I think most of them thought it would at the time, and probably haven’t changed their minds
They make their own assessments about their interests. My opinions were not solicited 
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It was a huge loss of face for Xi and still is( for the ultranationalist hardcore which are his core). If he did nothing at all, it would have been less in his interests
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Nah, our next president will likely be KMT, and then Taiwan and China will be buddy-buddies again. It’s a never-ending cycle.
The opinion polls seem to disagree.
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Since the missiles—some of which landed in Japanese waters—we’ve seen further commitments in Japan to continuing their military reforms, and establishing military agreements with countries such as the UK.
Well played, Beijing!
Guy
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Too early to call. Eleven months in Taiwan’s electoral cycle is an eternity. 
Guy
We could be surprised. After all, nobody expected the outcomes of the latest local/mayoral elections.
I don’t think Beijing cares about Taiwan domestic politics anymore or has the cash to buy out elections here. I think they are well aware that peaceful unification is off the cards at this point.
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Well… the local elections are not a single constituency like the presidency. There is a lot more nuance in the local elections at that point.
Those things would have happened anyway, there was no advantage to the Pelosi visit
In case it is not clear, I am stating that Beijing’s actions precipitated a further consolidation of opposition to their aggressive moves.
I am stating as well that this actually may not be in their interests as a nation, even though it may—as @OrangeOrganics has written—be in the narrow short-term interests of Xi Jinping. Whether it is in his long-term interests remains unclear to me.
Guy
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The Pelosi trip was not in the best interests of the US or Taiwan, but was in the best interests of Nancy Pelosi. That’s how politics works.
It would have been disastrous for the party to do nothing, from their perspective.
There are like a bazillion examples of similar situations like this in politics in our own countries
What you are stating is incorrect. There wasn’t a cause and effect. Focus on the indo-pacific was happening anyway, Japan was rearming anyway. These things take time and happen behind closed doors.
What I heard from some think tank people is that Nancy Pelosi pushed for the visit and the Biden administration tried to stop her.
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Missiles hitting the waters in Okinawa provided additional justification for Tokyo to act, especially given the political headwinds Kishida faces from the pacifist elements of Japanese society. Surely you can see that Beijing’s actions make the pacifist (i.e. anti-military reform) voices less persuasive in Japan. That is not insignificant.
Guy
If you want to believe that then sure. Whatever makes you happy
This stuff has been in the works for years.
Japan has a a real tangible threat to its future if Taiwan is lost. Japan politicians are well aware of this.
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I don’t disagree. And now they are not just aware, they are acting.
Guy
I believe what Orange is trying to say is that they have already been acting for some time now, which I agree with.
A lot of things have already been in the works ever since Abe was president. In fact, I’'m convinced that Abe actually wanted to go to war with China more than China wanted to go to war with Japan. That guy was the Japanese version of George W. Bush.
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Let’s pray Lai doesn’t do anything risky.
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Nor do these things happen in a vacuum
Those Japanese politicians must also be aware that the general population has no appetite for it, despite it probably being in their own best interests. Those missiles were a gift to hawks in Japan
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And the moment changes like, all the time. Ad hoc empire.
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