[quote=“Joschka”]Yes, PLEASE get away from talking politics or at the very least get away from talking economics. If England were Keynsian, they would understand that stimulus is what is needed and austerity is totally ANTI-Keynsian.
Reaganomics is exactly why the US is in such big trouble now (along with a Clinton allowing Glass-Stiegal to be repealed.)[/quote]
Our survey says MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH. You want the UK to spend money? Are you thinking straight man? What are we going to do? Build new houses? Get teenagers into jobs THEY want? Give people more personal debt? Labour spent the hell out of this economy, people are dumb, lessons are to be forgotten. Move along. Look at the rabbit, he is playing cards. At least he knows his future is uncertain.
Is there anything else? Oh yeah, Clinton put the US onto a great future but Dubbya wasted it by playing war with his mate Tony.
But it is backed up by debt, none of which is real, it is all imagined.[/quote]
THIS is how Europe works…
I also wonder what economics Joschka thinks we are using over here…[/quote]
You guys are NOT using economics, it’s all politics and protecting the interests of the rentiers. (But it’s the same in the US.)
Most of the younger economists have never studied Keynes so they don’t even know what they are talking about. The rest of the noise comes from the hired guns of the super-rich. All lies.
[quote=“Joschka”]
You guys are NOT using economics, it’s all politics and protecting the interests of the rentiers. (But it’s the same in the US.)
Most of the younger economists have never studied Keynes so they don’t even know what they are talking about. The rest of the noise comes from the hired guns of the super-rich. All lies.[/quote]
Ooh, you used French you rapscallion.
I’m sorry but maybe you could elaborate for me how exactly spending money will help the UK economy, because it seems that everyone apart from you has a different idea. Maybe bashing it down on here will be the best thing for the European economy. I will tweet Georgy boy a potted form of your wisdom…
[quote=“Okami”]After years of chest-thumping from the Euros, I can;t help feeling a bit of schadenfreude about all this.
I might feel differently when they cause a worldwide depression.[/quote]
Schadenfreude about what? I don’t quite get you. Germany’s exports are as high as never, we benefit a lot from the weak Euro
Unfortunately for the Brits, its still no Switzerland there. The population suffered a lot from it trying to be a banking state (especially in terms of property speculation).
They could have benefited a lot from the EU (and actually did) but it could have been much much better. The Churchill-pose Cameron takes right now is a thing of the past.
Britain might have a lower debt in terms of % of the GDP (few percent under France and Germany) but the outlook looks bad.
I have no doubt however that they will find a way out of it on the medium-long term.
Anything above 80% is considered unhealthy or hard(er) to recover.
Anyways, to get back to the original question of the OP; doing multiple conversions from TWD into Euro over time (as he needs 1500 Euro in June) is the best way to cope with “floating currency”, no matter the politics or other bs involved.
For years in the international press the Euros would go on and on how the Euro will become the reserve currency to outstrip the dollar as more and more countries joined. The only problem being that most gleefully overspent in their budgets and the EU went about setting up thousands of additional regulations. Then you had the financial chicanery of Goldman Sachs helping Greece cook the books good enough to join the Euro.
Then they went on about how America was in decline and how horrible 4% unemployment was and falsely denounced our medical system.
Remember the EU youtube videos?
Remember the EU parliament kicking journalists out of a public area so they wouldn’t be caught scamming on their per diem?
Remember how they alerted the Dutch and Irish that the treaty needed to be passed no matter how many times they had to vote on it?
How about 25% of the EU budget goes to one country for farm subsidies?
How about Spain’s green economy where solar panel farms were generating electricity at night?
Yeah F%^$ Europe, let them burn the whole place down again, then the adults from the other side of the Atlantic can come in and hold their hand yet again.
The thing that the above items all have in common is that they all have more chance in becoming the reserve currency than the Euro.
Yep, but where will your big smile be when a Euro is worth less than an ounce of sand? Merkel is on edge at the moment and rightly so, because if Greece leaves or any more countries become threaten to default on their debt, then Germany is going to have to be sharing the wealth.
That’s what you get with light-touch banking regulation through Gordon Brown and that useless dick Alan Greenspan.
Go on. List the benefits that the UK has been given for membership of the EU. I have to go out now, and next year I have to do something too, so I don’t have time to make any kind of meaningful list of disadvantages, but if you have a couple of minutes to hand now, I’m sure you can pretty much nail everything from your side of the argument.
[quote=“Okami”]Yeah F%^$ Europe, let them burn the whole place down again, then the adults from the other side of the Atlantic can come in and hold their hand yet again.[/quote]\
I think there are few things that annoy Brits more than anything else than this line from Americans. Just remember which country had no intention of joining the war and considered Britain a lost cause before the Battle of Britain, whilst gleefully watching from the sidelines. Until it’s little fishing harbour was attacked, that is.
Before this thread proceeds any further, may I take the liberty to point out that “euro” should not be capitalized.
Every single poster in this thread has written it as “Euro”, a common mistake that I see time and time again. However, it should no more be capitalized than the dollar, yen, pound, yuan, or any other currency.
[quote=“Okami”]For years in the international press the Euros would go on and on how the Euro will become the reserve currency to outstrip the dollar as more and more countries joined. The only problem being that most gleefully overspent in their budgets and the EU went about setting up thousands of additional regulations. Then you had the financial chicanery of Goldman Sachs helping Greece cook the books good enough to join the Euro.
[/quote] It is a major reserve currency now. Way above the DM or GDP used to be. Maybe you haven’t noticed that the USD is slowly declining?
IMF: Percentage of global currency reserves held in the particular currency
I doubt it that any system which has more than 300 million people under it could have no scamming or scandals or corruption cases.
Especially if its cultural differences spread across the board so much. That also goes for the political differences within each member state.
The so called Euro-crisis already had a big political fall-out across the member states (notable in Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal) but it didn’t all happen in one day.
But the Euro is still there, sorry to disappoint you.
[quote=“Okami”]
Yeah F%^$ Europe, let them burn the whole place down again, then the adults from the other side of the Atlantic can come in and hold their hand yet again.[/quote]
I wish you could have a discussion without such remarks, wherever you are from.
Personally I think the next big crisis will either come from China (labor related) or the US (debt related), NOT the euro-zone.
Super Hans, I suggest you look up the Lend Lease program and get back to me. America opinion was definitely split after the Treaty of Versailles and the US had no desire to keep you guys from killing each other again.
Engerim, I said the reserve currency, you know how the British pound and gold used to be. The sad fact is we may not have a euro for my much longer or it may be a totally different animal. It never made sense financially to invite the PIIGS into the EU. It made no sense that half the EU budget went to farm subsidies and half of those went to France. It was financial malpractice to invite Greece.
Right now the EU is making plays that will come back to haunt them. It’s bad enough that it’s opaque and self serving, but the undemocratic road they are taking is a omen for things to come just as the constant budget overuns by various member states were an omen.
My guess is the crisis’s go like this:
EU implosion
US debt realignment
China labor riots
Let’s imagine that there’s a street, and a big group of nasty guys have been trying to break into one of the houses. The chap from the original house has managed to beat them off his land and the guys are milling around, wondering what to do next. But sooner or later, it is clear that the nasty guys are going to try to pick on another house, probably that big white one that looks like it has some nice furniture in it and a big TV set.
So the guy from the big white house has been watching with interest, but doesn’t want to join in. However, he is really worried that his house is the next target, or at the very least, the goings on will affect house prices. So he says to the original guy “Hey, I don’t want no trouble or nothin’. But hey, you can use my stick and beat them off the street.
Oh, and you need to pay for the stick.”
So, lend lease was as much in the interest of the US as it was for it’s allies. But in the end, the US benefited a great deal more - it got a country which was on it’s knees and was taking the war back to Germany and Italy by itself to do it’s fighting for it, in order to help prevent the US from eventually joining the war. Then got it to pay back with interest.
The final payment was made in 2006.
Let’s not also forget the trade concessions Britain had to make and the political leverage the US was able to make on many parts of the world.
So yes, while the lend lease program indeed gave the UK, the USSR and China a lot of financial and material help, it wasn’t out of altruism. It was out of absolute necessity.
One of the important questions is, I suppose:
Will EURo fall down, but the NT$ not?
Do you think is good to go working in Taiwan, if one is from Europe?
[quote=“engerim”][quote=“Okami”]After years of chest-thumping from the Euros, I can;t help feeling a bit of schadenfreude about all this.
I might feel differently when they cause a worldwide depression.[/quote]
Schadenfreude about what? I don’t quite get you. Germany’s exports are as high as never, we benefit a lot from the weak Euro [/quote]
Not when you purchase your oil in U.S. dollars you don’t. That’s a major reason Germany is desperately trying to save the Euro. It needs it to maintain value so that it has a better exchange for U.S. dollars.
[quote=“sulavaca”][quote=“engerim”][quote=“Okami”]After years of chest-thumping from the Euros, I can;t help feeling a bit of schadenfreude about all this.
I might feel differently when they cause a worldwide depression.[/quote]
Schadenfreude about what? I don’t quite get you. Germany’s exports are as high as never, we benefit a lot from the weak Euro [/quote]
Not when you purchase your oil in U.S. dollars you don’t. That’s a major reason Germany is desperately trying to save the Euro. It needs it to maintain value so that it has a better exchange for U.S. dollars.[/quote]
Yes, strong currency fluctuations aren’t in the interest of anyone.
Whatever happens in 2012 the industry is at least more prepared compared to the US crash in 2008.
Personally I think there’s no need to “save the euro”, it will master “the crisis” just fine (I know people at the IMF).
Anyways if currency fluctuations are a big concern to anyone there are certificates (financial products that guarantee a certain rate at maturity) or you can do what I mentioned earlier (spread your selling/buying across time). You can model it based on previous rates if you don’t believe me
Anyways, politically speaking I’m sure the Euro Zone will do the best to support the US and vice versa.
[quote=“engerim”]Yes, strong currency fluctuations aren’t in the interest of anyone.
Whatever happens in 2012 the industry is at least more prepared compared to the US crash in 2008.
Personally I think there’s no need to “save the euro”, it will master “the crisis” just fine (I know people at the IMF).
Anyways if currency fluctuations are a big concern to anyone there are certificates (financial products that guarantee a certain rate at maturity) or you can do what I mentioned earlier (spread your selling/buying across time). You can model it based on previous rates if you don’t believe me
Anyways, politically speaking I’m sure the Euro Zone will do the best to support the US and vice versa.[/quote]
You speak of industry as if all companies, businesses and the like are all within one embodiment and that somehow it is greater prepared than the U.S. industry. I don’t quite understand this theory.
Spreading my purchasing of currency over time, in terms of U.S. dollars would not be maintaining the value of my money at all.
I purchase gold. It means I don’t have to pay attention to much at all regarding the economy and markets from day to day. In terms of exchange, it is the most stable currency I have known.
Its not any theory but just outlining the fact that companies prepared better for a potential 2012 crisis than it has happened in 2008 (subprime, Lehmann shock).
Meaning:
Slowing down on investments (make reserves, keep backlog orders)
Not hiring as fast as it was in the 2008 bubble
Not increasing pay as much as they would in similar “good looking” economic situations (remember unemployment in Germany is on an all time low, you’d expect salaries to grow now).
In early 2008 any economic institute predicted a growth for 2008 (prior to the subprime crisis which made it a terrible year)
I speak of worldwide, not US vs Europe or something. The US subprime crisis also affected Europe.
you are basically playing with volatility instead of easing the volatility curve if you make a “big buy” just once. Currency goes up and down over the year (free float)
Even for USD/TWD the volality was around 8% within last year. EUR/TWD was around 14%. Means you would have risked of loosing (or winning) up to 14% by buying Euros ‘at once’ (or 8% for USD/TWD).
Its a bit like roulette and you basically risk a lot instead of securing your currency rate.
Gold is not a currency and even gold can have sharp drops (especially if the economy is doing better than anticipated).
Its a good long term investment but a bad short term investment. Volatility of Gold was 44% this year with a sharp drop end of October.
The objective of the OP was to have Euros in the short to mid-term.
If you would have bought a lot of Gold between August and September (with USD price range of 1650 to 1900 USD per ounce) you would look at a loss right now (currently Gold is at 1593/ounce). But on the long run that could be good (but personally for me still too much playing on volatility). And you also need to consider inflation when you think about long term and that the USD (gold trading currency) might loose more value.
[quote=“engerim”]
…Even for USD/TWD the volality was around 8% within last year. EUR/TWD was around 14%. Means you would have risked of losing (or winning) up to 14% by buying Euros ‘at once’ (or 8% for USD/TWD).Its a bit like roulette and you basically risk a lot instead of securing your currency rate…[/quote]
[quote=“engerim”]Gold is not a currency and even gold can have sharp drops (especially if the economy is doing better than anticipated).
Its a good long term investment but a bad short term investment. Volatility of Gold was 44% this year with a sharp drop end of October.[/quote]
I disagree there I’m afraid. Volatility is higher this year, true, and if you had bought gold at the peak this year in terms of U.S.D. then you would be down right now. However if the point you put forward is that people should stagger their dollar denominated investments over time to decrease volatility, or stabilize their purchase price, then the result is that on a year to year basis that person will be losing money/value. If the same is done for gold, then they will be stabilizing, or even increasing their value.
If someone were more familiar with their intended market i.e. Gold vs U.S.D and any other currency, then they would make more dollar denominated profit from having invested in gold than by switching between any other paper denominated currencies. That is due to the fact that gold’s general trend is up against any other fiat currency in the world.
Put another way, or in a personal way to be specific, I don’t know anyone personally who is making around 50% profit in fiat terms, every year for the past five years by trading fiat for fiat; whereas I do that quite regularly with gold compared with U.S.D .
Not to give the wrong idea though. I do not trade my gold for fiat as a general rule. I don’t believe in fiat as a good mid to long term investment. As a short term investment, as you put it, it might be marginally profitable, but remember this is bare market trading and when the general trade is down, and the payoffs are minimal, then this is generally not good advice.
sulavaca, I agree with you, but read my post again, its about short-mid term protection about currency volatility (which is 3 months to 2 years for me).
Its not about investing in euros or in gold (you brought the gold up and I just agreed its a good investment for a LONG term).
The question I was answering is the one from Craig:
[quote]
“I need to change money into around 1500 Euros for an upcoming trip that needs to be paid for in Euros. Should I wait? Change half now and half later to hedge my bets? Wait?”[/quote]
What would be your method in his situation? Buy gold? I don’t think so.
