Post Gadaffi Libya - What Now?

I predict a long, bloody civil war where everybody gets killed. All the people with fight in them get killed. The peaceful people hiding in their homes get taken over by Taliban rule. Taliban rule lasts 1,000,000.000 years. I’m an optimist.

It’s more trouble than Pacheco’s pig. Be that as it may, I’m not saying it’s good, I’m not saying it’s bad. Let’s just wait and see what happens.

An analysis from STRATFOR - (its a pay site so I will post in entirety for those interested)

[quote]Libyan Rebels’ Immediate Security Concerns
August 22, 2011

Summary

Since Libyan National Transitional Council forces entered the capital city, the council’s two top officials have issued statements to remind the rebels that victory is not assured. Though the rebel council has announced the end of the Moammar Gadhafi era, it also continues to warn that areas of Tripoli remain unpacified, loyalist strongholds remain in the cities of Sirte and Sabha, and some loyalist forces could be on their way to the capital from the city of Zlitan.

Analysis

Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, head of Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), and the other top-ranking NTC official, Mahmoud Jibril, have issued several statements since NTC forces entered the city of Tripoli on Aug. 21. The leaders’ statements were meant to temper the behavior of the rebels, who feel victory is at hand, and allay international concerns that Libya could soon descend into chaos. The NTC also wants to assure residents of areas that were until recently under Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s control that NTC forces mean them no harm. Re-establishing security is the NTC’s main goal, but obstacles remain.

Gadhafi’s remaining forces will continue fighting. Abdel-Jalil said Aug. 22 that the Gadhafi era was over and that the rebels control almost all of Tripoli. However, he conceded that the Gadhafi compound at Bab al-Aziziya “and the surrounding areas” remain unpacified. The NTC has admitted that the fight is not over — not only in Tripoli but in other areas of the country as well.

Jibril warned Aug. 22 that the rebels needed to be aware that some of Gadhafi’s forces were approaching from the east. This was likely in reference to the forces that have been holding the line at Zlitan for several weeks in the face of a westward advance by Misurata-based rebels. During the simultaneous move toward the capital from Zawiya on Aug. 21, the Misurata rebels were able to push Gadhafi’s men out of Zlitan but did not advance much farther west than that. With the capital under siege and Tripoli’s eastern districts experiencing a rash of uprisings, the NTC is concerned that the loyalist forces previously in Zlitan will return to the capital to fight.

Most of Libya is under NTC control, but Gadhafi strongholds remain in Sirte and the Fezzan Desert city of Sabha. Abdel-Jalil addressed this issue directly in an Aug. 22 interview. Sirte is Gadhafi’s hometown and, like Sabha, is a bastion of the Gadhafi tribe, which has relied upon the Libyan leader’s reign for its privileged position. These likely will be the last groups of loyalists to surrender. Abdel-Jalil acknowledged that these areas remain unpacified and voiced an expectation that the inhabitants of both cities would “rise up from within” as the regime’s position continues to weaken. Later in the day, he claimed that Sirte was under siege, while Al Jazeera reported that electricity to the city had been cut and communications disrupted. Multiple senior Gadhafi officials have reportedly taken refuge in Sirte.

According to varying reports from rebel fighters in Tripoli and also Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, Gadhafi’s forces retain control of 10-20 percent of Tripoli. The exact amount of territory under loyalist control is almost as much of a mystery as what became of the Libyan army’s Khamis Brigade. Commanded by Gadhafi’s son Khamis, the brigade purportedly was the strongest line of defense protecting the capital, yet on Aug. 21 the forces put up almost no resistance as rebels pushed eastward from Zawiya. An Aug. 22 Al Arabiya report claimed that Khamis Gadhafi was leading the brigade from the Gadhafi compound at Bab al-Aziziya into central Tripoli, though this was never confirmed, nor was an Al Jazeera report that his corpse had been discovered alongside the body of Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senoussi in Tripoli. Khamis’ whereabouts, like those of his father and several other brothers, are unclear.

It is possible that the most highly trained Libyan soldiers in Tripoli have retreated to entrenched urban positions from which they plan to conduct an urban insurgency. Were this to happen, it would be very difficult for NTC forces to pacify them, as the Gadhafi forces have access to large amounts of heavy weaponry and know the city’s terrain. But an insurgency in Tripoli likely would not duplicate what happened in Iraq after the U.S. invasion; Tripoli has no deep lines of supply, like those that ran into Iraq via the Iranian and Syrian borders, and there is no foreign occupier to use as a point to rally massive numbers of people.

So rather than an Iraqi-style insurgency, perhaps a bigger concern is that the situation in Libya could become similar to those seen after the overthrow of the regimes in Somalia in 1991 and Afghanistan in 1992. In those cases, the factions that took down the incumbent governments began fighting with one another — and some of the remnants of the former regimes — in a free-for-all battle for control after failing to agree on a power-sharing formula.[/quote]

I, personally, think its less than genuine to refer to this as a “rebellion” or “internal struggle.” The influence of outside actors has been paramount in this conflict. London, Paris, Damascus, Tehran, Langley…hell, probably several more have been the impetus both in $$$s, equipment, intel, logistics and friggin cheer-leading.
I look for a ‘cleansing action’ following this with many, if not most, of the lead actors being removed to make way for the designated leaders to assume their positions.
These things have a way of going…mostly…according to script.

:2cents:

Well, someone in IP could be optimistic for once! I expect they’ll end up with a civilised, peaceful society like the U.K. Umm… :ohreally: :ponder:

I don’t think there can be any script in a country as complex as Libya. Just not possible. Look at the conflicting information and chaos from Tripoli at the moment. In the end if the Libyan people desire a democratic stable government enough things might work out. I’m hopeful that the mistakes of Iraq can mostly be prevented and rationality will prevail.

The usual script ensues.

Libya will become a basket case. From having free healthcare and education and being one of the best places to live in Africa (literacy rate of 88%, UN human development indicator puts it at 53 in the world, above Brazil and Ukraine) it will fall to its knees.
The corporations/banksters as always will welcome it. Everything will be broken up for the market and the Libyans will own virtually nothing.
The IMF/World Bank (who this week offered their help) enter and the country will be in debt and forever screwed.

Arms sales will increase. Contracts for ‘rebuilding’ will be awarded to groups who have lobbyists in (western) governments who push for such wars. These companies rarely do what they say they will do. e.g. Parsons were awarded $186 million to build 142 health clinics in Iraq. They built 6.
Oil contracts will be signed (see the map below).

Security companies will move in and make billions. Democracy consultancy is another sham they have nowadays.

It’s the same old same old. Doesn’t matter if it’s Bush or Obama reading the teleprompter, you get the same old crap.
And the taxpayers pay for it and never get a return. The government borrow the money off the banksters who charge interest. The money goes to arms companies etc (offshore and pay no taxes no doubt). Meanwhile the governments say they have to make cutbacks and we have to make cut backs as there is no money.

It’s a big scam. Mafioso in all but name.

“War is a racket”. Maj Gen. Smedley Butler 1933.

Vote for change - vote Ron Paul.

[quote=“cake”]The usual script ensues.

Libya will become a basket case. From having free healthcare and education and being one of the best places to live in Africa[/quote]
… under the rule of an insane, brutal dictator…

[quote=“Chris”][quote=“cake”]The usual script ensues.

Libya will become a basket case. From having free healthcare and education and being one of the best places to live in Africa[/quote]
… under the rule of an insane, brutal dictator…[/quote]

Granted. However from what we are seeing there might even be a more insane and brutal one coming. Hopefully not. I believe the Taliban were first seen as liberators. :whistle:

The problem with countries like Libya (and many African/Middle Eastern countries) is they are artificial constructs where many tribes that hate each other have been shoved together, creating a democracy from this mix is always going to a tough nut to crack.

HH: Dunno about that. I reckon even if they were mono-ethnic they’d still be a fucking mess because their cultures are backward.

Also, aren’t plenty of Western nations primarily artificial constructs full of ethnic groups that at one point couldn’t stand each other? They’ve sorted their shit out and got on with it, but that’s probably because the underlying culture isn’t backward.

There’s some truth to that, being into their religion in a big way doesn’t help if there are different religions, nor does the corruption or the lack of economic opportunities for many.

We’ll see about that.

[quote=“TainanCowboy”]An analysis from STRATFOR - (its a pay site so I will post in entirety for those interested)

I, personally, think its less than genuine to refer to this as a “rebellion” or “internal struggle.” The influence of outside actors has been paramount in this conflict. London, Paris, Damascus, Tehran, Langley…hell, probably several more have been the impetus both in $$$s, equipment, intel, logistics and friggin cheer-leading.
I look for a ‘cleansing action’ following this with many, if not most, of the lead actors being removed to make way for the designated leaders to assume their positions.
These things have a way of going…mostly…according to script.

:2cents:[/quote]

I’m not sure if any ‘script’ will work here. Libya is one of the most tribal countries in the Maghreb, and in the rest of the Arab world.

You have something like nine main tribes and another hundred minor ones, and they’re all used to running things their way. We’ll see what happens. If things get bad, everyone will rush back to their tribes and circle the wagons there.

canadaka.net/link.php?id=71443[quote]A Canadian man died on the frontlines of the Libyan conflict this week while fighting with the rebels trying to oust Moammar Gadhafi from power.

A friend has revealed that Nader Benrewin was shot dead by a sniper as he took part in a raid on Gadhafi’s Bab al-Aziziya compound in Tripoli, which Libyan rebels stormed on Tuesday. Benrewin, 24, was born in Edmonton, but worked in Ottawa for the past three years.

The Ottawa man made the decision to go back to Libya where his family was living and he pledged to fight with the rebels. Benrewin was trained in Benghazi and stationed near the Tunisian border before taking part in the raid on Gadhafi’s compound.

Alabadleh said Benrewin was a peace activist who enjoyed meals and riverside strolls with his friends.[/quote]

Rest in Peace, my good man. :notworthy:

It will be another afganistan

How can a peace activist fight in a war?

How can a peace activist fight in a war?[/quote]
Maybe he wasn’t an absolutist about it. Maybe he recognized that sometimes it’s necessary and worthwhile to go to war.

How can a peace activist fight in a war?[/quote]
Maybe he wasn’t an absolutist about it. Maybe he recognized that sometimes it’s necessary and worthwhile to go to war.[/quote]

Wouldn’t that simply make him an ‘average man’ rather than a peace activist? It’s one thing to recognize the need to comprimise a position, it’s another thing to act in a manner which is the polar opposite of a declared position. In this case the peace activist label doesn’t have much credibility. I could understand if he was in country while his family came under attack and took up arms to fight with them. However this so called peace activist left an IT job in Ottawa, flew half way around the world to join a rebel army.

No.
Maybe, maybe not.
Don’t know what the facts actually are. Perhaps your description is correct. Perhaps it’d be more accurate to write: “However, this dedicated peace activist left an IT job in Ottawa, flew half way around the world to stand with his family and join a democratic rebellion.”

:ponder: