Somalia the Failed State (and its pirates)

Judging by recent headlines, Somalia is getting worse and worse.

First they seize a cargo ship full of guns and tanks. When they realize they need fuel, they steal a Saudi oil tanker

Now Islamist rebels are getting close to taking over the entire country. In the area’s they control, they stoned a 13 year old girl to death for being raped and whipped 32 (25 women and 7 men) for dancing.

With major ship traffic going past Yemen and through the Gulf of Aden, how long until a consortium of Western powers really gets together to stop these pirate attacks? A replay of the 17th century Caribbean except with Zodiacs and RPG’s instead of cannons and swashbucklers.

So will Somalia be the first Humanitarian intervention of President-Elect Obama’s administration? The Islamic Courts Union is making progress north against the current government. Since the US already has a history of intervening in the region to stabilize the Gulf of Aden, will we see more direct support against the ICU?

Can’t be worse than Congo, where hundreds of thousands of women and girls have been raped with dicks, guns, knives, sticks and rocks, often by their own family members, in a country where a large percentage of the men now feel the violent abuse of women is an acceptable means of showing how tough they are and it will take decades to try to rehabilitate these basket cases (male and female).

well, apart from the fact that you can’t run a tank on crude oil, the pirates have done fairly well, i guess. not that they have much connection with the ICU, they’re just taking ships for the ransom money (they have hostages, which they treat well, so no-one is blowing them up). the French special forces did take out one lot of pirates AFTER they had paid the ransom and got the ship and their people back, in a little-publicised incident last year.

but it is a failed state, and the ICU is trying to impose a fundamentalist lifestyle that many in Somalia actually appreciate, but I bet many others don’t.

But I’m not sure that the USA wants to do too much there after the fuss over that Blackhawk Down movie… does Obama want another Afghanistan? he’s already trying hard to draw down numbers in Iraq quickly so he can go after Osama (doesn’t want his name confused any more, i guess).

Did you miss the US-backed Ethiopian intervention in Somalia? Began two years ago because the ICU was about to boot out the rump gov’t and maybe take control of the entire country (for the first time in decades). The Ethiopians have not been having a good time and can’t wait to get out. When they go, an AU force is scheduled to take their place, but at 3~4,000 strong, won’t hold the capital, nevermind the rest of the country.

Obama’s taken careful note of all the mistakes of the Clinton presidency: will he repeat his blunder in Somalia? I doubt it. This is something any sizable collection of 2nd rate frigates should be able to handle, if taken seriously. Let the EU, Japan, China, Australia and Canada take care of it. Putting down pirates is reasonably safe, and would play well in risk-averse polities.

Btw, the Somalis claim that the piracy began after other nations exploited the lack of a functional gov’t to come and vacuum up all the fish off their coast. They claim this hit the fishermen pretty hard, and that they then began arming themselves and trying to drive off the ‘fishing pirates’. One thing led to another, and here we are.

There are other places with healthy Piracy driven economies, such as parts of Indonesia and the Philippines I believe. Perhaps the Somalis could branch out into training for these lesser compatriots? :raspberry:

[quote=“Jaboney”]

Did you miss the US-backed Ethiopian intervention in Somalia? Began two years ago because the ICU was about to boot out the rump gov’t and maybe take control of the entire country (for the first time in decades). The Ethiopians have not been having a good time and can’t wait to get out. When they go, an AU force is scheduled to take their place, but at 3~4,000 strong, won’t hold the capital, nevermind the rest of the country. [/quote]

Didn’t miss it, I just tried to mention it vaguely in the “history of intervening in the region” part. We have intervened in: Operation Restore Hope (December 1992 to May 1993), Operation Gothic Serpent (Better known as the Battle of Mogadishu, Oct 3-4, 1993), Operation United Shield (January 1995 to March 1995), etc etc.

The blunder was withdrawing the Marines from Somalia in May of 1993 and turning control over to the UN. UNOSOM was horribly unprepared to deal with the actual realities on the ground. From what I’ve read, they made several horrible decisions, including that they wouldn’t accept any governmental coalition with Mohamed Farrah Aidid. Given that he was the largest and most powerful warlord in a clan system, that was bad. They convinced the US to send Special Forces to catch Aidid and that lead to Black Hawk down.

I don’t know that I agree about how easy it would be to put down the pirates. From the newspaper reports I’ve read, they are using fast rubber boats, so unless you use the frigates to act as escorts, then there will still be attacks. There is a lot of traffic that goes through there…

[quote]
Btw, the Somalis claim that the piracy began after other nations exploited the lack of a functional gov’t to come and vacuum up all the fish off their coast. They claim this hit the fishermen pretty hard, and that they then began arming themselves and trying to drive off the ‘fishing pirates’. One thing led to another, and here we are.[/quote]

Agreed. Then they realized no one was paying attention and they could ransom off the boats they stole. 1 day’s successful work and they are set for life.

The day after seizing a massive Saudi tanker, Somali pirates seized an addition pair of vessels. That makes for a total of something like 300 vessels seized over the past year.

Such a situation deserves serious attention. Looks like it’s now getting it.

[quote=“BBC: India ‘sinks Somali pirate ship’”]The Indian navy has said that one of its warships in the Gulf of Aden has destroyed a ship belonging to pirates operating off the coast of Somalia.

The INS Tabar opened fire on a pirate “mother ship” after it came under attack, a government statement said. [/quote]

The Indians are claiming that they first came under fire.
I doubt it.
The current rules of engagement constrain patrol vessels to returning fire only. Were the pirates stupid enough to fire on a frigate? Maybe

"Geez… that skinny gray ship looks nice and fast, and it’s got GUNS. Imagine how many ships we could hijack if we had one of them? "

[quote]Were the pirates stupid enough to fire on a frigate? Maybe…

[/quote]
Maybe. The opened fire on the HMS Cumberland, too.

Score: -3 to the pirates. Daft buggers, but its a lot of money we’re talking about and they’re getting desperate as they know their high jinks are coming to an end soon. Making hay while the sun shines.

[quote=“sandman”]Daft buggers, but its a lot of money we’re talking about and they’re getting desperate as they know their high jinks are coming to an end soon. Making hay while the sun shines.[/quote]A few reports have tied the pirates to the provisional gov’t (backed by the US and Ethiopians). Wonderful example of unintended consequences, and of finding yourself between a rock and a hard place.

Do you:
a) stand aside while Islamists unite the country by force and impose draconian rule (internally bad), or
b) prop up a failed gov’t, perpetuate a failed state, and endure pirate attacks (externally bad), or
c) try something else, perhaps occupying the country?

I expect c) will prove to be too expensive/ unpopular, and someone else’s pain (a) will prove easier to endure/ignore than your own (b).

Something you didn’t mention, Sandman: The Russian frigate Neustrashimy was also involved in the operation to capture the suspects.. Two days, and the British, Russians and Indians all see action (among others, no doubt). A nice example of what Thomas Barnett points to as ‘core’-actors combining to overwhelm bad actors in the ‘gap’.

If these guys are firing on destroyers and frigates, isn’t it just a better idea to sink their pirate vessels, rather than approach them in little launches like the Royal Marines did the other day? That resulted in a bit of a shooting match. No point in getting killed over the head of it all. Just lob a few 4.5" shells at them. Then there’s less chance of having your iPod confiscated, or being made to cry on television.

Obviously better to point the gun away from the ship.

Pirate problems? Drive them out with mercenaries. Not a great idea.

[quote=“Independent”]The American security company Blackwater is planning to cash in on the rising threat of piracy on the high seas by launching a flotilla of gunboats for hire by the shipping companies.

The firm, which gained international notoriety when its staff killed civilians in Iraq, has already equipped one vessel, called The McArthur, which will carry up to 40 armed guards and have a landing pad for an attack helicopter.

The McArthur, a former survey ship, arrives in the Gulf of Aden, the scene of the recent high-profile hijackings and shootouts with Somali pirates, at the end of the year. It is to be joined by three or four similar vessels over next year to form the company’s private navy.[/quote]

If I was the owner of a large cargo vessel passing through those waters I would consider the use of armed escorts. I don’t really see the use of having unarmed guards placed on the ships. If the mercenaries stay on their own ships and just provide escort through the troubled waters, there should be no problems with insurance companies.

I did enjoy this quote from the article:

[quote=“Lord Lucan”]If these guys are firing on destroyers and frigates, isn’t it just a better idea to sink their pirate vessels, rather than approach them in little launches like the Royal Marines did the other day? That resulted in a bit of a shooting match. No point in getting killed over the head of it all. Just lob a few 4.5" shells at them. Then there’s less chance of having your iPod confiscated, or being made to cry on television.

Obviously better to point the gun away from the ship.[/quote]

if you’re in a large ship faced with short range unguided missiles (RPGs are effectively that), then you stand off beyond missile range and send in small boats with the necessary counter-forces. small vessels are much more manoeuvrable in the face of an RPG attack, and are obviously much harder to hit than a 100m long side of a barn. you stand a good chance of capturing some of the enemy, too (as the Brits did: 8 hijackers are now in custody in Kenya).

lobbing 4.5 " shells is not as effective as it sounds. for one, they have a slow rate of fire, and for two, they are a lot more expensive than alternatives.

better to put the vessel down with a .50 cal machine gun, with a high rate of fire so you can walk the rounds onto the target. a .50 cal round will be more than enough to shred the decking or hull of any non-armoured ship, and a good burst will turn any normal vessel into a colander quick-smart.

the gun is pointing backwards so it doesn’t get water down the barrel. not sure that picture came from the same area: perhaps a training mission?

Oops?

[quote=“BBC”]
Indian navy ‘sank Thai trawler’

The owner of a Thai fishing trawler has said the Indian navy sank it off Somalia’s coast last week after wrongly assuming it was a pirate “mother ship”.

Wicharn Sirichaiekawat said the Indian frigate had attacked the Ekawat Nava 5 while it was being hijacked by pirates.

He said one of the crew had been found alive after six days in the Gulf of Aden, but that another 14 were missing.

The Indian navy has insisted the vessel fired in self-defence at a pirate ship which had been stacked with explosives. [/quote]

I liked the Ron Paul idea of the US government issuing Letter of Marque and Reprisal to private businesses to hunt down the pirates. Maybe the goverment could just sell them - private enterprise would invent financial products where privateers could borrow based on their future cut of (re)captured booty, this would allow people of modest means to set themselves up in the privateering business thus stimulating the economy. Come to think of it you could probably recruit of a few of the pirates, they no doubt have all the right skills.

Once you’ve got a good privateer fleet, you could set them loose on the ICU. Best thing is the US wouldn’t be at war and wouldn’t need to spend any money. In fact Letters of Marque and Reprisal would be very lucrative. And you wouldn’t have to worry about the Geneva Convention either, neither pirates nor privateers are covered by it.

would all such ships need to be based in Raleigh?

[quote=“KingZog”]I liked the Ron Paul idea of the US government issuing Letter of Marque and Reprisal to private businesses to hunt down the pirates. Maybe the goverment could just sell them - private enterprise would invent financial products where privateers could borrow based on their future cut of (re)captured booty, this would allow people of modest means to set themselves up in the privateering business thus stimulating the economy. Come to think of it you could probably recruit of a few of the pirates, they no doubt have all the right skills.

Once you’ve got a good privateer fleet, you could set them loose on the ICU. Best thing is the US wouldn’t be at war and wouldn’t need to spend any money. In fact Letters of Marque and Reprisal would be very lucrative. And you wouldn’t have to worry about the Geneva Convention either, neither pirates nor privateers are covered by it.[/quote]

Oh I’m a broken man on a Halifax pier,
The last of Barrett’s Privateers

With cat-like tread, Upon our prey we steal;
In silence dread, Our cautious way we feel.
No sound at all! We never speak a word;
A fly’s foot-fall Would be distinctly heard!

Come, friends, who plough the sea,
Truce to navigation; Take another station;
Let’s vary piracee With a little burglaree!

With cat-like tread, Upon our prey we steal,
In silence dread, Our cautious way we feel.

I’m not from Penzance, I don’t recognise it.