Polls for the 2020 election?

Any reliable polls for the election? Every site I see is so biased one way or other.

ETToday I think has the most reliable polls. They consistently have the biggest sample sizes. Don’t seem to have a clear preference for any party either.

The amazing Frozen Garlic crunches and combines poll numbers, and comments on them regularly:

Enjoy!

Guy

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Nice one!
Thanks for sharing!

@Icon’s poll say Korean Fish for eight years, less if he makes a deal to sell out Taiwan to ChiComms

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I like to look at weighted aggregated polling analysis. There’s only one or two websites that does this for Taiwanese elections.

This one does it in a style similar to 2008’s FiveThirtyEight. They only got 2 wrong in the 2018 local election, which honestly is harder to predict.

They’ve stopped updating their 2019 prediction, and going to make that analysis public by the end of December. They have removed all previous 2020 election predictions for now.

This is their last prediction on November 24 for legislative seats.

Local Party List Total
國民黨 37(+2) 13(-2) 50( 0)
民進黨 39(-4) 13(+2) 52(-2)
民眾黨 0( 0) 4(-1) 4(-1)
時力黨 0( 0) 2(-1) 2(-1)
親民黨 0( 0) 0(+2) 2(+2)
無黨籍 3(--) -(--) 3(--)

Their final presidential prediction on November 25

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China said Han for 8 years.

So, a little update from the website I posted before

For a party to gain at least 1 party list seat, it is now estimated to require 628,552 votes.

That isn’t an easy thing for a smaller party to achieve. So,if the goal is to maximize seats from like-minded parties in the legislative yuan, you should either vote for one that has the highest polling number, or one that’s almost there.

From the latest polls, these are the results.

There are obviously 4 major parties that could pass the 5% thresholds. KMT and DPP are the obvious ones. TMD (TPP) and NPP are the next tier, with NPP on the brink of not passing 5%.

For me, as a pro-independence voter, my choice would be vote for the DPP, despite the fact that I do wish to vote for the Green party or the Taiwan Statebuilding Party (基進黨). They have far too low polling, and I don’t want my party list vote to be wasted.

As for the presidential race:

Tsai has a huge lead, but it all depends on the voting day turnout.

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Polls closing down now.For the next eleven days we’re cast adrift.

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The inimitable Nathan Batto at Frozen Garlic summarizes and analyzes the polls at the eve of the blackout. Lots of details in here figuring out how Tsai and Han do across regions, education level, age, etc. If you only read one thing on the polls this year, make it this!

Guy

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Korean Fish is innately undesirable. Tsai is marginally palatable, although Lai Ching-De is a moron, I am in the minority that realizes how his policies have brought FAR more harm than good. There’s no good outcome. Unless, perhaps, Soong. He hasn’t given up, give him that. And no ok signs. Blaaaah!

afterspivak

The inimitable Nathan Batto at Frozen Garlic summarizes and analyzes the polls at the eve of the blackout. Lots of details in here figuring out how Tsai and Han do across regions, education level, age, etc. If you only read one thing on the polls this year, make it this!

Yeah, good stuff

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The vote will break once Taipei Super Mayor proclaims his support for Han. Between that and the lack of voters going to vote for Tsai, well, we’ll be doomed.

I’m deeply worried about the Green and Taiwan Statebuilding Party not passing the 5% mark.

If they both pass the 5% mark, they’d each win 2 seats. That’s the most beneficial outcome for the pro-Taiwan camp.

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Where’s that Japanese guy who had han within 5 percentage points.

Polls are closed for the duration, but are there any other restrictions? I’ve already seen a couple of parades today (Sunday).

I use Wikipedia and it seems the polls it aggregates are fine

There looks to be a high chance of a DPP blowout

Sadly (probably only to me), Jimmy Soong ain’t getting much love. He and Lien would have won in 2004, but for an “assassination” attempt. Still know deep blue folk who claim proof that it was a set-up. Eg. a surgeon who removed the bullet.

阿扁/阿騙 aside, I’d be all green but for the problem which is 賴淸德 (“English” as Taiwan’s second official language!?!?!).

I didn’t realise it was the same James Soong- blast from the past! My wife was a Deep Blue Soong supporter going back to 2000, but has since switched to Han.
I remember him from his Provincial Governor days. Every week the China Daily had an ad from the provincial government with half a dozen pictures of him opening a bridge, school etc. Soong probably would have been not bad, but Lien Chan was a weasel.

And you are still with her?

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