched, in case they do anything worse.

Here’s the rub. It’s NOT a big deal to the average Filipino. In fact, they couldn’t care less about those specks of shit in the SSC. They have no idea what those shoals and reefs represent, nor can they comprehend what it will mean when China starts playing hall monitor in the region. That’s why they brushed off Dutuerte’s stance (or lack thereof). My wife, for instance, agrees with his “fuck it, let them have it” policy. She, and 99% of Filipinos don’t care about anything that isn’t presently knocking at the door.

One of my good friends in Manila said to me, “[Electing Dutuerte] is a deal with the devil, and everybody in the Philippines has account at Satan’s bank.”

The worst thing to happen to the Philippines was their emancipation from U.S. Commonwealth status to full independence in 1946. It’s been nothing but bullshit ever since.

[quote=“HenHaoChi”]I’m sure it could get worse, no doubt. I just don’t think he’ll make any positive changes. I think he’s with the establishment. I have seen how suffocating local red tape can be in Indonesia. It’s deliberately designed to stifle innovation, and stop anyone getting on the business ladder. Even making a corner shop will rub someone up the wrong way, as you said. I don’t dispute how hard it is, but the existence of sites like these:

thesparkproject.com/
startsomegood.com/csllfi
startsomegood.com/outsmart-pove … -libraries

…shows me that someone is doing something, even if it only affects 0.00001 percent of the population. I don’t think it is impossible, just extremely difficult, and a change will take 50-100 years. At least these new finance platforms exist. They didn’t even exist 10 years ago. So that is a small step in the right direction. Applying those changes locally will probably be very difficult, but at least there is a way forward now…

Anyway, the point is, I realized that all changes in the last 10-15 years came from private industry. I would prefer to put my energy into doing something in technology than watching these buffoons make empty promises. But I agree they need to be watched, in case they do anything worse.[/quote]

I disagree with you to an extent. Let’s use the Indonesia and Philippine examples. Both countries have incredibly screwed up (very different but still screwed up) politics and bureaucracy and it will be difficult for any president to significantly alter the course. I see Joko as a fine guy that will at least attempt at pushing things in the right direction. I can’t see how things don’t become significantly worse in the Philippines with Dutuerte running things. His previous actions (death squads) and possible future actions (bypassing congress) are very scary actions for a country with so many problems. I think the best we could hope for was more of the same for the Philippines and this is a step very much in the wrong direction.

For Digong to make any sort of grand, sweeping changes, he’s going to need to survive long enough to make them. There is a very real possibility that he gets taken out, and soon. You don’t fuck around with the Aquinos, Cojuangcos, Sys, Bautistas, etc. I don’t care who you are, the Filipino regard for human life ends at conception. There’s a litany of powerful people he only has to piss off once, and he’s done. In order to live to see 2017, Dutuerte has to be very careful that he doesn’t start cutting off heads, cuz he’ll be next. That means, he’s going to play ball with the power players. At the same time, just because he won the presidency doesn’t mean people like Trillianes are going to stop coming after him.

People voted for Digong because he’s seen as the antithesis of fat cats like Enrile, Estrada, Binay, etc. They falsely believe that he is going to walk in to the palace and start cleaning house. He won’t. He can’t. He’ll make petty, useless gestures like “banning loud karaoke”, which, good fucking luck enforcing that. If you look at the enormity of corruption and dysfunction in the country, as Finley once again so eloquently described, it would take 10,000 Dutuertes just to start the clean up. At least. If you see the institutionalization of corruption as somehow impossible, think again. Nobody is above that shit.

Meanwhile, the trash will continue to pile up. The squatters will continue to squat. Those fuckers on the other side of the wall are going to continue singing Katy Perry songs until midnight at jet decibel volumes.

For Digong to make any sort of grand, sweeping changes, he’s going to need to survive long enough to make them. There is a very real possibility that he gets taken out, and soon. You don’t fuck around with the Aquinos, Cojuangcos, Sys, Bautistas, etc. I don’t care who you are, the Filipino regard for human life ends at conception. There’s a litany of powerful people he only has to piss off once, and he’s done. In order to live to see 2017, Dutuerte has to be very careful that he doesn’t start cutting off heads, cuz he’ll be next. That means, he’s going to play ball with the power players. At the same time, just because he won the presidency doesn’t mean people like Trillianes are going to stop coming after him.

People voted for Digong because he’s seen as the antithesis of fat cats like Enrile, Estrada, Binay, etc. They falsely believe that he is going to walk in to the palace and start cleaning house. He won’t. He can’t. He’ll make petty, useless gestures like “banning loud karaoke”, which, good fucking luck enforcing that. If you look at the enormity of corruption and dysfunction in the country, as Finley once again so eloquently described, it would take 10,000 Dutuertes just to start the clean up. At least. If you see the institutionalization of corruption as somehow impossible, think again. Nobody is above that shit.

Meanwhile, the trash will continue to pile up. The squatters will continue to squat. Those fuckers on the other side of the wall are going to continue singing Katy Perry songs until midnight at jet decibel volumes.[/quote]

Through a system with a blown left tweeter.

For Digong to make any sort of grand, sweeping changes, he’s going to need to survive long enough to make them. There is a very real possibility that he gets taken out, and soon. You don’t fuck around with the Aquinos, Cojuangcos, Sys, Bautistas, etc. I don’t care who you are, the Filipino regard for human life ends at conception. There’s a litany of powerful people he only has to piss off once, and he’s done. In order to live to see 2017, Dutuerte has to be very careful that he doesn’t start cutting off heads, cuz he’ll be next. That means, he’s going to play ball with the power players. At the same time, just because he won the presidency doesn’t mean people like Trillianes are going to stop coming after him.

People voted for Digong because he’s seen as the antithesis of fat cats like Enrile, Estrada, Binay, etc. They falsely believe that he is going to walk in to the palace and start cleaning house. He won’t. He can’t. He’ll make petty, useless gestures like “banning loud karaoke”, which, good fucking luck enforcing that. If you look at the enormity of corruption and dysfunction in the country, as Finley once again so eloquently described, it would take 10,000 Dutuertes just to start the clean up. At least. If you see the institutionalization of corruption as somehow impossible, think again. Nobody is above that shit.

Meanwhile, the trash will continue to pile up. The squatters will continue to squat. Those fuckers on the other side of the wall are going to continue singing Katy Perry songs until midnight at jet decibel volumes.[/quote]

I don’t expect him to clean things up. I mentioned something about things going very much in the wrong direction. If they assassinate him then things get even more screwed up for the Philippines.

Indeed. The Lord of the Flies is very much in charge, and they like it that way.

Frankly, I don’t think They will bother to assassinate him because (a) at 70, the grim reaper will carry him off soon enough and (b) he knows which side his bread is buttered. Although he’s viewed as an outsider by the great unwashed, he’s very much part of the machinery (as was his father before him). You don’t get anywhere in politics if you’re not. I fully expect some trivial clampdowns, pour encourager les autres, and possibly some persecution of scapegoats, but the basic scenery will remain the same.

Eh bien… regarde qui parle francais!

哇 … 胡謅亂說高手來貢獻智慧

The local bourse seems to be responding well.

Indeed. The Lord of the Flies is very much in charge, and they like it that way.

Frankly, I don’t think They will bother to assassinate him because (a) at 70, the grim reaper will carry him off soon enough and (b) he knows which side his bread is buttered. Although he’s viewed as an outsider by the great unwashed, he’s very much part of the machinery (as was his father before him). You don’t get anywhere in politics if you’re not. I fully expect some trivial clampdowns, pour encourager les autres, and possibly some persecution of scapegoats, but the basic scenery will remain the same.[/quote]

I’m a hard-boiled cynic but maybe there’s a cult of personality thing happening with this guy that reminds me
a tiny little bit
of Ninoy, and not in a good way, but wouldn’t it be convenient to make a martyr of him at some stage of the charade?

Yes, you’re right and I’m pushing the envelope of potential. It’s a helter skelter of Why Bother? and Why Not? Lots of cats have nothing to lose. However, Manila isn’t Davao. Unless he’s planning on running the show from down south, it would be foolish for him to ride around town on his scooter like a big boss. At the same time, the cops and military can be positioned like Call of Duty characters. Now he’s gotta worry about those cats, and who is paying who? I dunno. It was just something I heard from a fairly informed and generally reliable local (of pure Spanish decent). He said it was something to think about, and certainly, he was trying to ameliorate some of my anxiety. It was later echoed by people in my family, not that they have any idea what they’re talking about.

I happened to be home a couple of weeks ago when he made the rape comment, refused to back down from it, and all that nonsense, during which time I never heard a voice of outrage. Even my wife was like, “Oh, he was just joking.” I said, “There are few things in life you can’t joke about, but the rape and murder of a human being is absolutely one of them. It’s number one with a fucking bullet.” Not only that, but think of the kind of guy who actually has that train of thought. There’s no doubt in my mind that Dutuerte thought he should have “gone first.” And I swear to God, I thought I was going to lose my motherfucking mind. I still do. I mean, I’m numb, so I’m not really sure what’s happening up there.

I noticed, and predicted it about a week ago, in private, to my wife, so it doesn’t count.

Ah … I never thought of that. He seems like the sort who might even play along, if the time was right, and if he thought his clan would benefit in some way.

Yeah, that bit didn’t surprise me much. After all, this is a country where animals are killed for amusement value, and a bolo or a gun is a valid negotiating tool. My observation is that many Filipinos (painting with a very broad brush here) have a limited range of emotional responses and a malfunctioning theory of mind. It’s not so much that life is cheap in the Philippines; I get the disturbing impression they don’t see life (other than their own) as life. They don’t grok the concept of other living beings. I try not to dwell on that too much.