President Tsai?


#41

No


#42

Why do you think it’s unlikely? I would find it surprising if article 23 legislation wasn’t introduced in tw more or less immediately when being annexed.

Furthermore, currently in hk something around 30% of the voting population are disenfranchised(their candidates either not allowed to run or kicked out after being elected), you don’t think that proportion would be higher in Taiwan ?


#43

I’m specifically talking about internet access & internet access only. In HK, you can access any internet website you want. As for other freedoms being restricted in HK or potentially in a future Taiwan SAR (if that happens), I have nothing to argue at all and actually agree with you.

What did you think I was saying?


#44

I thought you meant much less freedom in general, and not specifically the internet

Although you can still access all in hk, this will probably start changing very soon(my guess within next 2 years)

There is already a growing trend in hk to self censor online, and I expect that very soon the telecommunication companies will start blocking access to websites promoting eg hk independence

I am also quite sure websites promoting resistance to tw sar would be blocked and/or the person hosting it prosecuted from day 1 when being annexed


#45

you could be right, or not. some say that PRC itself will collapse by 2024, so all of this is moot.


#46

Based on what?


#47

no fuckin’ idea. you’ll have to ask Gain.


#48

They’ve been saying that for decades. Not a chance.
Whatever it is it is not a banana republic.


#49

Please note Venezuela was the richest and most advanced country in the region…

Their neighbors elected an ultra right, religious fanatic government, just as the economy was taking off. They will meet halfway.

Bit of hubris, bit of despair, and the house of cards falls apart.


#50

Sure but the us vs them education is all deflection to take the heat off themselves. When this no longer works, when things get really rough, which is just a matter of time then shit is going to hit the fan.


#51

Based on xi’s reign. His actions have been like a megalomaniac dictator. He even removed presidential terms so he could be a legit dictator. Its not stable at all, at least you could say the previous presidents in china were keeping things pretty stable.


#52

:crazy_face:

How is this related to Venezuela? Also, Venezuela was rich because of oil, while China has grown first as cheap labour, then copying the things that they were manufacturing for others and finally thanks to their own R&D (and development).

Also Venezuela wasn’t a dictatorial state (AFAIK, I might be wrong).


#53

He mentioned banana republics. Actually, even the richest can fail from within when the base is corroded.

It was a dictatorship, then a failed democracy with a strong military backup,. then a military junta after a coup, then a rigged election… and here we are.


#54

Venezuala is nothing like China though . China really does have superpower capability or close to it. Nuclear armed, massive military and economy and population and landmass. Technologically advanced. It’s no joke.


#55

Even if Venezuela was the richest country in the region… what does it even mean? And again, they never invested their income in something that could make them less oil dependent. China doesn’t depend on a single, limited resource. And China owns half World’s debt (although I’m not entirely sure if this is good or bad actually).


#56

They have a very impressive military force, which holds the regime up to this day.


#57

My comparison has to do withthe fact that the economy and the politics can be develñoping in completely opposite directions. One sees teh ledger and thinks everything is fine without thinking of the cost of all that “prosperity” and ignoring the fact that such prosperity does not reach everyone.

It is no wonder that China’s economy has been compared with a big, shiny turd. It looks nice on teh outside…

Venezuela was swimming in dollars, the revolutionaries throwinmg money around like confetti…/ as long as there was money. All it took is for oil prices to dive… and teh whole hous eof cards fell apart.

Chinas has so many unstable issues, so many house sof cards, so many internal fractures and conflicts. Who knows which Aquiles heel will cause a major disaster? This is not good for Taiwan, teh proverbial goose for teh feast. The expiatory goat over which all sins are blamed.


#58

Don’t see it, sorry. But I guess that it’s not that important after all.


#59

It’s not that China is a Banana Republic that makes people think that. It’s a demographic thing that’s been played out before:

“China’s working-age population started shrinking—the overall population could start falling in just eight years—US economist Nicholas Eberstadt warned that China’s aging as a result of its one-child policy would have more significant consequences for its growth than people were realizing. Last week, US-based demographic expert Yi Fuxian warned that China’s age profiles are startlingly similar to Japan’s in the 1990s, shortly before two decades of economic malaise set in.”


#60

I see that over decades . But it’s the current demographic drop that has allowed them to catch up so quickly too (with resources being funnelled into grandkids ).
They are also developing AI and robots quickly.