Polls and Predictions for the EC totals in the 2004 election

I predict: 290 Kerry / 248 Bush

…although I hope there will be more of a gap as repudiation of Bush’s disaster years. Will be interesting to see how many Republicans vote against Bush. Democratic blogs are full of annecdotal accounts of Republicans pledging support for Kerry-and expressing disgust in Bush’s deficit spending, corrupt and poorly managed policies, and cultivation of fear & enmity.

Battleground states for Kerry:
New Mexico Arkansas / Iowa / Minnesota / Ohio / Pennsylvania / Illinois / Wisconsin / New Hampshire / New Jersey / Maine / Oregon

Battleground states for Bush:
Arizona/Nevada/Florida (cheating Jeb)/Missouri/Virginia

Seems that the trend is pointing to a Kerry win, barring any sudden October surprise from Rove. It’s probably going to be close, and decided in the battleground states. Bush is getting well under 50 on many polls, and with undecideds breaking to Kerry, it looks like Kerry’s to win. Turnout will be key, but I’m sure the Republicans will fight it all the way to the supreme court if close or at all possible.

An example is Ohio (which remains close, even though Bush flubbed the coutsourced employment question in the third debate):
Ohio Bush Kerry Other Und
ABC News 47% 50% 2% 1%
SurveyUSA 47% 49% 2% 1%
Rasmussen Reports 47% 47% 3% 2%
Fox/Opinion Dynamics 47% 45% 3% 5%
Ohio Poll 46% 48% 1% 5%

Here are some useful links (I tend to disbelieve the large media network (Fox/CNN/Newsweek/MSNBC) polls, because they are clearly biased towards BC-I still remember shortly after 2000 inauguration, CNN producers visited the White House to pledge allegience and soft questioning):
mysterypollster.com/main/200 … ent_r.html
latimes.com/news/politics/el … multimedia
realclearpolitics.com/Presid … CP_EC.html

That being the case, you can get good odds on Kerry right now at 52bet.com.
George W Bush 5-9
John Kerry 3-2
(Odds of the San Antonio Spurs winning the 2004/2005 NBA championship is 9-2.)

Any idea why none of the online gambling houses except for those in the UK are in favor of Kerry? My guess is that Kerry supporters are less likely to gamble, making the house pay more for Kerry bets.

I’ve heard a lot of people complaining about polls and how they are not what they used to be because young and affluent people don’t answer their cell phones. That will certainly skew your results dramatically.

thanks for the reply, and yep, I will check out the gambling sites for trends, and the futures one as well sometime. This election may be skewed bc of the young being unpollable, and also because Dems get a lot of first time voters/infrequent voters to the polls. Also, 30% of all votes cast will be on the extremely tamperable touchscreen voting systems (note to America-get a simple and safe voting method please!). However, I just wonder what Rove has up his sleeve.

Hope even posters like FS and Tigerman can write reasoned responses that do not attack the messenger for once.

Twocs-what’s your prediction? Note, I may change mine at a later date, closer to November 2.

I predict Kerry will win.


You evil stupid son of a ***** haha just could not resist that red flag waving in front of me not to attack the messenger for a change.

Well, I have no predictions right now. I am hopeful but also hopeful it you get my drift. Sometimes it take a Richard Nixon to do what a Lyndon Johnson could not, sometimes it takes a Bill Clinton to do what a Reagan could not. This has gotten me thinking about Iran and Syria. Who better to take them out (and who really to be best placed to need to prove himself by taking them out than John Kerry?) Anyway, that is just my little thought of the day. Always was an optimist though so there may be reason to celebrate on Nov. 3 and I hope that reason is Bush but if not, then I will adjust to the circumstances as will all good, loyal, patriotic Americans and lobby like hell to make sure that any Democrat president has his feet held to the fire. haha

Love Freddie

bush will win. democrats are pinning their hopes on the young first time cell-phone-using voters energized to finally cast a ballot. as kerry’s victory over dean showed, this is more fantasy than reality.

bush will take ohio and florida and the results will not be as close as in 2000.

if i’m wrong, i’m wrong. but this is my prediction as of today.

Has anyone seen odds or futures prices on the question of when the final results will be known? I wonder what the over/under would be on Thanksgiving, or maybe December 1…

How many people think that enough of the court proceedings and appeals will be finished that we’ll know who the winner is by the begining of December?

I think Bush will win. With Kerry’s flip flops and the early crackdown on voter fraud(barring Ohio and NM) I can easily see it going Bush’s way. The 72 hour program will be the final nail in the coffin.

This is by no means assured. The Ashley ads could backfire on the GOP. Massive voter fraud could still take place and Kerry and company are already to fight till the last man in a legal battle like no other for the presidency or in the history of the US. Teresa Heinz-Kerry could stop speaking publicly. :slight_smile: :loco:

The gambling odds are heavily tilted in Bush’s favor by a 16 point margin last time I checked. I’m kicking myself for not buying at 53 when I had a chance.


I’m going for a Bush victory in the popular vote and a Kerry victory in the EC. Where’s the ‘oh please oh please oh please’ emoticon?

Check out the Iowa Electronic Markets graph for an interesting approach to prediction. This is a real money market

My feeling is the race has narrowed considerably recently.

This is backed up in most polls.

Perhaps this is the undecideds finally making up their minds and deciding mostly for Kerry.

Bush can probably withstand the recent narrowing and still win, if its evenly distributed nationwide. Maybe. But if this trend is even slightly more evident in battleground states than in the nation as a whole, Kerry wins.

Recent polls in Ohio must be worrying Bush.

A tight one… Not really, as the electoral college system will guarantee that at least a clear majority forms there. The US should get rid of that - and use paper ballots like the rest of us.

Moreover, presidents who have presided over a recession usually lose. Last time this happened was for George Bush, but Jimmy Carter is also a prime example, along with the Mother of them all, a certain Mr. Herbert Hoover. My money are therefore on Kerry, and a 881 to George W.

Darn you Fredreich Schmidt, you evil computer virus! Couldn’t keep this thread clean could you?
Hehehe. I am actually impressed in the responses, and find it easy to read opinions on both sides of the fence on this thread-well done.

Here’s a couple of random things grabbed off daily kos, open thread:
EDIT-TO FLIPPER-I look many places, not only daily kos…I just liked this one last night because its blatant democratic bias gives some kernels of truth (as opposed to the cynicism and pro-repub bias on Fox)…besides, I selected the quotes below for their contrast to polls such as those by CNN/USAToday/Gallup.
The first quote about VA shows a slightly possible pickup for Kerry in a state not expected to be close. I don’t expect this to occur, but it’s interesting that there are Bush areas receptive to Kerry-a nationwide pattern, one hopes…
The second quote, a marist poll, obviously has a similar total to Zogby on the nationwide, yet for the battleground states is strongly for Kerry. That’s interesting, but not nearly sufficient-as you say, just one democratic leaning poll, and you really have to look at the battleground states individually.

VA…zogby has it at a 3 point race
Nader took almost 60,000 votes in VA in 2000. Nader isn’t on the ballot this year. Gore lost the state by ~220,000 votes. New voter registrations are up by ~237,000 between 2000 and 2004. They have a Dem governor who people like and respect. They have a GOTV drive in No. VA like we didn’t see in 2000. There are many colleges where the 18 - 22 vote could go Kerry’s way if they registered in VA.

MARIST POLL: Kerry 47, Bush 47, 5% undecided
In battleground states, it’s
Kerry 50, Bush 43

quoting the daily kos won’t lend your aruguments any weight. it’s one of the most partisan liberal blogs and to this day the guy still believes that the cbs memos are real. he has also told his readers to skew online polls in kerry’s favor. poll numbers from a site that made poll-rigging a plan of attack? far better to grab your numbers from somewhere that at least pretends to be impartial.

Wisconsin is the swing state that will determine the winner.

it moved away, then closed up again…and Kerry seems to have momentum with 6 days to go:

-see zogby/rasmussen/washington post numbers here:

and this:

And a quote off Daily Kos:

Listen to what Ronald Reagan’s former Sec. of the Navy has to say about Iraq and the way it has been prosecuted, etc.::::::

MATTHEWS: If you look down the road, do you see more of a manpower, rather a person power challenge facing us as we have all these different needs in the world with regard to South Korea, of course, defending against the potential nuclear development in the North? We have got the Iranian situation. We have got the Middle East. All these possibilities. Do we have a big enough Army?

WEBB: I would start from the other end of that. I would say yes, you may end up seeing problems, particularly in the Guard and reserve, where this is a second career.

But the starting point is the move into Iraq, separate all the political considerations aside, was a strategic blunder. And for us to have such a high percentage of our military tied down in essentially occupying and attempting to reconstruct a society of a nation is a very bad idea. And it absorbs people. And it not only absorb people when you think about enlistments and this sort of thing, it absorbs people from other areas around the world, so that we can`t pay proper attention to security concerns elsewhere.

MATTHEWS: Why do our leaders, starting with the president down, why did they not expect nationalistic resistance to an occupation in Iraq, when our whole history of the world tells us, expect people to resist occupation?

WEBB: You know, the sad thing is, there`s not a thing that has occurred in Iraq that was not only predictable but predicted. And predicted with good military advice to this administration.

MATTHEWS: Did ideology overwhelm military history here? Is that why we went in with such confidence?

WEBB: My view of it, when Vice President Cheney repeatedly says that the people who have questioned the war against Iraq don`t understand the post-9/11 world, my view is the complete reverse. The people who did this, this was on their to-do list when they got into the administration, and they did not…


WEBB: Cheney and the whole group that really put this together. They wanted this as a part of what was going to happen in the Bush administration. One way or the other, they were waiting for…

MATTHEWS: That`s why they joined, you could argue.

WEBB: And in my view, these people don`t understand the realities post-9/11. Post-9/11, this was a bad idea. Pre-9/11, I still would have opposed it, but at least it was an arguable idea.

MATTHEWS: Because–why is it more of a bad idea now since 9/11?

WEBB: Because international terrorism really moved in a dramatic way from a regional problem to a global problem. We saw that we had to step to the forefront. We had all the nations of the world with us after 9/11. And we systematically alienated a huge percentage of the world at a time we needed their cooperation. We tied down our military in static positions when we had developed, for 10 or 15 years, we had worked on a maneuverable military. And now we dumped them into static positions. So it is a bad idea in terms of international politics, a bad idea in terms of grand strategy, and a bad idea in how to use the military.

MATTHEWS: Did we dare the Arab world to take us on in Iraq? The young men of the Arab world? Did we say, go ahead, make our day, go ahead, step up to the plate, you got it?

WEBB: Clearly, it was the inevitable consequences of anyone who thought this through.

MATTHEWS: Like bring it on. That`s what the president said. And they did.

WEBB: And well, I think that by putting our people in Iraq, we certainly made them targets in a way that they wouldn`t have been if we were fighting the war against international terrorism from a position to maneuver.

Read entire transcript:::::::


according to abcnews, 9% of respondents say they’ve already voted and they voted 51% - 47% for bush:


not a great sign of things to come for kerry.

My predictions:

Bush victory, 289 or 309 electoral votes.
Republicans extend control of Senate with 53 (certain) to 55 (possible) seats, with South Dakota (Daschle) coming down to vote fraud on Indian reservations
Republicans increase control of House with +8 to +12 seats, largely due to redistricting in Texas

Sorry …I couldn’t find any spiffy downward plunging graphs…but for the best compilation of the polls…I always reccomend going to …

Real Clear Politics.com.

Non-partisan…just the facts.

EDIT: WTF happened to my graph at the top of the page, Bush @ 90%? OMG!

EDITED AGAIN SUNDAY: crazy data caused a spike of Bush up to 90% probable win…but they’ve erased the outlier and put the bloody green line back where it should be-below 30%.

here’s another spiffy graph, with a cool uptrend for Kerry: