My cat is 21 pounds and he likes to push around other cats. There’s a little cat that comes around and visits with him. He used to push this cat around until the little cat starting showing an impressive set of claws and teeth and the determination to use them. Now he chases my cat around.
This is what a heavily armed Taiwan can do. Keep the bigger cat at bay.
My cat could probably still win in a major cat fight with the little guy but he thinks twice. Thats all we want China to do. To think long and hard before taking any moves against Taiwan.
[quote=“tommy525”]My cat is 21 pounds and he likes to push around other cats. There’s a little cat that comes around and visits with him. He used to push this cat around until the little cat starting showing an impressive set of claws and teeth and the determination to use them. Now he chases my cat around.
This is what a heavily armed Taiwan can do. Keep the bigger cat at bay.
My cat could probably still win in a major cat fight with the little guy but he thinks twice. Thats all we want China to do. To think long and hard before taking any moves against Taiwan.
Weapons as a deterent against thuggery.[/quote]
Yeah but what if you don’t want that small cat to declare independence? That’s what a potential DPP president might be inclined to do if Taiwan were to have weapons that are “too good”, because then he’ll know China will be powerless to stop it. Obama had to had this on his mind on any arm sells to Taiwan.
Yeah but what if you don’t want that small cat to declare independence? That’s what a potential DPP president might be inclined to do if Taiwan were to have weapons that are “too good”, because then he’ll know China will be powerless to stop it. Obama had to had this on his mind on any arm sells to Taiwan.[/quote]
Absolutely not. You couldn’t sell Taiwan enough weapons to make China powerless. Obama just wants to avoid riling Beijing up.
Yeah but what if you don’t want that small cat to declare independence? That’s what a potential DPP president might be inclined to do if Taiwan were to have weapons that are “too good”, because then he’ll know China will be powerless to stop it. Obama had to had this on his mind on any arm sells to Taiwan.[/quote]
Absolutely not. You couldn’t sell Taiwan enough weapons to make China powerless. Obama just wants to avoid riling Beijing up.[/quote]
Correct. Taiwan could have 1000 of the latest aircraft from the USA. China would still be able to win a war quickly.
[quote=“Tempo Gain”]
Absolutely not. You couldn’t sell Taiwan enough weapons to make China powerless. Obama just wants to avoid riling Beijing up.[/quote]
[quote=“bigduke6”]
Correct. Taiwan could have 1000 of the latest aircraft from the USA. China would still be able to win a war quickly.[/quote]
Reeeeeeeallllly? That’s some high praise for the Chinese military. I’m sure people in the PLA will be pleased that you guys think this highly of them.
But you know what I think is funny? Why is it that in a strictly military context(let’s say when China rolls out a new military system), I often hear people poo-poo the Chinese military. But in a political context, such as when people talk about “Chinese threat”, or of course, arm sells to Taiwan, and China is suddenly a military power. Make up your mind people. Is the Chinese military a piece of crap or a superpower?
[quote=“bohica”]
Is the Chinese military a piece of crap or a superpower?[/quote]
It doesn’t have to be either one. You said this:
China is always going to have the ability to inflict its power onto Taiwan; while weapon sales will give Taiwan a greater ability to defend itself, nothing is going to make China “powerless to stop” Taiwan independence. Even if China can’t win a victory, it can make things pretty hot over here. China doesn’t need to be a superpower to not be powerless.
[quote=“Tempo Gain”]
China is always going to have the ability to inflict its power onto Taiwan; while weapon sales will give Taiwan a greater ability to defend itself[/quote]
Sure, that’s why Obama approved the F-16 upgrade, to give Taiwan an ability to defend itself, but not too much. That’s why the TRA says Taiwan shall have “defensive” weapons. Don’t overlook the word “defensive” here because the TRA(and the fact that China is always able to inflict heavy damage on Taiwan) is not a blank check for Taiwan to get whatever weapons it want.
[quote]But in a political context, such as when people talk about “Chinese threat”, or of course, arm sells to Taiwan, and China is suddenly a military power. Make up your mind people. Is the Chinese military a piece of crap or a superpower?[/quote]Bohica -
It isn’t an ‘either - or’ matter regariding the PRC/CCP/PLA etc’s military prowess.
While its quite true that the “latest & greatest” mil hardware that rolls out for public inspection is quickly found to be either a poor copy or a painted up sham, there is the increasingly common appearance of serviceable and purpose-directed offerings that are worth consideration.
This, coupled with the sheer numbers of items produced and number of personnel with increasingly up-to-date hardware/software to do their assigned task points to a China (PLA/PLAAF/PLN) that must be given its due regard.
Now add to this the number of political and technical personnel disbursed through-out the world whose sole purpose is to gather information, both technical and political, about the current state of their assigned area, and you have a behemoth of exponential proportions.
China, the PRC/CCP/PLA etc., long ago learned to play the ‘Great Game’ and has done so with both clumsy forcefulness and occasionally deft precision. In regards to Taiwan - both are in play and both are effective in infiltrating and driving the society - both militarily, economically i[/i] and politically - in the direction that is most beneficial for mainland interests.
Its not a matter of if - Its a matter of when…or at least some would say so.
Sure, that’s why Obama approved the F-16 upgrade, to give Taiwan an ability to defend it self, but not too much. .[/quote]
I get what you’re saying, but I highly doubt that’s the reason. Leaving everything else aside, it’s not like the C/D’s were going to allow Taiwan to march forward to Shanghai
Isn’t a free, democratic, and independent Taiwan something worth fighting for? Isn’t it something worth dying for? Surely, if you believe in a principle deep enough, sacrificing your own life for it is well worth it. Alas, that fighting spirit is disappearing by the day in Taiwan. That is why TI will one day enter into the dust bin of history.
Unfortunately China can press a button and any war with Taiwan is over. It is a simple matter of size and numbers. I have done a lot of business in China and travelled there many times. To most Chinese the Taiwan issue is a matter of national importance. The PLA would have no problem losing a few hundred thousand men. It is not like they have to answer to anyone.
Even if Taiwan had offensive capacity China is just too big.
Taiwan is tiny. A few well placed missiles and that would be that.
Even if China has inferior equipment it is also a matter of sheer numbers. Something the Chinese have proved economically.
You are right on this. If China wants to retake Taiwan at any cost, it will be able to do so. But it’s also quite possible that China will use far more limited military action (e.g. a blockade) or the mere threat of force to try to get Taiwan to unify. In such a situation, Taiwan having reasonable defence forces could allow Taiwan to call China’s bluff or holding China back until the US can intervene. And don’t think it’s guaranteed the US won’t get involved. If the US allowed China to bully Taiwan militarily into unification, American defence promises would mean nothing. It could kiss goodbye to its military alliances and bases around the world.
The PLA answers to the CCP, and the CCP is increasingly worrying about how to deal with Chinese people who get annoyed about things. I mean, for God’s sake, they get nervous when people protest about chemical plants. They’re going to care what people say about hundreds of thousands of Chinese men dying fighting an unnecessary war. Because whilst Chinese people believe Taiwan is an important issue, I haven’t met any that want it decided by military force. The people who I find are most supportive of military action are American defence fanboys whose parents or grandparents were born in China.
Well-placed where? Taiwanese aren’t French, you know.
If China wants to be the first country to use nuclear weapons to start and at the same time finish a war since 1945, it can do so. But what would be the point? To turn Taiwan into a barren wasteland, whilst crying out “MWUHAHAHA! If we can’t have Taiwan, NO ONE WILL! MWUHAHAHAHA!” Does China want the rest of the world to think it’s Nazi Germany on steroids?
Yes. PLA would have no problem losing a few men, but what about the rest of China. Is Shanghai or Beijing ready to take a few losses?
Vice versa is true too…Taiwan doesn’t need to hit everywhere in China, just the ones that makes the most difference.
The damn looks like a nice place to hit, if Taiwan can get something thats effective in damaging it…
[quote]
Even if China has inferior equipment it is also a matter of sheer numbers. Something the Chinese have proved economically.
They also have nukes. Tactical and strategic.[/quote]
This is true, and this is why there’s something called mutually assured destruction.
Don’t need to destroy China, just enough for them to feel the pain and f* off.
No.
No.
And no again.
As for the dust, it’s already been swept up.
As TC mentioned, economic/political warfare has been in effect here for quite some time. Why would any thinking person throw one’s life away for some flimsy ideology, especially that of an immature stagnant backwater, whose sole reason for existing since '45 until the late 90’s has been a branch plant. Since then, Taiwan industry has fought it’s way forward, after several relapses, and is now the envy of the motherland. As well it should be, yet those CCPers will not readily destroy this production of an island, at least until they get their dirty mitts upon such with cronyism and the kickbacks.
Until then, I buy Japanese. And grow me own tomatoes…
I think it’s pretty clear that the PLA would eventually win a war against Taiwan unless the US jumped in aggressively. This is becoming more doubtful by the year, as China’s military becomes stronger, with the potential losses for the US becoming much graver.
But what would China sacrifice to win such a war? What kind of shock would that be to the world economy, and China’s? Any PRC government that invaded Taiwan but crotch-kicked their own - and the world’s economy - would lose legitimacy.
The key to a successful Chinese invasion then would be speed: if they could invade and subdue Taiwan in a few days, and get purchase orders, cargo shipments and bank transfers back on track within a week, then that might well be a price they would be willing to pay.
I think I should point out that China and Taiwan are already moving toward unification. Sorry to disappoint those people waiting for the war to start, but there’s no need for China to shoot anything at Taiwan. At the rate they’re going, a Hong Kong-style unification(which is only what China wanted) isn’t out of the question in the foreseeable future.
I’m pretty sure they would settle for much less than a HK integration and in fact would have no choice otherwise the whole island would be seething as democracy is well established in Taiwan. Perhaps an EU style agreement would be the best option (if you look at the history of the EU it started with ECFA like agreements between recent enemies) although the Chinese would have to call it the Chinese union or something along those lines to get their ‘face’ quotient.
Maybe if the KMT play around with the system enough so they make it virtually impossible for the DPP to win power again. But it’s more than likely that the DPP will be in power again sooner rather than later. When that happens, the chance of political integration will drop to zero.
Actually it is out of the question, because there’s no reason for Taiwanese people to accept Beijing deciding who runs their island. It would require an established one party state in Taiwan to do that. It wouldn’t be enough to control the presidency and electorate, because there would be riots on the streets if it became clear they were being sold out.
It will not be Hong Kong style at all. The Chinese have stated Taiwan can keep its military, with no Chinese garrison, run domestic affairs themselves as well as many other aspects.
The Chinese are concerned with mainly foreign affairs.
