Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

Looking aty who will fill the power vaccum in Libya a few groups appear to be poised for stepping into the void.
I just received a link to this article which lays out the background of the major contenders. No real surprises - although I expect a surprise to pop-up as things go along.

[quote]Gaddafi under siege: Two CIA-backed groups, an al-Qaeda-linked LIFG on top of power stakes
Daya Gamage – Asian Tribune Foreign News Desk, Washington, DC. 22 August

Abu Yahya al-Libi, once a leading operative of LIFG and now member of al Qaeda

With the imminent departure of Muammar Gaddafi from absolute power as the rebels are closing on Tripoli two CIA-backed Libyan groups and an al-Qaeda affiliated Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), a declared foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the US State Department since 2004, could emerge as real power in Libya when it is clear that the rebel military forces are a patchwork of armed groups, former soldiers and freelance militias including self-appointed neighborhood gangs.

The main rebel group, based in Benghazi in the country’s east, consists of former government ministers who have defected, and longstanding opposition figures, representing a range of political views including Arab nationalists, Islamists, secularists, socialists and businessmen.

With the fall of Gaddafi’s 42-year rule the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL), the Libyan National Army (LNA), military wing of the NFSL and Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) are likely to emerge to become the real power behind any administration in post-Gaddafi Libya.

Groups who had been organizing against Gadhafi for years are at least partly responsible for provoking the protests which started last February. The composition of forces opposing Gadhafi consists of a wide range of groups of people each with their own agenda but whose common purpose is his overthrow.

Some of these groups formed the National Transitional Council (TNC) in Benghazi on February 27, 2011 to act as the political face of the revolution. Politicians, former military officers, tribal leaders, academics and businessmen from Eastern Libya created the Council to serve as a transitional government and to wrap the opposition in an aura of respectability.

But the three well organized movements are the NFSL, its military arm LNA and the Islamist LIFG.

The National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL) established on October 7, 1981, was trained and supported by the CIA and was involved in an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Gadhafi on May 8, 1984.

The Libyan National Army (LNA), military wing of the NFSL, was founded on June 21, 1988 by Khalifa Hafter who, according to a Washington-based think tank, the Jamestown Foundation, had: “strong backing from the Central Intelligence agency”. The think tank also reports that the CIA arranged the entry of LNA officers into the United States where they established a training camp. Hafter arrived in Benghazi in March 2011 to join the forces attempting to overthrow Gadhafi.

Another major organization engaged in overthrowing Gadhafi is the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) which has close ties to al Qaida and has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the US State Department in 2004. The LIFG was established in 1995 to oppose Gadhafi’s secular state by Libyans who had fought in Afghanistan. They have been committed to supporting jihadi groups everywhere and contributed a significant number of people to fight the U.S. in Iraq.

The LIFG appeared to be largely defunct by the mid-2000s, until documents captured in Sinjar, Iraq by Coalition Forces showed that over 100 Libyans from LIFG strongholds in eastern Libya had joined al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) between 2006 and 2007…(more at link)[/quote]

CIA, al Queda, the Muslim Brotherhood…its going to be one hell of a picnic (read - shooting match) sorting this out.

Yep, This situation has always been a WTF, what on earth makes people think the outcome of this “war” is going to result in a better situation for the people of Libya? (Unless you consider taliban’esque leadership a step forward, I never know on this forum).

The probability of oppressive dictatorship given Gaddafi: 100%.
The probability of oppressive dictatorship after Gaddafi: less than 100%.

Better the unknown you don’t know than the devil you do know.

Now … it’s time to move on to Syria …

[quote=“Chris”]The probability of oppressive dictatorship given Gaddafi: 100%.
The probability of oppressive dictatorship after Gaddafi: less than 100%.

Better the unknown you don’t know than the devil you do know.[/quote]

:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: Actually Chris, The proper saying is; “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know”. :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

But, don’t let reality get in the way.

BTW, is there an unknown that you do know?

Admit it, you’re really a closet Republican aren’t you?

[quote=“TainanCowboy”]Looking aty who will fill the power vaccum in Libya a few groups appear to be poised for stepping into the void.
I just received a link to this article which lays out the background of the major contenders. No real surprises - although I expect a surprise to pop-up as things go along.

[quote]Gaddafi under siege: Two CIA-backed groups, an al-Qaeda-linked LIFG on top of power stakes
Daya Gamage – Asian Tribune Foreign News Desk, Washington, DC. 22 August

Abu Yahya al-Libi, once a leading operative of LIFG and now member of al Qaeda

Now he is definitely a closet Zionist!! :slight_smile:

Once Gaddaffi goes you will really see a bodycount that Duke Nuken could not hope to rival. The new regime will make Gaddaffi look like a teddy bear if this guy is what is coming next.

[quote=“Gman”][quote=“Chris”]The probability of oppressive dictatorship given Gaddafi: 100%.
The probability of oppressive dictatorship after Gaddafi: less than 100%.

Better the unknown you don’t know than the devil you do know.[/quote]

:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: Actually Chris, The proper saying is; “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know”. :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao: [/quote]
Of course I know the saying. But it’s nonsensical, mathematically speaking. It’s a form of thinking that keeps tyrants in power.

Sure you know the proper saying :unamused:. Even if I grant you that you know the saying, It is clear you don’t understand it’s proper meaning or use. It’s not a saying that is limited to tyrants in power. The saying is general in nature about having to choose between two bad choices. It is not ‘nonsense’ and you saying so just reinforces the fact that you don’t know the saying or its proper use. Although it’s not a mathematical expression, so yes, from a mathematical perspective it is nonsense. But, we aren’t discussing math.

Regardless, what you propose is stilly. The premise that replacing a tyrant you do know with one you don’t know is preferable, is just plain dumb. Even if you merely replace one tyrant with one that is the same or only 95% as bad. It is still not preferable due to all the destruction and loss of life associated with the transition.

Time will tell if this was a good thing or not. And, time will tell whether Western intervention was a good thing or not. I’m afraid history is against you though.

I predict a long, bloody civil war where everybody gets killed. All the people with fight in them get killed. The peaceful people hiding in their homes get taken over by Taliban rule. Taliban rule lasts 1,000,000.000 years. I’m an optimist.

It’s more trouble than Pacheco’s pig. Be that as it may, I’m not saying it’s good, I’m not saying it’s bad. Let’s just wait and see what happens.

An analysis from STRATFOR - (its a pay site so I will post in entirety for those interested)

[quote]Libyan Rebels’ Immediate Security Concerns
August 22, 2011

Summary

Since Libyan National Transitional Council forces entered the capital city, the council’s two top officials have issued statements to remind the rebels that victory is not assured. Though the rebel council has announced the end of the Moammar Gadhafi era, it also continues to warn that areas of Tripoli remain unpacified, loyalist strongholds remain in the cities of Sirte and Sabha, and some loyalist forces could be on their way to the capital from the city of Zlitan.

Analysis

Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, head of Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), and the other top-ranking NTC official, Mahmoud Jibril, have issued several statements since NTC forces entered the city of Tripoli on Aug. 21. The leaders’ statements were meant to temper the behavior of the rebels, who feel victory is at hand, and allay international concerns that Libya could soon descend into chaos. The NTC also wants to assure residents of areas that were until recently under Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s control that NTC forces mean them no harm. Re-establishing security is the NTC’s main goal, but obstacles remain.

Gadhafi’s remaining forces will continue fighting. Abdel-Jalil said Aug. 22 that the Gadhafi era was over and that the rebels control almost all of Tripoli. However, he conceded that the Gadhafi compound at Bab al-Aziziya “and the surrounding areas” remain unpacified. The NTC has admitted that the fight is not over — not only in Tripoli but in other areas of the country as well.

Jibril warned Aug. 22 that the rebels needed to be aware that some of Gadhafi’s forces were approaching from the east. This was likely in reference to the forces that have been holding the line at Zlitan for several weeks in the face of a westward advance by Misurata-based rebels. During the simultaneous move toward the capital from Zawiya on Aug. 21, the Misurata rebels were able to push Gadhafi’s men out of Zlitan but did not advance much farther west than that. With the capital under siege and Tripoli’s eastern districts experiencing a rash of uprisings, the NTC is concerned that the loyalist forces previously in Zlitan will return to the capital to fight.

Most of Libya is under NTC control, but Gadhafi strongholds remain in Sirte and the Fezzan Desert city of Sabha. Abdel-Jalil addressed this issue directly in an Aug. 22 interview. Sirte is Gadhafi’s hometown and, like Sabha, is a bastion of the Gadhafi tribe, which has relied upon the Libyan leader’s reign for its privileged position. These likely will be the last groups of loyalists to surrender. Abdel-Jalil acknowledged that these areas remain unpacified and voiced an expectation that the inhabitants of both cities would “rise up from within” as the regime’s position continues to weaken. Later in the day, he claimed that Sirte was under siege, while Al Jazeera reported that electricity to the city had been cut and communications disrupted. Multiple senior Gadhafi officials have reportedly taken refuge in Sirte.

According to varying reports from rebel fighters in Tripoli and also Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, Gadhafi’s forces retain control of 10-20 percent of Tripoli. The exact amount of territory under loyalist control is almost as much of a mystery as what became of the Libyan army’s Khamis Brigade. Commanded by Gadhafi’s son Khamis, the brigade purportedly was the strongest line of defense protecting the capital, yet on Aug. 21 the forces put up almost no resistance as rebels pushed eastward from Zawiya. An Aug. 22 Al Arabiya report claimed that Khamis Gadhafi was leading the brigade from the Gadhafi compound at Bab al-Aziziya into central Tripoli, though this was never confirmed, nor was an Al Jazeera report that his corpse had been discovered alongside the body of Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senoussi in Tripoli. Khamis’ whereabouts, like those of his father and several other brothers, are unclear.

It is possible that the most highly trained Libyan soldiers in Tripoli have retreated to entrenched urban positions from which they plan to conduct an urban insurgency. Were this to happen, it would be very difficult for NTC forces to pacify them, as the Gadhafi forces have access to large amounts of heavy weaponry and know the city’s terrain. But an insurgency in Tripoli likely would not duplicate what happened in Iraq after the U.S. invasion; Tripoli has no deep lines of supply, like those that ran into Iraq via the Iranian and Syrian borders, and there is no foreign occupier to use as a point to rally massive numbers of people.

So rather than an Iraqi-style insurgency, perhaps a bigger concern is that the situation in Libya could become similar to those seen after the overthrow of the regimes in Somalia in 1991 and Afghanistan in 1992. In those cases, the factions that took down the incumbent governments began fighting with one another — and some of the remnants of the former regimes — in a free-for-all battle for control after failing to agree on a power-sharing formula.[/quote]

I, personally, think its less than genuine to refer to this as a “rebellion” or “internal struggle.” The influence of outside actors has been paramount in this conflict. London, Paris, Damascus, Tehran, Langley…hell, probably several more have been the impetus both in $$$s, equipment, intel, logistics and friggin cheer-leading.
I look for a ‘cleansing action’ following this with many, if not most, of the lead actors being removed to make way for the designated leaders to assume their positions.
These things have a way of going…mostly…according to script.

:2cents:

Well, someone in IP could be optimistic for once! I expect they’ll end up with a civilised, peaceful society like the U.K. Umm… :ohreally: :ponder:

I don’t think there can be any script in a country as complex as Libya. Just not possible. Look at the conflicting information and chaos from Tripoli at the moment. In the end if the Libyan people desire a democratic stable government enough things might work out. I’m hopeful that the mistakes of Iraq can mostly be prevented and rationality will prevail.

The usual script ensues.

Libya will become a basket case. From having free healthcare and education and being one of the best places to live in Africa (literacy rate of 88%, UN human development indicator puts it at 53 in the world, above Brazil and Ukraine) it will fall to its knees.
The corporations/banksters as always will welcome it. Everything will be broken up for the market and the Libyans will own virtually nothing.
The IMF/World Bank (who this week offered their help) enter and the country will be in debt and forever screwed.

Arms sales will increase. Contracts for ‘rebuilding’ will be awarded to groups who have lobbyists in (western) governments who push for such wars. These companies rarely do what they say they will do. e.g. Parsons were awarded $186 million to build 142 health clinics in Iraq. They built 6.
Oil contracts will be signed (see the map below).

Security companies will move in and make billions. Democracy consultancy is another sham they have nowadays.

It’s the same old same old. Doesn’t matter if it’s Bush or Obama reading the teleprompter, you get the same old crap.
And the taxpayers pay for it and never get a return. The government borrow the money off the banksters who charge interest. The money goes to arms companies etc (offshore and pay no taxes no doubt). Meanwhile the governments say they have to make cutbacks and we have to make cut backs as there is no money.

It’s a big scam. Mafioso in all but name.

“War is a racket”. Maj Gen. Smedley Butler 1933.

Vote for change - vote Ron Paul.

[quote=“cake”]The usual script ensues.

Libya will become a basket case. From having free healthcare and education and being one of the best places to live in Africa[/quote]
… under the rule of an insane, brutal dictator…

[quote=“Chris”][quote=“cake”]The usual script ensues.

Libya will become a basket case. From having free healthcare and education and being one of the best places to live in Africa[/quote]
… under the rule of an insane, brutal dictator…[/quote]

Granted. However from what we are seeing there might even be a more insane and brutal one coming. Hopefully not. I believe the Taliban were first seen as liberators. :whistle:

The problem with countries like Libya (and many African/Middle Eastern countries) is they are artificial constructs where many tribes that hate each other have been shoved together, creating a democracy from this mix is always going to a tough nut to crack.

HH: Dunno about that. I reckon even if they were mono-ethnic they’d still be a fucking mess because their cultures are backward.

Also, aren’t plenty of Western nations primarily artificial constructs full of ethnic groups that at one point couldn’t stand each other? They’ve sorted their shit out and got on with it, but that’s probably because the underlying culture isn’t backward.

There’s some truth to that, being into their religion in a big way doesn’t help if there are different religions, nor does the corruption or the lack of economic opportunities for many.

We’ll see about that.