NFL - Week by week picks

EDIT: So rather than flood the forum with a new topic each week with my picks, I decided I would post every weeks picks right here. Also note that I added betting lines for three games a week (starting week 2) and a cold hard lock of the week.

NFL is here, I got my last minute picks right here. Winners in bold, tell me what an idiot I am with replies.

New Orleans @ Green Bay

Two great teams, it is hard to pick, but I’ll give the edge to New Orleans because I think Drew Brees is playing with a chip on his shoulder due to the Saints’ first round exit last year. But I wouldn’t bet either way.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

One of the best rivalries in football. Joe Flacco has never beaten the Steelers when Big Ben is playing Quarterback, so why did I pick them? Because the Steelers haven’t played well coming off of their past two Super Bowl wins, how do you think they are going to do coming off of a loss and dealing with the dreded “Super Bowl Hangover”

Atlanta @ Chicago

Both teams had a great regular season last year and then disappointed in the playoffs, I am going with Atlanta because Matt Ryan is more consistent than Jay Cutler.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

With the Carson Palmer fiasco, and losing their best defensive player during the off-season, The Bungles are a mess. Cleveland is on the rise and Colt McCoy looks good, this is a no-brainer.

Indianapolis @ Houston

With Peyton Manning out, this could be The Texans’ year. For any non football fan reading this (why are you reading this?) who wants to know how important Peyton Manning is, once word got out might miss some time, you couldn’t find a betting site on the web that would let you bet on his division. One guy goes down, and the entire division has bets taken off the table.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Cutting Garrard right before the season started was classless, and also a bad football move. Luke McCown obviously isn’t the answer, and it doesn’t look good that 1st round pick Blaine Gabbart couldn’t beat him out for the starting job. Tennessee isn’t that great either, but who are you going to bet on, Matt Hassellback or Luke McCown? Yeah, that is what I thought.

Buffalo @ Kansas City

I think Buffalo may surprise people this year, they lost a bunch of games close last year, and Fitzpatrick is not a bad QB, I think at the end of the year Kansas City will have a better record than Buffalo, but I think The Bills go to Arrowhead Stadium and steal one.

Philadelphia @ St. Louis

Dream Team? Who knows, I don’t like their offensive line, but Vick can scramble to compensate that somewhat. Much has been said about their off season acquisitions, it will look really bad if they can’t beat an admittedly improving Rams team, improving or not the Eagles are expected to be contenders, the Rams are not, the Eagles better win.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay

Another Toss up game, two improving teams with young, improving QBs I’m going with Tampa because we have seen more out of Freeman who had an amazing year for a second year QBs against an admittedly easy schedule. Being at home doesn’t hurt either

Carolina @ Arizona

Cam Newton may be the future, but he I joining a team that had two wins all of last season, it will be a work in progress, while Arizona wasn’t much better Kolb has more weapons and more experience. Cam Newton’s first NFL game will be in a hostile dome, that doesn’t bode well.

Minnesota @ San Diego

San Diego had the best offense and best defense (statistically) last year and still managed to miss the playoffs due to what had to be the worst special teams performance in recent memory. That doesn’t happen this year and San Diego beats Minnesota while McNabb is still gelling with his new team

Seattle @ San Francisco

The better question is who cares? I was going to pick Seattle, then I realized I would be picking Tavaris Jackson, so I switched, then I realized I would be betting on Alex Smith. I decided to pick San Francisco simply because they are at home. The better question is, does the winner actually lose because it will put them behind in the standings for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes?

New York Giants @ Washington

The Giants have lost a few pieces. Rex Grossmann could easily blow the game, as he is apt to do that, but he is just as apt to throw a few TDs and I expect him to start off hot after a good preseason, the only question is if he can do it all year?

Dallas @ New York Jets

Jets have a great defense, an improving QB, and some explosive Weapons on offense. Dallas is banged up and has essentially the same team as last year that struggled even before Romo got injured, and actually loss some key players to cap problems during the offseason. Of course the media is still hyping the Cowboys again this year, for some reason.

New England @ Miami
Tom Brady versus Chad Henne, who you picking?

Oakland @ Denver

Oakland lost arguably its two best players, I don’t think much about Denver, Orton seem unable to play in the fourth quarter, but I think they have this game against Oakland that has yet another new Head Coach.

F*uck, just realized I have 5 bucks on GB. . . guess I really am playing both sides of the fence on that game.

Arrowhead is one of the toughest fields to play against in the NFL.

Yeah, my mind is telling me to pick Kansas City actually, logically it is the team to pick. I just have this gut feeling, the Bills have been playing well week 1 the last few years, but had always come up short, I have a feeling they break that trend this week. I could be wrong, like I said, most of the arrows point towards KC, tough place to play, better QB, better defense.

But I just have this image in my head of Steve Johnson catching a last second touchdown in my head that I can’t shake, and this is coming from someone who hates the Bills, so it isn’t homerism. Call it a premonition.

I paid $40 to be in a ‘last man standing’ pool - even though I FAILD last year in something like week 6 - and picked the Browns this weekend. There are 116 people in this game, and approximately 116 of us picked Cleveland. So I am furked plus royally pissed if Colt McCoy doesn’t do something sufficiently leaderly, Texas-wise. Fuck, if I lose in Week 1 then…what is the NFL equivalent of seppuku again?! (in my book it’s gleefully picking winners based on, say, the QB’s wife’s choice of granite color in her new kitchen, which of course was a female co-worker’s winning strategy last year, earning her more than $4,000 cash :fume: )

And although in last night’s game Greg Jennings got me 14pts in my yahoo fantasy league, my opponent has Aaron Rodgers AND Jermichael Finley. So I’m down 38-14 as things stand. Fuck a duck, my pigskin brethren. :frowning:

Double post, sorry.

Looks like you were right about the Bills. I’m afraid this will be another crappy year for my beloved Chiefs.

Yeah, but not even I expected that bad of a game, I can’t believe how badly KC laid down / Buffalo played a good game.

Okay, so I never did a week 1 analysis like I said I would, but go f*** yourself, I was busy, actually that is a lie, I wasn’t busy at all I just didn’t feel like doing it. Here are my week 2 picks. Winners are in bold.

Oakland @ Buffalo

I want to pick Oakland, I really do. I like them, even though I picked against them two weeks in a row, I do not think they are a bad team. They got a good running game and their defense, despite losing Nnamdi, still looks solid. Still, Buffalo looked so impressive with their drubbing of the Chiefs that I can’t pick against them, I have to ride them until they prove otherwise. I am picking Buffalo because I think they will win, but I feel guilty doing it. And don’t worry Raider fans, I’ll pick your team eventually.

Chicago @ New Orleans

Like Oakland, Chicago proved a lot to me by beating a favored Atlanta team. But Drew Brees will not be denied for a second straight week, he is going to put up some numbers this week, and I feel pretty bad for fantasy players who have to go against him this week, but not quite as bad as I feel for the Bears’ defense. The Saints should win.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

My betting mantra, circa 2005 - 2009 used to be “never bet against Peyton” and it served me well far more often than not. But without Peyton, my new mantra is going to be "never bet on the Colts. Until they prove otherwise, I am picking against them every single week.

Kansas City @ Detroit

Kansas City just got embarrassed by the Bills, Detroit just beat another up and coming young team in the Bucs. This has the potential for a let-down game, but until Kansas City’s defense proves it can stand up to a slight breeze, I’m not betting on them over Megatron.

Green Bay @ Carolina

Cam Newton made a lot of believers in his NFL debut, but in the end, this is the team with the first overall pick versus the team with the last first round pick. This is a no-brainer.

Baltimore @ Tennessee

Man the Ravens looked impressive last week, didn’t they? Yeah they did. How did the Titans look? Couldn’t beat Luke McCown? Yeah, go with Baltimore.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

A lot of people are picking he Vikings to win this game. McNabb only threw for 39 yards last week. They were in the game due to San Diego’s lax special teams play, but that isn’t going to work this week. Until McNabb proves he can play in the purple and gold, I’m betting against them.

Jacksonville @ New York Jets

Luke McCown playing against the exotic Rex Ryan Jets defense? Doesn’t sound pretty to me. Their only hope is that McCown avoids any mistakes and they give him a healthy dose of MJD. Santonio Holmes also may not play for the Jets, which complicates things a bit, still, I look for Shonn Greene to try to silence the critics and the Jets D to hammer an inexperienced QB and to come away with a W.

Arizona @ Washington

Tim Hightower looks to have a big game against his old team. Kolb looked decent, but The Cardinals’ defense looked VERY suspect against the Panthers last week. I don’t like picking the Redskins twice in a row, but I am going to try to ride them to one more victory.

Seattle @ Pittsburgh

I’m not a big believer in the Steelers this year, rather, I believe in the SuperBowl hangover, which oddly even effects them when they win the Superbowl. That being said, Seattle is one of the worst three teams in the league, and the Steelers better handle them at home.

Dallas @ San Fransisco

Dallas looked great for three quarters last week. I expect them to handle San Fransisco even if Dez Bryant does not play. It is hard not to root for Alex Smith, a guy who is assuredly getting his last chance in San Fransisco (if not the entire NFL). I really am hoping he puts it together, but until he does, I can’t bet on who I want to win.

Cincinnati @ Denver

Yeah, I am picking Cincinnati against a team I picked to win last week. I don’t know what to say, they impressed me last week, and Kyle Orton did not. This pick is going to make me look either real stupid or real smart, we will see.

Houston @ Miami

Dolphins’ D looked pretty pathetic, even if it was Tom Brady doing it. On the plus side Chad Henne had a great game. But until he starts putting up Ws, I’m not betting on him. Houston’s new look defense finally gets an actual test this week, so I feel this game is hard to call because we really don’t know what we are getting there. Still, I’ll take Matt Schaub over Chad Henne.

San Diego @ New England

I’ve gone back and forth on this game all day. Conventional wisdom says to pick the Pats, and Tom Brady did look scary good last week. But their defense gave up over 400 yards to Chad Henne, Chad freaking Henne. What is Phillip Rivers, with Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, and Antonio Gates all on the field going to do to it? San Diego’s Defense also didn’t look too bad to me, so I don’t expect Tom Brady to throw for 500 yards again, though I do suspect he will put up some numbers. This will be a shoot out, the over under is 54, and I’d STILL pick the over.
(ugh, why do I get the feeling I’m going to regret this pick? Should I change it again? Nah, too late, buy the ticket take the ride, like Hunter S. Thompson always said)

Philadelphia @ Atlanta

Another one I keep going back and forth on. Still, Eagles have a suspect line, John Abraham is perhaps the only DE in the league who can run down Vick, and Atlanta is looking to get the nasty taste from last week out of their mouth. Plus, playing on the road I feel like there is far more mental pressure on Vick than Ryan.

MNF: St. Louis @ New York Giants

Steven Jackson is questionable, but even if he plays it is doubtful he will get much work. Bradford is a beast, and he might tear up the secondary and pull off the upset, but without his best player coming out of the back field and his slot player (and favorite red zone target) Danny Amendola also banged up, I’m betting on the Giants banged up Defense to win this game.

New Feature this week, Betting games of the week. I’ll take three games and pick them against the spread. Lines are taken from via Yahoo Sports. I’ll also give one Cold Hard Lock. (it’ll be fun seeing how many of those I have right by the end of the year)

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

Vikings are giving 3, I think Tampa outright wins the game. McNabb is looking bad. Take Tampa and take the points.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

Cleveland is only giving 2 to Indy. TWO. Kerry Collins scored seven points last week. I know the Browns looked back against the Bengals, but Kerry Collins looked worse, the Colts Defense looked worse. Without Peyton this team is nothing. Never bet on the Colts. Take The Browns give the points.

And my Cold Hard Lock of the week is:

Baltimore @ Titans.

Ravens are giving 6.5. The Ravens just beat the Steelers by FOUR touchdowns, and Vegas is telling me that they can’t beat the Titans by one? Take the Ravens and give the points. That is my Cold Hard Lock of the week.

Let me know what you think