I don’t know what this China-Russia Axis of today is supposed to be - one is barely socialist anymore, and they are as much rivals and direct competitors than allies. And where the Philippines fits in… well, it’s doesn’t. Anywhere in there.
I am curious about the US$13B in deals. I hope a good chunk is Philippine companies expanding in China. Like Robinson’s or something. I might be able to get job in one and make that my way back to Shanghai
Should be interesting for Taiwan’s navy facing Soviet equipped Phil Navy then?
I don’t think so. For one thing, Taiwan’s position on the whole area is parallel to China’s. And not only has the Philippine military complex been designed to pacify the local population (the largest and best funded of the 4 services is the Constabulary, i.e., the police) and not ever be outwardly projected, Duterte himself has pointed this out when he talks about the foolhardiness of challenging China’s claim to the Sprately’s, Scarborough Shoal, etc. Of course, this is also why working through ASEAN and The Hague made sense.
It’s an enemy of my enemy thing. Militarily, the US is obviously stretched out and suffering a bit of fatigue. Russia wants to take this opportunity and shift their national focus by gaining over power in Europe. China wants to shift their national focus by doing the same in the South China Sea. They both encounter a bunch of nations backed by one superpower, and that superpower is the US.
During the cold wars Russia pretty much had to do it alone. Now China is rich, and they acknowledge they are on equal grounds with different direction of interests, teaming up makes a lot of sense.
Tell me if i’m wrong, US businesses and consumers does more for the Philippines then China. I don’t see many Chinese companies going there or even people from the philippines in China when i was there.
I see this as bejnd a Filipino Chinese thing…wall of money to come in from china with the security of local politicians backing…casinos, hotels, infrastructure projects, agricultural investment and ports…all that jazz. You’ve seen part of the model in Taiwan already Loads of money to share out but only to select few players. Chinese will own and control most of the assets. See places like Boracay and Palawan wrecked by millions of Chinese tourist…urrrghhhh.
I see very little benefit beyond that for Filipinos in terms of their industries in china…maybe just like Taiwan will buy a few boatloads of mangoes from time to time. Maybe the Chinese assist with some motorways or railways…we shall see.
See how long it takes for locals to turn against the Filo Chinese when they realize they are being bought and sold cheaply again.
GooseEgg probably has a better perspective on this, but my impression is:
The US is still doing the United Fruit thing. In the Philippines, the modus operandi involves wining and dining local mayors so that agribusiness can move in and create huge plantations (bananas, oil palm, etc). These plantations are toxic wastelands where the locals are warned to stay indoors during aerial spraying operations. Eventually the Americans move on, leaving a big glowing hole in the ground. Similar things with mining, although I think most of the mining output goes to China.
The Philippines needs/wants some US Army presence because they have no functioning military of their own. A lot of their hardware was donated by the US (I assume benefits-in-kind changed hands; I don’t think this stuff was paid for). This is a love/hate relationship because it shows up the country’s utter ineptness, and if there’s one thing Filipinos hate, it’s other people noticing that they’re inept. Thus Duterte’s “fuck you, but you’d better not think about deserting us” stance.
There are many Chinese-Filipinos in the Philippines who, by virtue of being citizens, are allowed to do business. 90% of the profitable corporations are run by Chinese-Filipinos. Non-Chinese Filipinos absolutely hate this because, again, it highlights their own ineptness. Meanwhile, these powerful Chinese families are able to secure various forms of support in Mainland China, via the usual guanxi networks. Indirectly, then, China does a lot for the Philippines.
Given official concessions, I suspect the Chinese will rape the country even harder than the Americans did, and there will be nothing to show for it. Whatever money (loans) might materialize will be simply stolen, as they always are.
Oh, almost certainly. He seems not to realise the US (and China) have seen it all before. Just look at North Korea. He might get what he want in terms of state aid/loans, just to keep him quiet, but he’ll lose bigtime in terms of respect. Ordinary investors, tourists, etc will probably trickle away.
The Philippines Trade Minister said the country “would not stop trade and investment with the US.” I don’t know how much power he actually has or do other people in the position of power there support or oppose him?
I echo @finley - it’s complicated. Because imo the Filipinos “should” need and want strong relations with both China and the US. It can’t really afford to alienate both in the long run.
I don’t know the numbers today, but when describing the out-sized impact of the Chinese community in the Philippines, I say that ethnic Chinese make up 2% of the country’s population and controls (i.e., directly impacts) 80% of the economy. Whatever the actual figures are, there is no denying that critical decision makers have roots and strong personal interests to cultivate relations on all levels in China.
For the US relationship, what keeps the Philippines close to America are different things, not to mention a large population of Filipino-Americans in the US (3.4M in the 2010 Census). So it’s not like you have to choose only one because you would want both for different reasons.
Besides, it’s easy to have it both ways. Here’s a simple metaphor: basketball. A Filipino can appreciate the sport in both an American and Chinese context. It is a quintessentially American sport with a strong emphasis on individual play but with a high-value placed on teamwork and strategy – qualities that Americans overseas have often been characterised with (as in the military and multinational companies, like the fruit growers). Meanwhile, China has become a perennial regional power in Asian basketball today, and you can bet there is dancing in the streets when the Philippine team beats – or even just loses well – against China. Some of the best players the Philippines has ever produced have Chinese names - look up Samboy Lim or Atoy Co (boy, am I dating myself). And are half or most of the companies that sponsor the PBA owned or controlled by Chinese families? Of course, although you wouldn’t know it because these are some of the country’s largest homegrown brands and corporations.
Now, let’s not forget that geopolitically, a resurgent China is a new thing. Here in Taiwan we wouldn’t necessarily realize that, since the rhetoric and hostility from China are unlike any faced by other countries and this has essentially been the backdrop in cross-strait relations for decades.
But for other Asian countries to now have a potentially viable choice in geopolitical sugar daddy? That’s new. Plus the fact that the previous Philippine administration demonstrated that the country today doesn’t even need economic aid (it became an aid donor to Europe a couple years ago), well, that is if only the political leadership would deign to not steal EVERYTHING! Given this new reality, shouldn’t the government take stock and ask itself what is a good deal for us and who should give it?
Here comes Duterte, already himself 30 years of experience as a strongman/warlord – and for the record: imo Davao should be miles ahead of where it is now if he really did clean it up completely; what his quasi-despotic rule over there proves to me most of all is that he can get away with this demagogue-like behaviour. He is a product of The Left who have NEVER been in power, are ideologically Maoists, and have no affinity for the special relationship between the US and the Philippines. For him, “Little Brown Brother” was an outrage, not a term of endearment. And the rumors at the end of the election cycle were that he got a big boost of cash from “the Chinese” – which could mean the local Chinese community, the PRC government, private or gangster elements from China, or all of the above. So, there is no surprise he was going to pay his respects to Beijing in some way.
How bad could things get anyway? Just look at Vietnam just across the water. There’s a country that not only won a war against the US, but it humiliated the Americans in the process. Yet today America lavishes itself on Vietnam (I am all for global trade, so I have absolutely no problem with that). In this context, is it really a big gamble that Duterte is making by playing his China-card?
According to Wikipedia, there were 3.4M Filipino-Americans counted in the 2010 Census and 4.7M Chinese-Americans (not including Taiwanese-Americans) in the same survey. Fil-Ams are the 2nd largest Asian-American community.
So that’s less than 2% of the population of Filipinos with at least one Chinese parent, and up to 27% of the population of Filipinos like me, who have a Chinese ancestor - in my case, my maternal great-grandfather.
##Top 10 Philippine Corporations
[with the Chinese family that controls them in brackets - and these are not even the wealthiest Chinese families in the country - well, they are among the richest]
What benefit do Filipinos get from dealing with China and dumping America arbitrarily?
What’s the point?
We know some very rich connected families will benefit, but what does the average guy on the street get?
Besides China is occupying so called Filipino territory so hardly a friend either.
All this being said it’s not a bad thing for the Philippines to have a ‘better’ relationship with china but why insult Obama and the Americans at the same time. That’s just dumb!!
I just smell wads of dirty money being thrown around and nothing else as the motivation.
I think Duterte once said during the presidential campaign something along the lines of what difference does it make that China is in the Spratleys (or Scarborogh Shoal, or any of those uninhabited rocks in the ocean) - the Philippines is going to sign away the rights to either the Americans (Exxon) or the Europeans (Shell) anyway. China needs the energy, so instead of just letting them take it all by force and instigate a 3rd World War, let’s cut a deal and get a slice.
Whether its the West or China, the Philippines is going to do a deal whatever the case, it is not going to develop them on its own, besides it has bigger problems to deal with.
I do not think the Philippines is going to dump the US. I am not sure it can in practical terms. This is why I am interested to see where Duterte thinks he can take this.
I don’t think this pivot to China is at all about helping the Man on the Street. I think it’s about Duterte telling the US you are no longer the only game in town. He literally described it as a “separation”. And if he succeeds in presenting China as a genuine potential partner, despite how lopsided the relationship may well turn out to be, then maybe he will nudge the US.
It’s an interesting one for sure. I agree that those islands must be far down the list of priorities. If the Philippines was to get very advantageous terms from china that might be worth it…however one suspects the advantages are going to be given to a select few (again see the Taiwan experience of last 8 years).
At the same time nobody ever got respect from the Chinese from giving concessions at the start.
Do you see the Philippines continuing to have a robust economy? Will Philippines be able to export services to china? I don’t see how this will create much employment in the Philippines except for increased tourism.
What about issues like schooling and health? Can and will china help with these fundamental issues?
Since Filipinos wholeheartedly endorse Duterte and his extreme fascist policies it indicates that Philippines society has a lot of desperation or is easily swayed at moment. I have seen videos of the camps they are holding the suspected drug dealers in and there are many human rights abuses there. Of course arbitrary murder of suspects has been endorsed through society and this again is a very bad sign, it’s not something we’ve seen in most of the western world for since the 1930s (some black folks might argue the toss in US I guess).
He’ll get a few miserable freebies, and he’ll be ecstatic about it.
It depends a lot on whether the Chinese are allowed in to undertake big engineering projects, employing only Chinese contractors, as they were in various African states. Broadly speaking, they know what they’re doing and they keep their word: if they agree to build a road to a certain spec, then that’s what they do. They probably pay whatever bribes are demanded, but money for the project itself doesn’t go missing. Or at least not all of it. So the locals end up with a road that doesn’t fall to pieces after 5 years.
However, it is essentially illegal in the Philippines for foreign corporations to run infrastructure projects, or indeed most types of high-skill businesses. In an effort to “keep certain sectors of the economy for Filipinos” (the phrase itself shows how badly Filipinos understand real-world economics) they’ve paradoxically managed to permit foreigners to rape the country (mining, agribusiness, sex tourism) or create make-work jobs (call centres) while excluding them from anything that might be socially useful.
That’s a safe assumption, unless some concrete evidence emerges to the contrary.
Nudge them into doing what though? The military don’t really “need” the Philippines, not the way they did during the Cold War. As described, the Constitution expressly forbids foreigners to control any businesses in the Philippines, ever, until the end of time. It doesn’t work out that way of course: most foreign interaction that does occur is technically unconstitutional, and the Supreme Court occasionally holds a show trial and punishes these heinous characters (there’s a court record somewhere of a foreign ‘investor’ being hauled over the coals for helping a few friends set up a sari-sari store, the evil bastard - google it).
So whatever deals he cuts with China will probably also be unconstitutional. The Chinese might not care much about that, but the Americans, being a nation of lawyers, tend not to tread more carefully if they think their exposure to legal shenanigans is too high (look what happened to the German contractors fixing up the airport). Duterte can prod the Americans all he likes, but the country’s structural underpinnings remain as unattractive to investment as ever.
I must say, I hate talk of ‘human rights’ with a passion. The central feature of any functioning society is human responsibility. Rights must be given, but responsibilities can be assumed. Fundamentally, Filipinos do not grok the idea of responsibility towards anyone or anything outside of their clan; hence the wholesale theft of national property and funding, scamming, poor customer service and product quality, causal thieving from neighbours, environmental destruction, and endless feuding over trivialities. I believe this to be a common feature of all failed states or subcultures (eg, US ghetto culture).
I think there is a little desperation on the part of the Philippines. I read earlier this week that the Malampaya field, which is a huge Natural Gas deposit off the coast of Palawan, is “running out”. It apparently fuels a lot of the energy requirements of MERALCO, so the country is at risk of rationing power (daily blackouts, something I grew up with <-- not fun) as early as 2018. And given how much we all depend on the Internet today (the Philippines has been the #1 Call Center provider for several years now) - daily brownouts are going to hit the economy like a supertyphoon.
I cannot think of any services that the Philippines will export to China. I mentioned Robinson Land is there - they are like any foreign investor building high rise developments and trying to get their piece of the China gold rush (following the example of Taiwanese businessmen). Another big Philippine business in China is Oishi. When I asked my friends in Shanghai if they knew it was a Filipino brand, they don’t believe me - I actually met one of the owners at a fancy dinner thrown by the Philippine consulate tourism bureau (shout out to Gerry Panga for the invitation, who use to be tourism attache here in Taipei before being moved to Shanghai almost 8 years ago) and he told me he gets the same reaction when he tells Chinese people, too.
I do not expect China to help in the essential services that you describe. I expect China to help in encouraging infrastructure building, like that 17 year building program currently underway in Manila (what has been dubbed Carmaggeddon) - the cement, the equipment, the supplies, will be funded or sourced from China. I remember there was a stretch of time when many of the city buses (and granted, I don’t normally ride the bus when I’m there) were hand-me-downs from China – most of the city buses are privately operated btw.
Tourism is a big deal. Look at what it was like here in Taiwan when they had it really going. Sure, we hate the crowds, but that was A LOT of money. Now, the Chinese tourist is going to be encouraged to go to the Philippines? That’s a lot.
You mentioned Philippine fascism. I learned about Philippine facism right here on Forumosa from @finley – and I do not believe Duterte is a fascist. He is a socialist at heart and an autocrat in practice. He just happens to head a society that has been structured for fascism. Those fascist policies are not his. I am not aware he plans to do anything to change this btw. He only talks about his drug war. I have been told that if you removed all the cops from the street, you would solve the drug more quickly as well as most of the crime - and downsizing the Philippine Constabulary would be a huge step towards dismantling the fascist infrastructure of the government. I don’t think it’s going to happen because no one talks about it.
I just used the term fascism in terms of implementing a strong state response to removing a subgroup violently without juduicial supervision (and all with strong electoral support underpinning the policy).
Fascist (autocratic) regimes also ally with other fascist (autocratic)
regimes
Finley no doubt has something much more complicated in mind.
No doubt it’s hard for outsiders to understand the motivation of voters. When the police barely function as you mention then things can get turned upside down.
I suspect that Filipinos expectations of government are extremely low and as long as a couple of issues are dealt with effectively (drug dealing) they will think it’s worthwhile as the government isn’t doing anything for them in general.
Is crime the number one concern of Filipinos or is it the economy? I guess when there is a growing middle class the issue of crime and public safety may become more predominant in dealing with quality of life issues.
Interesting to note the coming energy crunch and that the potential gas fields are in the South China Sea,
I don’t see the Philippines China friendship being stable in that case.
When the police barely function as you mention then things can get turned upside down.
Actually, I meant to say that the police are effectively the largest criminal organization. There is so much corruption. One point of view is that many of the vigilante killings in the drug war are done by the cops eliminating their contacts int he drug syndicates. This is why the needs presented by the underlying forces - the drug users and the drug kingpins - are not actually being addressed.
South China Sea
It always makes me chuckle that in the Philippines we recently began calling it the West Philippine Sea. Technically, it’s also true. I am going to start referring to it as the North Bruneian Pond or the East Vietnam Fishing Area.
But then on Thursday, the Chinese foreign ministry announced that the two countries signed numerous bilateral cooperation documents, and added that China “is willing to actively take part in the building of the Philippine railways, city rail transport, highways, ports and other infrastructure which will benefit the local people,” among other things.
