Peak Oil Theory : Is a global depression imminent?

I had an interesting discussion with a colleague at lunchtime who introduced me to the Peak Oil theory.

In layman’s terms (i.e. those I can understand) The theory is that the health of the world’s economy is related to an progressive increase in oil production.
In other words, as long as oil production is on the increase, it’s better for the economy.

According to the theory and predictions by those that support it, we are nearing peak oil production, and if so, this will result in a massive global recession, which may resemble the great depression of the 30s, but last longer.

I have been pondering the notion that a depression may be around the corner as a direct result of the property frenzy of recent years combined with unprecedented borrowing to support the bubble. Times are uncertain, and my feeling is that stability in the economy is reducing.
So, hearing about this Peak Oil theory is something I find interesting.

Here is the wiki on the Peak Oil Theory. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_Oil

Any comments?

Mexico. The Stans. South America. Angola. Spratlys.

Peak oil in the Middle East? Probably, which is why they strive to keep the price high.

The 80$ a barrel scare is over. If it were really a concern, oil would be a 100$/barrel. I watch the price and ignore the news. The market doesn’t get scared; people do. And the market will reflect reality 9 times out of 10.

Do you honestly believe a 2-3 year surge is about all we can expect in the big picture?

Time to buy some full-spectrum lights, I guess.

Spending too much time plaing with the ‘koskidz’ or in dummiesunderground territory?..tsk tsk tsk…:laughing:

This is and has been a hot topic for quite a while. I don’t think anyone really has the final word on whether or not “peak oil” has arrived…or when it will.

Here is a view that has recently gained steam:
Despite popular belief, the world is not running out of oil, UW scientist says

An intelligent perspective devoid of ‘conspiracy blame’ hogwash.

A huge proportion of the world’s oil is used by the US of A. In their cars.
The US of A has responded by forming bi-lateral agreements with Mexico so that they can develop fuel-cell cars in their neighbours relatively cheaper borders. Honda are leading exponents of this technology.

Plus, they pay out billions of dollars each year in research into finding possible oil rich deposits.

It’s gonna be ok. Once the Americans stop guzzling gas things will settle down.

[quote=“TainanCowboy”]Spending too much time plaing with the ‘koskidz’ or in dummiesunderground territory?..tsk tsk tsk…:laughing:

This is and has been a hot topic for quite a while. I don’t think anyone really has the final word on whether or not “peak oil” has arrived…or when it will.

Here is a view that has recently gained steam:
Despite popular belief, the world is not running out of oil, UW scientist says

An intelligent perspective devoid of ‘conspiracy blame’ hogwash.[/quote]
Surely you are trying to bait me. This ‘UW scientist’ goes by the name ‘Cheney’. Guess what, he’s the nephew of a better known Cheney, who is a Dick.

What a surprise.

[quote=“Truant”][quote=“TainanCowboy”]Spending too much time plaing with the ‘koskidz’ or in dummiesunderground territory?..tsk tsk tsk…:laughing:

This is and has been a hot topic for quite a while. I don’t think anyone really has the final word on whether or not “peak oil” has arrived…or when it will.

Here is a view that has recently gained steam:
Despite popular belief, the world is not running out of oil, UW scientist says

An intelligent perspective devoid of ‘conspiracy blame’ hogwash.[/quote]
Surely you are trying to bait me. This ‘UW scientist’ goes by the name ‘Cheney’. Guess what, he’s the nephew of a better known Cheney, who is a Dick.

What a surprise.[/quote]

Dick doubts global warming. So he won’t be likely to acknowledge that oil depletion is real.

[quote=“Truant”]Surely you are trying to bait me. This ‘UW scientist’ goes by the name ‘Cheney’. Guess what, he’s the nephew of a better known Cheney, who is a Dick.

What a surprise.[/quote]

:roflmao: I guess some posters don’t want to be taken seriously.

[quote=“TomHill”]A huge proportion of the world’s oil is used by the US of A. In their cars.
The US of A has responded by forming bi-lateral agreements with Mexico so that they can develop fuel-cell cars in their neighbours relatively cheaper borders. Honda are leading exponents of this technology.
Plus, they pay out billions of dollars each year in research into finding possible oil rich deposits.
It’s gonna be ok. Once the Americans stop guzzling gas things will settle down.[/quote]
Hey Man…Wow…is someone blaming America again?

Uhh…no. I actually thought you wanted some information about the various opinions regarding “Peak Oil.” I did not think that the gentlemans name would cause you to have such a reaction to his hypothesis.
It appears I was mistaken.

Do you honestly believe a 2-3 year surge is about all we can expect in the big picture?[/quote]

The thing about commodities like oil is that when the price is high, more people drill for it, because, well, they’ll make a bundle. A LOT of people are drilling new wells these days, oil and natural gas. What happens then, in the cycle is that so many people are drilling and discovering it that a glut develops, sending the price down.

I think oil could easily hit 80$ again, or even 100$ (owning a NG driller company, I wish it would) but it won’t stay there forever. It isn’t that the USA doesn’t give a shit about the amount of oil they use; that’s not important. That the market doesn’t give a shit says more. THOSE guys know what’s up. If oil could or should be at 100$ a barrel, I’m certain it would be.

[quote=“TainanCowboy”][quote=“TomHill”]A huge proportion of the world’s oil is used by the US of A. In their cars.
The US of A has responded by forming bi-lateral agreements with Mexico so that they can develop fuel-cell cars in their neighbours relatively cheaper borders. Honda are leading exponents of this technology.
Plus, they pay out billions of dollars each year in research into finding possible oil rich deposits.
It’s gonna be ok. Once the Americans stop guzzling gas things will settle down.[/quote]
Hey Man…Wow…is someone blaming America again?

Uhh…no. I actually thought you wanted some information about the various opinions regarding “Peak Oil.” I did not think that the gentlemans name would cause you to have such a reaction to his hypothesis.
It appears I was mistaken.[/quote]

Hello, little man in a box. Yes, I am saying that America is one of the world’s leading consumers of oil, and that is because of their love of gas guzzling cars. The biggest selling car in the world is some off-road jobby that eats petrol, and is only sold in the US of A. How many are sold? Approx. 1 PER SECOND!
That is not America bashing. That is fact stating. America uses some 22 million barrels of oil per day. It’s closest rival is China, using some 7 million per day. Big difference. America uses, per day, more oil than China, Japan, Germany, Russia, India and Canada COMBINED. So I think my little fact can stand.

How is the box?

Do you honestly believe a 2-3 year surge is about all we can expect in the big picture?[/quote]

The thing about commodities like oil is that when the price is high, more people drill for it, because, well, they’ll make a bundle. A LOT of people are drilling new wells these days, oil and natural gas. What happens then, in the cycle is that so many people are drilling and discovering it that a gut develops, sending the price down.

I think oil could easily hit 80$ again, or even 100$ (owning a NG driller company, I wish it would) but it won’t stay there forever. It isn’t that the USA doesn’t give a shit about the amount of oil they use; that’s not important. That the market doesn’t give a shit says more. THOSE guys know what’s up. If oil could or should be at 100$ a barrel, I’m certain it would be.[/quote]

WE determine oil prices, not OPEC, not countries. Oil producers behave exactly like producers in any other industry. When inventories are low and prices are high, they produce more. When inventories are high and prices are low, they produce less. Whats to understand?

[quote]
When inventories are high and prices are low, they produce less[/quote]

Isn’t that what I said?

I suppose the problem with oil is whether or not you believe the WORLD is at peak oil or just certain locations.

Isn’t the Toyota Camry the best selling car in the US right now? What off road jobby are you talking about?

[quote=“jdsmith”][quote]
When inventories are high and prices are low, they produce less[/quote]

Isn’t that what I said?
I suppose the problem with oil is whether or not you believe the WORLD is at peak oil or just certain locations.[/quote]

Sorry, my stupidity is boundless. I read it wrong.

Uhh…no. I actually thought you wanted some information about the various opinions regarding “Peak Oil.” I did not think that the gentlemans name would cause you to have such a reaction to his hypothesis.
It appears I was mistaken.[/quote]
well, geez man, it’s bloody interesting that in a discussion about oil consumption, you happen to bring politics into it by the 2nd line, by quoting a ‘scientific’ source who is related to the very man who has a major interest in Halliburton and benefits the most by the US being in Iraq, which just happens to be an oil rich nation.
There’s a conflict of interest don’t ya think? Or do you believe that is an truely objective scientific opinion there by Cheney Jnr?

The FORD F-series Pick-up. forbes.com/lifestyle/vehicle … 2feat.html

One per second, baby! autos.msn.com/advice/article.asp … id=4023925

It’s true that I talk a lot of crap, but sometimes, just sometimes, and often in matters of business and economics, I do know my stuff.

Even if correct the sale of one individual model does probably not compare to (outweight) the total amount of SUVs sold. Fact is Americans like big, gas-guzzling SUVs. Last year when gas prices peaked around $3 Americans started looking for smaller vehicles with less consumption, now that prices have fallen they buy SUVs again:

SUV Sales Soar

Hybrid Hypocrisy

AFAIK passenger cars account for 40% of the US’ oil consumption.

Fortunately we wont be hostage to oil forever. Solar power is small now but getting bigger. By 2012 electricity from solar cells made by companies such as sunpower will cost 12 US cents to 15 US cents per kilowatt hr and will be competitive with power from the grid. Companies like Google, Microsoft, GE are putting solar cells o their roofs. The world economy has been hostage to middle east oil for only a relatively short period of time. If by 2012 we can get power from other green sources we can forget about the middle east and let the good folks there sort out their problems on their own. :sunglasses: