Prices

Legal Legal - Real Estate & Housing
#1

Ok two questions.
Too many houses and vacant apartments all over the country
Unstable political situation
Declining economy
almost zero population growth

(1) Why would anyone spend more than ten million Taiwan dollars on a house in Taiwan ? May be located right in the capital city where prices fluctuate less. But why buy now ? Surely waiting say 2 years would be better when the housing crash or decline happens (in my opinion). Salaries are very low in Taiwan anyway. Prices will be beyond the reach of first time buyers, and if interest rates ever go up along with unemployment we are looking at a big fall, and quick.

(2) In my opinion a good place now would be San xia due to the MRT being built and the university etc
What about Taoyen many Taiwanese reckon it is a good one. But why, because of the airport ? Can’t see why Taoyen would go up. No MRT either. Enlighten me please as to why Taoyen is considered a good property investment ?

#2

If you have money to invest, choose another country. If you are looking for a home to live in, buy when you need it.

#3

[quote=“fenlander”]Ok two questions.
Too many houses and vacant apartments all over the country
Unstable political situation
Declining economy
almost zero population growth

(1) Why would anyone spend more than ten million Taiwan dollars on a house in Taiwan ? May be located right in the capital city where prices fluctuate less. But why buy now ? Surely waiting say 2 years would be better when the housing crash or decline happens (in my opinion). Salaries are very low in Taiwan anyway. Prices will be beyond the reach of first time buyers, and if interest rates ever go up along with unemployment we are looking at a big fall, and quick.
[/quote]

unstable? comparing with US or UK. Maybe. But comparing with Africa, South America, middle east… etc. I think Taiwan is very stable. Oh… another point is: Muslim terrorists don’t have any reason to kill Taiwanese because our ancent haven’t conqure them for “Bloody Oil”.

Declining economy? You know very less on our economic structure. Lots of small-middle sized enterprises earn money around the world especially on exporting. Don’t look inside.

back to reason (1) Due to 3 direct link fantasic dream. After 3 direct link, Donald Trump maybe invest money in Taiwan. Why? Taiwan can be the 1st stop or the last stop during Asian tourism. And…there’s some very big potential booming ability which will attract the richest in OECD to invest Taiwan.

#4

Export volumes are declining, and yes, labor intensive industries are moving out. Back when I started in business, Taiwan was competitive in laminates and catering equipment. Not so anymore, and that sea change has taken place over the last 3 years.

It’s happening across industries, and it’s a damn shame, as Taiwan is more livable than say China.

However, as the legal and political infrastructure here is weak as well, I don’t really see that much protection for the foreign housebuyer here.

Also with the static mess, that’s Taiwanese politics, don’t really see anything good happening near term to lift the economy.

Regarding wages versus house prices, then yes, there’s a point there. However interest rates here have been very low, and govt support have kept the bottom from falling out. given that we are facing increasing inflation and interest rates, I don’t hope anyone buying in Taiwan are using variable interest loans - they are in for a nasty surprise - leading to more foreclosures and necative pressure on the market over the coming years.

#5

[quote=“fenlander”] Salaries are very low in Taiwan anyway. Prices will be beyond the reach of first time buyers, and if interest rates ever go up along with unemployment we are looking at a big fall, and quick.[/quote]Due to Taiwan’s unique culture it is not exactly a proper guage to analyze prices based on average salaries. Besides a lot of unreported income, the average salaries are extremely low here.

However, Taiwan people get ahead in this world by pulling their money together as a rather large family unit. They also save a much higher percentage of their income than people in the West do. They are also extremly frugal, just look around at the unkept exteriors of the houses here, that is partly because they are too cheap to fix up the outside of their old building. The older ones are expecially good at saving money and since everyone lives together it is often Grandpa and Grandma paying the down payment and then each family member pitching in to help make the monthly payments.

#6

#1, any foreigner buying anything in Taiwan is likely to get “The Foreigner Discount” (+20% to +1,000%). Roll this into your investment formula.

#2, foreign investment is fleeing Taiwan like rats off a sinking ship, and most local products aren’t seriously competetive on quality or price, so…ermm…the economy is already in the crapper, and the only other thing that can happen is that the crapper gets flushed. Which brings me to:

#3, who in their right mind would buy land in a third world country that really doesn’t even exist?? Who is going to ensure that your title to the house/land is even valid?? After all, the world is divided (according to the local culture) into “people” and “foreigners.” When the defecation hits the rotary oscelator, the thing to remember is that you are a second class citizen, damned near subhuman.

AND

The reality is that it is FAR cheaper to rent, NTD20K per month gets you a 5-7 million dollar (NTD) house…when you run the amortization on the mortgage, you find that its something like 40-50K per month?? 30K?? Geez, I’d have to get out the HP 10B to figure it out again, but EVERY time I’ve wondered if it made sense to buy instead of rent, its been in this neighborhood.

Plus, if you BUY then you have the joy of having repairs on your house done at the above mentioned “foreigner discount.” hehehe.

#7

[quote=“fenlander”]What about Taoyuan many Taiwanese reckon it is a good one. But why, because of the airport ? Can’t see why Taoyen would go up. No MRT either. Enlighten me please as to why Taoyen is considered a good property investment ?[/quote]Taoyuan is probably the cheapest “Suburb” around. I remember a few years back, you could get an apartment in a new building for NT$100,000 per ping. Not sure if it is still so cheap. But that is about half the price of any other suburn anywhere in Taipei County. Granted it is hard to call it a suburb because it is so far out, but many people do commute from even futher away. Besides being cheap it should go up eventually if it hasn’t already. There will also be an express train from the airport to Taipei train station connecting to the MRT. Perhapps it will stop in Taoyuan. Maybe also the high speed rail will stop in Taoyuan?

#8

hehe, Taoyuan going up?

No, there’s been modest price rises here since 2002, however nothing earthshattering. You can still get new places in Yangmei for a fair bit less than 100k/ping. Taoyuan - you mean Nankan I guess - is overbuilt as it is, and they are adding new units like crazy into a market with no fundamental drivers of any kind.

Also, interesting here is the are around the new high speed train/ and perhaps in 10 years metro station - they are starting to develop this, and it would appear to be taking over from Nankan down the track. Nankan/Taoyuan proper won’t get anything, no MRT, no high speed trains, and with a new shiny town going up out toward the airport, it will end up as yesterdays jewel, and may the good God have mercy on you if you bought anything there.

An alternative issue is that freeway no1 is a mess during rush hour - if I were to work in Taipei, I would live closer to TPE than that - 2 hrs in a car each way would kill me.

#9

The only good prospect for taiwan housing i think, is if the mainland reunites. Like a Hong Kong situation. This would bring in thousands of low paid workers, both boosting the economy and the rental market, right ? In addition to the managers doctors etc that would have to support the new boom in the population. However at present i think the market is overpriced. But some real estate experts seem to think housing in Taiwan is still the way to make the big bucks!

#10

Note quite - it has been tried, it’s called SE Asian workers. They live stacked in layers on the building sites or in iron shed addictions to their factories, mostly. There are some living in flats - 10 to a 20 ping place. they are here to make make money, not splurging out on real estate.

Hmmm, ill workers get a one way ticket to chengdu - at least that would appear to be the current modus operandi.

the people thinking that big buckes can be made are the ones with in interest in idiots providing liquidity to the market - IE they have a vestd interest in talking the market up.

Still, no fundamental drivers - even unifying with china might not do the trick.

#11

lol good replies made me chuckle there Mr Cynical. But i have to admit I think you are right, apart from a few hot spot housing bubbles i have seen. But these are very isolated. I have my eyes on a couple of little areas. Micro bubbles !!!

#12

Taoyuan no. I have an apartment out there near the Carrfore area and it has depreciated about 10% in the past 5 years. It’s worth less than when I bought it 9 years ago. Too much construction out there as Mr He said.

I don’t know where ace gets his figures. Our apartment is worth about 2m and we have a NT8000 a month mortgage, which means our tenant pays for almost the whole thing. Can’t see how a place worth twice or even three times that would have a 40-50K mortage. Also what makes you think foreign investment is leaving the country? It was certainly up in 2005.

I really wish my wife and I had bought a place in Muzha a few years ago as prices have gone up 50%. I expect they will continue to despite all the building out here because it is a nice place to live especially along the river. But now most places I’d want are just a little too expensive for me.

#13

[quote=“Muzha Man”]
I don’t know where ace gets his figures.[/quote]Beats me. :idunno:
We pay less a month in mortgage than we did for our previous (smaller) apartment cost us in rent, and it’s gone up about 60% in value since we bought it three years ago. This is Taichung BTW.
The occupancy rate in Taipei City is around 95% I believe so if you see an empty apartment up there the chances are it’s for sale. I still don’t understand why you can’t sell an apartment with tenants in it, it doesn’t make sense.

#14

I purchased in ShiJr at the bottom of the market in 2002/2003 and sold just this month and made 63% profit. The profits will pay for the interior design on my new house. This time I bought in TienMu.

#15

They used to have low interest loans for first time buyers - that might skew figures for some of you.

#16

[quote=“Mr He”]They used to have low interest loans for first time buyers - that might skew figures for some of you.[/quote]Yeah, we got in on that but I’m sure we’d still be ahead, or at least even, on monthly expenses even if we hadn’t.