Planes but no missiles?

I think Jane’s Defense Weekly is a pretty reliable source of military information, but I saw this article in the Taipei Times.

taipeitimes.com/News/edit/ar … 2003256559

Planes, but no munitions?

It was my (mistaken?) impression that 5+ years ago, Taiwan was strong enough militarily to hold off China and that now with China’s increasing military might Taiwan was only hope was to hold off China for 2 weeks while the rest of the world rallies.

But according to this article, Taiwan would be done in 2 days due to a lack in munitions?

is the pooch screwed?

Mr. Minnick and Janes are spot on with their analysis of Taiwans defense capabilities.

There have been a couple of other threads discussing some of Mr. Minnicks previous articles about this subject.

That article raises some good points, but the author is also fudging things a bit.

By mentioning the F-5s with the F-16s, the author gives the impression that the F-5s use the same missiles as the F-16. That is not true. ROCAF F-5s have never used the Sparrow and are completely incapable of using the AMRAAM. The only jets that will use the AMRAAMs or Sparrows are the F-16s. Keep in mind, also, that quite a lot of the ROCAF’s F-16s are for attrition. That’s probably being too polite. In reality, they just don’t have enough proficient pilots. News articles in the past have stated that the ROCAF only has 70 or 80 truly war ready F-16 pilots. In the even of war, you could probably cut that number down further. If we guess that the ROCAF could put 30 F-16s in the air at one time (which may the most they could control) and have an equal number of pilots/planes on the ground preparing for flight, then 720 medium range missiles for 60 aircraft is not especially bad, though certainly not good.

This is where he’s starting to stretch things a bit. When the ROCAF got the Mirages, they also took delivery of 960 Micas. That’s 16 medium range missiles for each Mirage in inventory. The Mica is a lot better than the Sparrow and there would probably be less wastage. The ROCAF also took a pretty large delivery of Magic IIs, so the Mirages would be pretty well armed.

This is getting a bit nonsensical. The author is treating the Taiwanese as if they are complete idiots. There are very good reasons for why they only bought 120 AMRAAMs. First, they already have a fairly good stock of Sparrows and Micas. They’ve also been developing the Sky Sword II and have been arming the IDFs with them. The ROCAF’s decision to not buy more AMRAAMs has probably been influenced by the following:
a.) The only aircraft in the inventory that can use them is the F-16.
b.) While the AMRAAM is clearly a superior missile, the Sparrows in ROCAF inventory are the newest model and are still highly effective weapons.
c.) In the event of war, it is the Mirages and their Micas that will be called on first to handle outer range engagements, not the F-16s. The role of the Mirages was decided long before Taiwan was allowed to buy AMRAAMs.
d.) Taiwan has been developing the Sky Sword II for a long time. It is already operational with the IDF. While it is probably not as good as the AMRAAM, it is certainly in that class of missiles. The benefit of developing the Sky Sword II is that they can make a missile that is useable on both the IDF and the F-16, and perhaps even the Mirage if they shoot up all the Micas.

[quote]One common belief is that the Ministry of National Defense prioritizes the procurement of platforms, such as aircraft, with minimal purchases of logistics support and munitions in order to save money.
[/quote]
There’s a bit of truth in this, but this is mostly bullshit. The author is ignoring the restrictions that the ROCAF has to shop under. One-off deals for batches of fighter jets are difficult to arrange, but once such deals have been made, they have stuck no matter how loudly the PRC has bitched. Logistics support, repair parts and refills for spent missiles are different. Missiles have a use by date. The airforce can’t just buy a couple of thousand along with the fighters and hope to keep them all useable for twenty years. The USAF and Navy used the AMRAAM and a few versions of the Sparrow alongside each other for quite a few years. Stocks aren’t replaced with the newer version until they have flown their maximum number of sorties or are decided to be too old. The USAF did not just suddenly decide that it was going to switch everything over to the AMRAAM and then make the conversion in a couple of years. It took damn near a decade.

I imagine that at the time the deal for the AMRAAMs was done, some of the folks in the MoD decided that they would be better off just buying enough of them to use as a stopgap until a domestically produced substitute could be brought into service. Why would they commit to a foreign produced missile if the future supply of that missile is in doubt? Say what you like about the ineptitude of the ROC military, but local industry has had measurable success in the development of the IDF and a few models of missiles.

[quote] This is why Taiwan also needs additional ALE-50 towed radar decoys. Taiwan has refused to procure an operationally useful number of these decoys. To date they have ordered less decoys than would last one full day if a war started.

Taiwan needs two launcher controllers per 150 F-16s (300 in total). The decoys are not reusable, so in a shooting war, assume there are 1.5 decoys per sortie, multiply that by 100 aircraft flying two sorties per day, then multiply that again by 10 days of fighting, and you have 3,000 decoys.

Taiwan has purchased less than 5 percent of that number of decoys, and only 56 of the launcher controllers. The ALE-50 goes a long way in ensuring the survivability of the F-16 against China’s missiles.
[/quote]
More stretching. The ALE-50 is a countermeasure used for avoiding SAMs. Considering that the ROCAF has no comprehensive strategy for striking the mainland, there is no good reason to stock up on these sorts of countermeasures. If you look at the inventory numbers for all of the ROCAF’s air to ground weapons, it is pretty clear that it is just there for limited strikes if not just a token deterrent. Other than the pilots who go to Luke AFB, ROC pilots just don’t do much training for air to ground. The problem is not that the ROCAF hasn’t bought the hardware it needs for its strategy. The problem is that for political and financial reasons, the MoD has decided not to openly (or perhaps not at all) prepare for striking the mainland.

As far as I know, this is completely false. Not long ago, there were news articles reporting that a deal had been made to renew the training program from 2006 onward. I searched the internet and could find nothing reporting that the ROCAF was leaving Luke AFB.

Some more recent developments as reported over this past week-end[quote]Japan to station advanced fighters on Okinawa
BULKING UP: The move to put 24 advanced F-15J fighters on the island would give a significant boost to Japan’s ability to respond to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait
By Mac William Bishop, STAFF REPORTER , WITH REUTERS
Sunday, May 29, 2005,Page 1

Japan will deploy several of its most advanced fighter aircraft to Okinawa in response to the increasing military threat from China, a newspaper said yesterday, while a Japanese official confirmed the plans.

The deployment of two dozen F-15J Eagle fighters to Japan’s southernmost prefecture – which at its nearest point is only 180km away from Taiwan – will be completed by the end of 2009, the Japanese-language daily Sankei Shimbun reported yesterday. The presence of F-15Js on Okinawa would significantly increase Japanese military capabilities in the Taiwan Strait.

Currently, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), Japan’s air force, maintains 24 F-4EJ Phantom fighters in the 302nd Fighter Squadron, 83rd Air Wing at a base in Naha City, the prefectural capital. The base is located next to Naha International Airport.

A Japanese defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the deployment plans. He acknowledged that the situation in the Taiwan Strait “concerned” Tokyo, but had no comment on whether the move was meant to send a signal to Beijing.

Tokyo has recently begun to take an increasingly hard-line approach toward China regarding the Taiwan Strait. In February, the US and Japan for the first time publicly dubbed the Taiwan Strait an area of “mutual concern.”

Hawks in Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), have been even more blunt.

“It would be wrong for us to send a signal to China that the US and Japan will watch and tolerate a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan,” LDP Secretary-General Shinzo Abe said in February.

Also, in its “2005 National Defense Program Guideline,” the Japanese Cabinet said "a number of countries are pouring in efforts to modernize their military forces. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is unpredictable and cross-Taiwan Strait relations remain uncertain."b[/b]
taipeitimes.com/News/front/a … 2003257037[/quote]
and also…

[quote]Coast guard forces Chinese ship away
INTRUSION: A Chinese research vessel, which the president said was probably used to gather intelligence, was forced to leave Taiwanese waters by patrol boats
By Rich Chang, STAFF REPORTER
Sunday, May 29, 2005,Page 1

The coast guard forced a Chinese research ship, the Fen Dou No.4 (奮鬥四號) to leave Taiwanese waters yesterday morning, after the vessel intruded into Taiwan’s territory twice in seven days.

“Chinese research vessels have recently infringed on the boundaries of Taiwan’s exclusive economic maritime zone under the guise of oceanic surveys, but they may be trying to acquire military intelligence,” President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) said yesterday, as he watched an anti-terrorism drill conducted by the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) in Kaohsiung.

“The intrusions not only violate the law, but they also have a bad influence on cross-strait ties,” Chen said.

Chen said he had asked the CGA to strengthen aerial and maritime patrols in Taiwan’s territory.

CGA Minister Shi Hwei-yow (許惠祐) yesterday said the Fan Dou No.4 was forced out of the waters south of Taiwan yesterday morning, and that two CGA vessels were stationed near the periphery of Taiwan’s maritime zone to prevent the vessel’s return.

He said “this is the third time this month that Chinese vessels have entered Taiwan’s territory. The recent frequent intrusions of Chinese research ships were seen as unfriendly actions.”

He added “the semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) had three times requested Chinese authorities recall the Fan Dou No.4, but it still stayed and refused to leave.”

The CGA discovered the Fen Dou No. 4 some 175km southwest of Kaohsiung on the morning of May 22. A CGA vessel and aircraft closed in on the ship to force its departure, but the vessel refused to move.

The CGA said another three Coast Guard vessels arrived at the spot on May 23 in an effort to force the ship to leave, and the ship stopped its operations and left on May 24.

The CGA said, however, that the vessel returned to the waters south of Taiwan on May 26 and conducted operations there.

The vessel was again forced to leave by the Coast Guard yesterday morning, Shi said.b[/b]
taipeitimes.com/News/front/a … 2003257033[/quote]
Although this last bit happens quite regularly. Sonar sounding for ‘oil explorations’ is also how ocen floor is mapped. Good info for subamarines to have.

Two comments regarding the recent developements Tainancowboy. Firstly on the issue of Japanese aircraft, they are mainly for posturing. As of now, Japan cannot legally deploy them for two reasons. 1) article 9 2) Japan has no defense agreements with Taiwan. For the aircraft to become a factor article 9 would first need to be removed, and secondly Japan would have to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state and enter into a military pact of some sort. Even the United States is technically not bound to come to Taiwan’s defence, the mutual defence pact was scrapped under the Carter administration only to be replaced by the Taiwan Relations act which only vaguely stipulates that the U.S. should supply neccessary defensive armaments as the president sees fit and that the president should consult congress in the advent of trouble. The aircraft on Okinawa cannot be be used at present because they violate the Japanese constitution. Secondly if they were used without a formal treaty between Japan and Taiwan against PRC forces, it would be an act of Japanese belligerency. Ironic isn’t it?

On the issue of those research vessels, they indeed likely regularly enter what Taiwan claims as it’s EEZ to conduct underwater mapping. Ocean currents and major weather conditions, e.g. typhoons, will periodically change the layout of the ocean floor. Thus the neccessity to update maps on navigational hazards on the seabeds every 6 months or so. The ships are conducting oceanic surveys, it just happens to be that the information is dual-use and can be used in civil and military applications. The Taipei Times, along with Chen Shui Bian seem to taking one too many hits from the beer bong. Taiwan has no EEZ and those Chinese research vessels are technically not tresspassing under either PRC, or International Law. EEZ claims are laid out in the conventions of the UN Law of the Sea, a treaty that Taiwan is not a signatory to. Most maritime nations are with a few noteable exceptions, such as the U.S., Thailand, and a few others I believe. Not only is Taiwan not a signatory, but China is, and the UN recognizes Taiwan(as does everyone else but a few hold outs) as being part of China. Taiwan’s “EEZ” would therefor stand to reason belong to the PRC.

[quote=“cmdjing”]Two comments regarding the recent developements Tainancowboy. Firstly on the issue of Japanese aircraft, they are mainly for posturing. As of now, Japan cannot legally deploy them for two reasons. 1) article 9 2) Japan has no defense agreements with Taiwan. For the aircraft to become a factor article 9 would first need to be removed, and secondly Japan would have to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state and enter into a military pact of some sort. Even the United States is technically not bound to come to Taiwan’s defence, the mutual defence pact was scrapped under the Carter administration only to be replaced by the Taiwan Relations act which only vaguely stipulates that the U.S. should supply neccessary defensive armaments as the president sees fit and that the president should consult congress in the advent of trouble. The aircraft on Okinawa cannot be be used at present because they violate the Japanese constitution. Secondly if they were used without a formal treaty between Japan and Taiwan against PRC forces, it would be an act of Japanese belligerency. Ironic isn’t it?

On the issue of those research vessels, they indeed likely regularly enter what Taiwan claims as it’s EEZ to conduct underwater mapping. Ocean currents and major weather conditions, e.g. typhoons, will periodically change the layout of the ocean floor. Thus the neccessity to update maps on navigational hazards on the seabeds every 6 months or so. The ships are conducting oceanic surveys, it just happens to be that the information is dual-use and can be used in civil and military applications. The Taipei Times, along with Chen Shuibian seem to taking one too many hits from the beer bong. Taiwan has no EEZ and those Chinese research vessels are technically not tresspassing under either PRC, or International Law. EEZ claims are laid out in the conventions of the UN Law of the Sea, a treaty that Taiwan is not a signatory to. Most maritime nations are with a few noteable exceptions, such as the U.S., Thailand, and a few others I believe. Not only is Taiwan not a signatory, but China is, and the UN recognizes Taiwan(as does everyone else but a few hold outs) as being part of China. Taiwan’s “EEZ” would therefor stand to reason belong to the PRC.[/quote]

Except for the fact that Chinese vessels get turned away regularly anyway. Interesting argument, but we all know that much beauracracy will not be necessary for the US or Japan to comes to Taiwan’s aid, as the US has 3 times before in history.

Interesting observations, but I wonder how Japanese law would be interpreted if war for Taiwan became a reality. It seems pretty clear to me that under Japan’s own present laws, the Japanese airforce would be prohibited from basing those F-15s on Taiwan. However, Okinawa is close enough that depending on how a conflict were to unfold, Japan could possibly involve its forces through a creative interpretation of its own laws. They don’t necessarily have to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state; they can just say they are protecting their own sea lanes from being cut off or some other half truth. Those F-15s could still get involved if they were just based at Okinawa, especially if they tank in and out of the area. Okinawa is not that far away. I imagine that they would commit their air force to maintaining air superiority over the waters north and northeast of Taiwan, but not actually get involved in the air space above Taiwan. It seems to me that as long as they limit themselves to action over the ocean, then there is plenty of room for fudging of their own laws.

I think a more realistic interpretation of their move is that they are just doing it to ensure that the USAF will be able to operate safely from Okinawa to protect Taiwan (if it chooses to do so). The USAF could act offensively while the Japanese air force protects the roost.