Slow Exodus of Businesses from Taiwan due to political risk

Do we have evidence?

I asked at HSBC.recently if they’re seeing customers moving assets out of Taiwan due to the China threat and they confirmed.


I’ve also heard rich Taiwanese relocating their crap to Singapore.

Rich people are always moving their crap abroad. I have a lawyer friend who works at a bank here and he just laughs at how many wealthy Taiwanese are constantly opening accounts abroad and squirreling their “hard earned savings” away. Look at what rich Chinese have been doing with their $$. They aren’t keeping it in their beloved homeland.


Usually the rich keep their assets at arms length. Makes it easier should any legal proceedings take place to protect your assets…

In Taiwan it is fairly easy for the government to freeze your accounts etc. Impossible with offshore accounts/investments.

Moving assets abroad isn’t going to do shit to protect it, especially to Singapore. If a war breaks out, Taiwan being a very strategic location is going to cause huge shipping disruption.

By the way the US has considered invading Taiwan in WWII but geography and the lack of suitable landing beaches (Taiwan is mostly cliffs and all that) made them cancel the plan and they ended up skipping Taiwan altogether. They did bomb Taiwan but that’s about the extent of the damages that happened to Taiwan during WWII. Compared to say Japan which they firebombed to hell and back.

If the US won’t invade Taiwan then China isn’t going to be able to, and blockades will just stir up a hornet’s nest.

Basically if war happens your asset will probably lose value massively regardless.

I have heard of small movements, nothing serious afaik.

Ive heard of companies choosing not to invest. Especially recently

My impression is that more businesses are coming to Taiwan than leaving.

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I’d imagine moving things to Singapore is pretty safe. They’re a service economy and I don’t think chip disruptions will disrupt the strength of their currency too much

There will be disruption all right, and not just chips.

Imagine if the Suez canal were blocked for months.

I have some money in HK. Also trading account. Bit of a question mark. Can see why folks park money in Singapore.

If you want to know the possibility of China invading Taiwan look at Chinese semi state run companies investment in the morale West…

They were at an all time high around 2010. Been decreasing since, but some are still done even 2023…

The real thermometer is the real estate. I am a bit concerned as house prices are slipping. Slowly, 1% here, another percent there. And sale of assets that had been “, sleeping beauties”.

Could’ve just been confirming whatever you said to make you look or feel good though right?

any sectors which are showing this trend in particular?

Meh. I posted somewhere on here about how much below list price all the new builds in central Taipei are going for. To me it looks more like people are coming to their senses that owning 10 properties that they’re never going to do anything with is a bad investment strategy in the long run than anything to do with China.

Do you have examples? Besides semiconductor -related stuff.

Just saying that leaving Taiwan because of risk of Chinese aggression is pointless because Taiwan is so vital to global shipping that such disruption is going to hurt your investment no matter where they are.

Somebody could go through the news or recent discussion on threads here or just ChatGPT it.