Novel coronavirus cases reignite SARS fears - the epidemic mess foretold

In which case we need to guestimate at what point the figures stopped being fake. If the real figures of cases were obviously much higher 3 or 4 weeks ago than those reported, at what point did they start being reported accurately?

I think it’s reasonable to assume that the figures reported 4 weeks ago and the figures reported now are equal in their accuracy, so a percentage increase between the two is also reasonable. That percentage increase should now be seen in other countries unless they have far superior preventative measures in place.

how did you come to this conclusion? of course they still are and forever will be fake. we are never going to know what the real figure is just like all of the CCPs fuck ups throughout history.

Remember that Wuhan in the first half of January didn’t have preventative measures at all - they held a potluck banquet for 40,000 families when doctors had already been sounding the alarm for a couple of weeks, which almost looks like a twisted effort to spread the virus as much as possible. Absolutely no measures were taken in China at a key time, which hopefully leaves open the possibility that the preventative measures being taken elsewhere now will be enough.

Hopefully.

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I agree, so the question is are they more inaccurate now than 4 weeks ago? If the figures are equally inaccurate in presumably underreported cases then the percentage increase should be something to work with.

I doubt the 27 or so countries that have reported cases are preventing public gatherings. Maybe what preventative measures that are being taken, limiting potential carriers from entering the country and encouraging citizens to start following basic personal hygiene, will be enough.

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A post was split to a new topic: Will there be any issues transiting through Hong Kong?

I haven’t seen any Chinese tourists in Istanbul so far.

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I doubt it’ll be enough, but I think it’s still possible. Even telling people, “Hey, there’s a bad virus going around, and if you’ve been in contact with anyone who has been in Wuhan recently, try to keep to yourself” isn’t exactly strict preventative measures, but it’s still far, far better than what was happening in Wuhan (“There’s no disease! Come to this giant banquet! Go forth across the country for Chinese New Year!”). We’ve gone from the equivalent of everyone using common dishes and their own chopsticks dipped in those dishes, to everyone eating their own separate meals, and that’s not an insignificant change. (Obviously this is not a statistically exact analogy!)

At the moment I think it’s quite likely that richer countries - Taiwan, Canada, the USA, Japan - can keep a lid on this for the next month or so; but things could be tragically different in poorer countries with less developed health systems. If it does continue to spread in China over the next month, and also spreads in other countries, then yeah, I figure we’re screwed. Well, not screwed in the “We’re all going to die” sense, but screwed in the “This is going to be a very bad year” sense.

This must have been referred to somewhere above, but I’m not sure, so I’ll add it again: one hopeful possibility is that coronaviruses often don’t do well in hot climates - so perhaps Africa will be spared. From Vox:

Among the many mysteries of the new coronavirus: We don’t know how it behaves in places with hot climates, such as countries in Southern Africa.

“Coronaviruses are winter viruses,” Fauci said. “When the weather is warm and moist, these viruses don’t spread as well as when the weather is cold and dry.”

While it remains a concern that developing countries in the global south don’t have the health systems to detect the virus and do contact tracing, “The somewhat encouraging news is that the weather in some of those countries is warm and moist … [which] favors against the spread of the coronavirus since it’s fundamentally a winter disease,” Fauci said.

Um, bring on the summer? Boy, that’s a thought I’ve never had in this country before.

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They might still be asymptomatic.

Well America stays winning! /s.

How much do you think the CCP will paint this in the history books as a correlated attack by the US to sealing the strength of China?

Edit: Time Magazine’s cover story this week.

Let me tell you a little story …
Today I stopped at a housewares store. I went up to the second floor, which has a metal roof. Seriously, it was like an oven in there.
While i was choosing my bucket, i heard the saleslady come up behind me (they usually stick to you like glue). I turned around and the first thing I noticed was her sweat covered face, hair plastered to her temples.
I remarked that it was hot as an oven up there, to which she replied in a stuffy, muffled voice ," No.No.I’m sick. I have a terrible fever". Sooooo, different perception of acceptable behavior here (Bali).
I couldn’t get out of there quick enough.
Please spare some Fs for me. If this shit comes to pass, I’m a goner.

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In Korea they developed something called contact tracking. They show where the infected have been, down to the seat number in the movie theater.

Very useful when faced with the spreaders: a couple from Wuhan that went on a literal country tour …while symptomatic.

:thinking:

:thinking:

:thinking:

Meaning they…haven’t shown that they’re infected with being Chinese yet, or?

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There must be some signs that someone is a Chinese tourist.

Are Taiwanese people technically asymptomatically Chinese?

:thinking:
:thinking:
:thinking:

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Hmmm…if I’m mixed race, and not white-passing…does that make me asymptomatically white?!

image

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My wife says it’s like a resort with a chance of drowning

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I’m happa and no i don’t think of it that way. One is kinda a new sub species is what I think but not sub as in inferior

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