What other threads?
LBTW and I have had a bit of a stoush in some threads. Unfortunately, he seems to think that you can make subtle but
[quote=“LittleBuddhaTW”][quote=“hexuan”]I agree. And that’s pretty much what Bill Jenner says about the whole of China.
Isn’t it fun the way anyone who says anything bad about Lord God Almighty Chen Shuibian gets labelled a KMT supporter? And if you say anything bad about Taiwan you’re a CCP supporter? Jesus. Good ole Joe McCarthy’s alive and well and living in Taiwan. Life’s simple on Forumosa innit? You’re either with the DPP or against it.[/quote]
Even more surprising when some of the most vocal people aren’t even Taiwanese…[/quote]
And where is your proof to back up this claim? 
Okay, I’m serious, where is the “why isn’t the government doing anything” thread?
I want to catch that ball…
Looking at Taiwan today, I would say that some good things have happened over the last say 30 years.
You have a p[retty modern economy. At least the government was smart enough to get enough out of the way to let that suceed.
OK, then you have a governing system, which is by and large ineffecient, but… well, people are not locked up for their beliefs, and in general the society here works.
OK, not so much in the way of innovative government, but with low taxes, a country happily muddling along, why expect more?
[quote=“Mr He”]I want to catch that ball…
Looking at Taiwan today, I would say that some good things have happened over the last say 30 years.
[/quote]
But why do we want to do the comparison at 30 years? Why not 10 or fewer years? In the modern age, 30 years is almost an eternity…
[quote=“Yellow Cartman”]
But why do we want to do the comparison at 30 years? Why not 10 or fewer years? In the modern age, 30 years is almost an eternity…[/quote]
OK what has happened here over the last 10 years, since you ask.
- First presidential elections.
- Change of power between government and opposition
- Taiwan builds up companies leading the world in electronics hardware.
- Starts making a high speed railway
- Laws governing foreigners relaxed a great deal
- Taipei getting a decent makeover.
Lots of other stuff happening too.
[quote=“hexuan”]I would be prepared to bet that one of the most important issues in domestic politics at the moment is the amount of government and opposition time spent on frippery unrelated to effective government.[quote]
TRUE!!! It all revolves around ORANGES.
[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“Yellow Cartman”]
But why do we want to do the comparison at 30 years? Why not 10 or fewer years? In the modern age, 30 years is almost an eternity…[/quote]
OK what has happened here over the last 10 years, since you ask.
- First presidential elections.
- Change of power between government and opposition
- Taiwan builds up companies leading the world in electronics hardware.
- Starts making a high speed railway
- Laws governing foreigners relaxed a great deal
- Taipei getting a decent makeover.
Lots of other stuff happening too.[/quote]
In the past 10 years I see the following:
- Taiwan lost its technological position as 2nd to Japan.
- Seen Korea overtake Taiwan in key industries that used to be Taiwan’s forte.
- Seen China take away Taiwan’s role as OEM leader thereby reducing many of Taiwan’s industrial centers to rusted out eye sores.
- Seen the decline in the number of top-notch Taiwanese Ph.Ds exported, suggesting that its formerly formidable university programs have declined sharply.
- Taiwan’s economic role is being challenged by previous back-water countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Korea.
Taiwan is a successful fledging democracy and that is its biggest achievement. However, growing political maturity is, IMO, not enough to be positive about Taiwan and the direction it is headed.
- Would argue Japan was always above Taiwan. What are your criteria?
- I agree to an extent
- Given a vast share of IT exports from China are from Taiwan companies I think this point doesnt float.
- I have no knowledge on this area so cant comment.
- Good Lord!!! Are you serious? See below.
From CIA Factbook:
Taiwan
GDP $528.6 billion
GDP per capita $23,400
FOREX reserves $207.1 billion
Thailand
$477.5 billion
$7,400
$42.15 billion
Malaysia
$207.8 billion
$9,000
$44.58 billion
Vietnam
$203.7 billion
$2,500
$6.357 billion
Sth Korea
$857.8 billion
$17,800
$155.4 billion
[quote=“AWOL”][quote=“Yellow Cartman”]
In the past 10 years I see the following:
- Taiwan lost its technological position as 2nd to Japan.
- Seen Korea overtake Taiwan in key industries that used to be Taiwan’s forte.
- Seen China take away Taiwan’s role as OEM leader thereby reducing many of Taiwan’s industrial centers to rusted out eye sores.
- Seen the decline in the number of top-notch Taiwanese Ph.Ds exported, suggesting that its formerly formidable university programs have declined sharply.
- Taiwan’s economic role is being challenged by previous back-water countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Korea.
[/quote]
[quote=“AWOL”]
- Would argue Japan was always above Taiwan. What are your criteria?[/quote]
We don’t disagree. You misread.
[quote=“AWOL”]
3. Given a vast share of IT exports from China are from Taiwan companies I think this point doesnt float.[/quote]
You don’t understand the nature of the export. Taiwanese industries are commodity industries. Therefore, they compete on price alone. By competing on price alone, the key factor is locating the cheapest resources to produce which is why China is the recipient of so many Taiwanese companies. Taiwan can’t compete on services or value-add or anything higher level so they’re reduced to moving their entire production facilities to China. Where, invariably, the Chinese will learn to copy those methods and then kick out the Taiwanese companies after they’ve been sucked dry.
[quote=“AWOL”]5. Good Lord!!! Are you serious? See below.
From CIA Factbook: GDP data deleted[/quote][/quote]
You’re looking at the wrong information. GDP is historical data. You should be looking at foreign direct investment dollar trends. That is the sign of growth and future wealth.
One resource showing that the growth areas are in SE Asia and Greater Chinese speaking countries but not Taiwan. Foreign Direct Investment Reportand the FDI 2003 Report - see page 27 chart
Taiwan is no longer optimistic on developing its competitive position and neither are the people responsible for investments. In fact, it can be said that it’s given up because of the outflow of resources to China, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. Taiwanese money is being used for everything but itself. Its growth is lagging behind its neighbors. As the Asia-Pac economy develops further, Taiwan’s economic future will be more and more coupled with China’s and that does not bode well for it and its political supporters.
Taiwan companies moving lower value production offshore is a sign of Taiwan’s economic maturity. Australia, the US etc have all been through the same process that Taiwan is going through now. You may think its a sign of wekaness - I dont. Trust me, I do know the nature of how it works…
You said “is being challenged”, which to me implies some historical element… hence the GDP figures.
As for the ATK chart… it is a survey, not actual figures. Do you have actual figures of FDI? I am interested.
I dont really want to argue with you as you seem to think you are the expert and it would be a waste ot time trying to argue ratioanlly.
It’s being moved because of economic competition, has nothing to do with economic maturity.
It is a weakness. That is why it’s being moved off-shore to compete better or to simply survive. Companies who cannot reduce costs and grow are companies that go bankrupt.
Taiwan doesn’t have at the moment to replace the off-shored low margin commoditized industries. They do not have a matured R&D industry so they can’t compete on new product development. Their products are shoddy, so they can’t compete on quality. And they do not have a service industry so they can’t complete on services. So what do they compete on? Price? There’s a lot of cheaper countries and cheaper labor in the world and that’s putting the squeeze on it.
You can google it.
Right. You give up too easily. Too bad.
Ok, you win, bravo.
You obviously are missing the point on my comments, so why should I bother. You seem to think you know what is happening, well done.
Where do you work out of interest? Industry? Position? In Taiwan?
OK, I used to do a bit of finance industry work in Taibei. I find Yellow Cartman more misinformed than our former economist at the financial sweatshop I worked in. It was “chique” to think that Taiwan was going down the drain, but you needed a very creative (read weird) interpretation of the figures to reach that conclusion. I once grilled a government Economist over this, and well… His last defense was? “Have you been outside Taipei? Taipei is doing well, but the rest of the country is not doing so bloody well”.
OK, I did not answer him, as I found him a poorly informed idiot, living high on peddling suspect fin de sicle doom theories, but I lived and live in a small town called Yangmei, What has happened there? Some of the older traditional textile industries and low end machinery manufacturing has moved out. CPT (stock code 2475) closed down their CRT monitor factory, shipped the production line to, and continued to make the monitors there. They then tore the building down but let the metal skeleton stand. I wondered a bit about that, however suddenly they started building a US$some billion TFT-LCD plant there. They are also building one on the other side of the hill in Longtan. While this will lead to a glut near term, they will end up making money on it eventually, thus feeding another round of upgrades.
OK, traditional industries… Let’s take one I know, flexible packaging materials. Taiwan is a world beater, more advanced than Korea, but not more expensive. Are the Taiwanese moving everything away? have they stopped to invest? Hardly I dare to say. Once factory has plowed a few million of NT into a new machine able to make a new advanced pouch type, they are actually the first globally to make it. The other factory I work with is currently installing a new state of the art printing machine, which costs a few milllion US$ by the way. When supervised properly, I get very competitive prices at a quality which according to my customers is on par with the European producers.
A friend of mine is working with a Taiwanese supplier of fitness equipment. They are investing heavily in an extension of their factory, as they too try a move up the value chain.
I see Taiwan keeping up well in foundry, DRAM, and TFT-LCD, and some choice traditional sectors. The Koreans don’t have any foundries, and well… They have 2 DRAM producers, one is biger than the Taiwanese one, but the other, Hynix, has been tottering on the edge of bankrupcy for the last 4 years. TFt-LCD, they are a bit ahead of the Taiwanese. However, their model is different, mainly doing branding, where the Taiwanese concentrate on what they are best on, OEM, and leave the branding to others.
Will the science parks empty out, as people are moving their industries out? The Xinzhu sience based industrial park is bursting at the seams, they are planning an expansion in Toufen, and are also building one in Yilan. They will be needed.
A traditional industrial park like say Youth Industrial Park (Sic) in Buxin (near Yangmei) has its fair share of empty factory buildings, but well, right now you see empty factories being torn down and newer ones go up - or you see them fill up with new tenants. Actually they had to expand that industrial park a couple of years ago. The Longtan (also near yangmei) science park also has huge high tech facility going up, I have not checked it out, so I don’t know what it is.
Some labor intensive, low knowledge sectors are moving out, but that’s not a problem per se.
I did some research on the hollowing out of Taiwan and together with my then superior, the conclusion was reached that it is largely a myth. Some industries leave, as Taiwan struggles up the value chain, and that’s supposed to happen. Unemployment is low, and yes… Taiwan has weathered the econimic crises hitting East Asia from 1997 onwards a damn sight better than South Korea. Next year will be softer than the record-breaking 2004 for the electronics industry, but well, it’s cyclical. Expect the ill informed doomsayers to roll out their bullshit once more.
so yellow Cartman. I expect you not to have a clue about what you talk about, and I don’t plan to provide the stats to contradict you completely on a quantitative basis. Look at capex, economic growth rates (5%+ in 2004, 4%+ in 2005), and you get a picture of an economy, which is doing well.
You are so wrong that it hurts when you state that it is a weakness that some industries are moving out. labor intensice stuff goes to China, capital or knowledge intensive stuff gets developed here. That is happening, and that has happened here for more than 20 years. No damage to the economy so far. Tell me, what’s the difference between losing the shoe manufacturing industry and the low end CRT monitor industry?
And YC… Thanks for the laugh. :bravo: Really made a boring evening.
Well Mr. He,
It depends on who you talk to. I’ve done my own little research as well, not simply relying on paper reports because I know as well as anyone that anyone can write anything.
What you misinterpreted in my writing was that I did not say that Taiwan is doing poorly. What I am saying is that relative to the Asia-Pac economies and their development, Taiwan has slipped over the past 10 years.
Don’t be fooled by the what goes up as a sign of what is real. I’ve lived through that bubble called Silicon Valley. Hi-tech parks, buildings whatever all look pretty and sexy but it’s a facade. Anyone can build that, but not every country can build intellectual capital to fill those buildings.
Lots of examples of that, Malaysia’s Cybercity is recently a major failure. 10 years later and it’s still empty due to bankrupt government policies and corruption. Shanghai, beautiful gleaming skyscrapers on the outside but empty on the inside. Money that’s misappropriated due to corruption but it sure is sexy. Hsinchu S&T Park? Yes, it’s supposed to be the shining star but why was it that recently in TSB that I met a couple of engineers from there who are looking to get out? Curiously, they painted a picture of non-growth and stagnation and that the future of the companies located there are not so bright. Maybe those people on the ground know something you and I don’t know? I also work with a company that does HR staffing and outplacement in Hsinchu. Without going into specifics, I can tell you that the business there is extremely difficult with very low margins. Hardly the sign of positive growth in an area where it is supposed to be high growth as you are so sure of? And then you look at gov’t institutes like say ChungShan Institute of Technology (CSIST), located in your neck of the woods. This place is so poor that it is rationing electricity. Good lord, a top government facility rationing electricity?
So Mr He, scratch the surface a little bit, you’ll find that the gold you see may be fools gold.
I think you will find Mr He as well as several others round here have long careers in the areas of finance, consulting etc in Taiwan. As they (we) have met literally 100’s of companies over the years, they (we) tend to have somewhat of a feel for the local economy.
People base opinions on fact, networking, solid research. If I and Mr He have our opinions based on this, then let us have them please. Just because we are right doesnt mean anything at the end of the day. 
[quote=“AWOL”]I think you will find Mr He as well as several others round here have long careers in the areas of finance, consulting etc in Taiwan. As they (we) have met literally 100’s of companies over the years, they (we) tend to have somewhat of a feel for the local economy.
People base opinions on fact, networking, solid research. If I and Mr He have our opinions based on this, then let us have them please. Just because we are right doesnt mean anything at the end of the day. [/quote]
Of course, just as I also do my fact checking, networking and research and our sources and experiences will probably not overlap much, but complementary. Unlike you and Mr He, I have no agenda w/r/t Taiwan. I don’t have any significant political or sentimental value to Taiwan as maybe you and that Mr He definitely have. It boils down to, does this country have what it takes where I can make better money than if I were still back in the States.
You said you were in HR right? Well… naturally you are going to talk to a lot of pissed off people, upset with the economy etc… we talk to politicians, academics, local companies and MNC’s from a diverse range of industries, people in the street, consumers, foreign offices, trade associations, venture capital companies, consultants, HR firms etc etc…
Yes I like Taiwan, I wouldnt choose it as a place to work if I didnt like. You cant make real money in a place you hate… in my experiences when people try this they lack motivation, energy, drive… they become sloppy and inefficient. Yes its important but it shouldnt be your number 1 motivator.
No, I didn’t say I was in HR. I said I work with an HR company. But I also work with a lot of different companies as a consultant.
My guanxi is just as good as anyone’s. I get access to places and people normally off-limits to alot of people. And because of my “neutral” position as an outsider and an insider, I have access to both Blue and Green Party people.