Predictions for 2004

Politics International Politics
1

How about a few quick predictions regarding political events in the upcoming year?

I predict George W. will win big in November and that the Republicans will come close to getting 60 seats in the Senate.

Regardless, the movement will allow most of Bush’s court nominees to get appointed.

The US budget deficit will decrease (as percentage of GDP) but government spending will increase returning the US to the deficits of the 1980s and early 1990s.

Chirac will resign in scandal when it is discovered that under his watch France was a bit too close to Saddam Hussein.

There will be one major terrorist attack in the United States and one in the Germany. Reaction will be muted.

Israel will build its fence as planned, taking all the land it wants along the Jordan River and separating itself unilaterally from Palestine.

Egypt will get a new government.

Algeria’s civil war will wind down. Travel to the nation will again be possible.

Lien-Soong will win in Taiwan. Relations with China will improve dramatically. Direct lengths will be close to fruition.

South African rand will tumble 30 percent or more due to instability in the country and lack of confidence in Mbeki.

Lula in Brazil will temper his policies after Chavez is voted out of office in a referendum. Military attempts to keep office will be quashed.

Castro will die. A Velvet Revolution will take place.

Japan will continue its recovery.

Germany will continue its close ties with France seriously looking at moving ahead with a two-speed Europe, but these plans will not come to fruition after Schroeder loses the next election in a few years.

Russia will continue its crackdown on Chechnya. The Cacausus will see major instability. Putin will in effect become a dictator.

Belarus economy will collapse. Russia won’t save it. International management of the economy will be necessary ala Africa.

Turkey will get a clear light from the EU about when it can join. As part and parcel of this effort, Cyprus will be reunified.

India and Pakistan will move toward closer relations and solving the Kashmir issue but instability in Pakistan will derail the effort. The US will lose Pakistan as an ally or increasingly strained relations.

Saudi Arabia will see increased violence as various factions in the country battle for control.

Iran will continue much the same, half-heartedly cooperating on nuclear inspections. No democratic revolution for 2004.

North Korea will continue the same path. No progress.

Indonesia will continue the same. No progress. Occasional Muslim extremist violence.

And just for a wild stab in the dark: Prince Charles will marry Camilla and decide to remove himself from succession in favor of Prince William.

2

I do hope you’re right on that one and wrong on this one:

3

I am captivated by your predictions, except, pace you and alleycat, that Lien-soong wouldn win presidential seat.

4

Ditto for the Lien-Soong prediction. Also, I don’t think Mubarak will die this year…So he fainted at a speech last month. There has not been enough time to groom his son as his successor.

5

Did I say Mubarak would die? No. I said new government. See what happens. Could happen. I expect you all to keep a copy to tell me in 2005 how fucking wrong I was but then maybe I will no longer be around either? haha Think of the loss to Forumosa!

6

There will be several legislative moves in Taiwan to restrict or open up the English language teaching market in Taiwan.

It’s my prediction for 2004. I’ll put money on this one.

7

I predict the world will remain the fucked-up place it is today, a bit better or worst at most.

Hey, I am being optimistic here … :wink:

8

The Committee for Truth in Posting request that Fred Smith change the title of his first post in this thread from “predictions” to “fond hopes and wishes”. Yes, we all wish that Cubans will revolt and that it would be safe to visit Algeria, but those are desires, not realistic possibilities for the coming year.

9

All quite feasible, Fred . . . except the Soong-Lien victory. And why will Castro die this year? Has he been sick? I also share Alley’s desire not to see the Rand plummet.

Here’s another one for you. John “tosser” Howard is going to lose the next Australian federal election and the Labor government will increasingly distance itself from the US war on terror. Terms of trade will become an increasing source of tension between the US and Australia.

HG

10

Very bold, fred. You got guts for putting you neck on the forum chopping block like this!

11

Rascal… you need to get out more, find yourself a girl/boyfriend

12

more predictions:

alaska refuge and national parks and federal land won’t be exploited by the energy industry, cuz hey, the EPA, the unbiased agency that it is, is here to protect us and save these parks for future generations of americans.
oh and did you hear, superfund has no money.

13

Cannibalism will be all the rage.
smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/ … 69947.html

14

Rather than waste resources in house-to-house, guerilla warfare, occupied Iraqis will resort to this tactic instead:

[quote=“NY Times”]
[color=red]As Fighting Rages, Insurgents in Iraq Kidnap 3 Japanese
[/color]
By JOHN F. BURNS

Published: April 9, 2004

AGHDAD, Iraq, April 8

15

Fred wrote,
Israel will build its fence as planned, taking all the land it wants along the Jordan River and separating itself unilaterally from Palestine.

Israel is in Palestine. How will it seperate? They will just grab more land to call Israel.

16

Call it what you will but that’s what I mean. Also, notice I am already one down with the mistaken prediction that Lien Soong would win.

Freddie

17

There will be major corruption in the 2004 US Presidential election but not to the degree of the 2000 one. Bush will win because there isn’t a strong contender running against him. Shortly after Bush is declared the winner, God will come down and say, “Why bother postponing the inevitable?” and ends the world right then and there.

18

Well Imaniou:

In that case you had better hurry and join us at the next Fredfest. Now, that you have come to accept the way of the world and that George W. will win the next election, we have found common ground that is right get it RIGHT. Happy to see you acquiesing to reality. Welcome aboard.