An old saying goes:
“Sell in May and walk away”.
Sell in May? Better to have sold in January this year.
Actually, I am thankful that I finally dumped my Pfizer and Cisco ( 
) a few months ago. I had no idea the market would keep going down. I was just finally cutting my losses and getting rid of losers in order to obtain cash for some better prospects. I haven’t bought anything else yet, so that’s fine, but the way things have been going I almost wish I had sold my entire portfolio (including the index funds, which are supposed to be “safe” but have also taken a beating in this downturn).
Oh well, it can’t go down forever.
[quote=“Mother Theresa”]Sell in May? Better to have sold in January this year.
Actually, I am thankful that I finally dumped my Pfizer and Cisco ( ) a few months ago. I had no idea the market would keep going down. I was just finally cutting my losses and getting rid of losers in order to obtain cash for some better prospects. I haven’t bought anything else yet, so that’s fine, but the way things have been going I almost wish I had sold my entire portfolio (including the index funds, which are supposed to be “safe” but have also taken a beating in this downturn).
Oh well, it can’t go down forever.[/quote]
Pharma and PFE in particular are among the most hated of all that get hated on these days…BUT, PFE is a HUGE company and they aren’t going anywhere…except maybe to buy MRK…I’m buying PFE.
I am very happy with my VTSMX…up 25% in less than two years. I do not ever plan to sell it. And my big MO is riding high after sitting in the toilet 3 years ago and looks to break off kraft and shoot to 80-90$. My dividend for MO now is more than my regular investments were 3 years ago.
Buy should be followed by hold. There are still some great dividend plays out there…check out oil tanker stocks…some at 9%
If you want to know where the money is going to go, get a subscription to AARP.
Peace
I should have posted this Wednesday when I read the story-but here goes…and who knows if it is correct, but it looks like further downside (maybe only a little) ahead…yet, many pundits are predicting up (and many down)-so the following is not a prediction, just interesting :s
Nasdaq’s death cross raises a yellow flag
marketwatch.com/news/image.a … =204&guid={7EC89492-DAEF-4F81-8A64-5C38C65CD1D6}
But doesn’t this mean that it might be a great time to invest in, say, an S&P 500 Index fund, since the 500 is down so much more than before?
But doesn’t this mean that it might be a great time to invest in, say, an S&P 500 Index fund, since the 500 is down so much more than before?[/quote]
yes it does…if you have a long term outlook.
I don’t think the long term technicals for the NASDAQ look all that well. It has ben in a test at 2200, and may be heading south a bit. The sides really look line an attractive place for your money.
However, i would follow the MACD closely.
For the SPX I see support at 1100, which might be a good place to add a bit.
i ahve not done this for 2 years, so KEA might have the best view.
Thanks for the replies, jdsmith and mr. he.
Yes, I do have a long-term outlook.
Any ideas (or just opinions) if the S&P 500 will go down any more?
I was thinking it might be good to invest some money in a Vanguard 500 index fund and then dollar-cost-average over the next few months (or even the next year), especially if the 500 will be down this year.
Any thoughts on Vanguard vs. Fidelity index funds? I know that both companies were trying to lower their operating expenses.
[quote=“fee”]Thanks for the replies, jdsmith and mr. he.
Yes, I do have a long-term outlook.
Any ideas (or just opinions) if the S&P 500 will go down any more?
I was thinking it might be good to invest some money in a Vanguard 500 index fund and then dollar-cost-average over the next few months (or even the next year), especially if the 500 will be down this year.
Any thoughts on Vanguard vs. Fidelity index funds? I know that both companies were trying to lower their operating expenses.[/quote]
The Van 500 will go up and down, then down, then up…it doesn’t matter. Dont even try to time to the market. Get in when you can.
I use the Vanguard VTSMX, total stock market index. The problem with the 500 is that so many people play them. I prefer a smaller, less popular fund /index.
I have a set amount that I feed my VTSMX every other month. It’s a no brainer investment, as in it takes no will power. Down is cheaper, up is ok.
I love telling people that I first got in during the fall of 2002, when the market was in the absolute toilet. 
Boy am I happy now.
good luck
Well, medium-term to long-term position trading is fraught with difficulties. I won’t presume to predict either way.
I will add a few more notes…
-the chart I linked is Nas…if it falls, the S&P will go down. The death cross is a long term indicator, although it seems to be on an upward trend. :loco:
-It’s a money management/risk issue. Follow the trend as you perceive and be patient, and know your stops/target. Getting in now is more of a gamble since the market has already bounced a bit off the late April bottoms…it’s sitting below resistance-so may push through or consolidate lower.
-Another good article I read recently was predicting a move to 9700 on the Dow in Summer with a return to near 11,000 later in the year. 
Not that I believe it… 
-TW long margin right now is at historical low levels, while QFII are buying (or perhaps merely reweighting). Volume has been small for ages. Retail investors are on the sidelines. Either they jump in now, or later. They will return. Mr. He is an expert on all this.
-Short term TW has been trending up, with high daily KD, indifferent weekly/monthly.
-TW will change the down-tick shorting law in a few months which will increase volatility and daily volume.
here’s a good article for you:
biz.yahoo.com/ms/050426/132689.html?.v=1
Why not just buy ETF’s?
That way you can get in at small amounts and due to teh deep liquidity, getting out is very very easy.
I love the fixed amount per month idea. Timing the market is very hard, so better not bother, unless you are a pro. (A pro is a fund manager or a prop trader).
Low long margin - foreigners buying.
There is a strong correlation between long margin and the TAIEX. They tend to move together. In other words, if the long margin starts to rise, you should buy. If you think it will rise, then buy into any dip you can get across, or just buy.
Also, the retail investors here are sheep, following QFII, SITC’s and the props. If you get in before they do, then you will do well - or better than them.
QFII net buying in itself does not have a very strong correlation with the TAIEX.
How are short margins, Kea?
Has anybody found a cheap and easy way to trade U.S. stocks in Taipei? I have asked around and have found several companies that will allow me to open a brokerage account in Hong Kong through their agency but the minimum trade fee is 200.00 U.S. (buy and sell) This is obviously unacceptable. I have been here several years and don’t have a U.S. account any longer but maybe that is the only option. I also took a look at opening a Scottrade account but it will mean making myself subject to capital gains, etc. There must be some easy way to trade online or in person and still avoid the U.S. - B.S. Any information will be appreciated. Thanks
well, if you are taiwanese you can avoid cvap gains tax…but not dividends.
If not, married? use your wife’s name…os sister in law
I’m not certain how putting stock in someone else’s name avoids capital gains. They have to pay if it’s in their name. My query still stands.
Great info, everyone. Thanks a lot.
I’ve always wondered about this. Taiwanese citizens don’t pay any capital gains taxes on their investments? Is this true?
Also, Taiwanese citizens don’t pay any taxes on the interest they earn in bank accounts (and CDs?), as long as it is under a certain amount (NT$ 250,000 ???). Is this correct?
[quote]
The Van 500 will go up and down, then down, then up…it doesn’t matter. Dont even try to time to the market. Get in when you can.
I use the Vanguard VTSMX, total stock market index. The problem with the 500 is that so many people play them. I prefer a smaller, less popular fund /index. [/quote]
Thanks again for the info and advice, jdsmith. Yeah, I am going to get in and then just DCA. Will look at the VTSMX, too.
You prefer Vanguard to Fidelity? I know Vanguard is the granddaddy of index funds, but I think Fidelity is trying lower operating expenses to be competitive. I will still probably go with Vanguard, but any thoughts are welcome.
Great info. Thanks again to all.
I only know for sure, half the equation:
AFAIK, A TWense, buying and selling US stocks, pays taxes in the US only if the stock pays a dividend, and then it’s like 30%. There are no cap gains tax.
However, does that TWenese pay cap gains taxes IN Taiwan from the sale of US stocks? Dunno.
Thanks for the information. I’m not an accountant and taxes scare the hell out of me. I seem to recall a number years ago when I was trading often that I was taxed on the difference between my buy and sell figure at my captal gain rate - not my ordinary income rate. I admit that I am very uncertain about this. I have just emailed my U.S. accountant that used to handle my taxes and asked for some information. I will share it when it arrives.
An important concept is the possibility that a Taiwanese that has never been to the U.S. and has no S.S. or Tax ID number could buy and then sell U.S. stock, recieve income (not dividends) derived from the sale of that U.S. investment and be able to avoid paying tax in the U.S., whether as ordinary income or as CG. This would be most amazing. I , like you, am not certain if they would be taxed in Taiwan but I am reasonably certain that they would be. However, it is doubtful that any information is exchanged between the U.S. brokerage and the Taiwan government as it is exchanged between the brokerage and the U.S. government. I will defer this until I get some specific info from the money guy.
Anyway, I would still like to find something similar to Scottrade within Taiwan or elsewhere that would avoid the U.S. tax vultures. I don’t mind paying my taxes but when there are options, I like to take them as long as they are legal. Thanks again. If anyone else has some solid information it would sure be appreciated.
[quote=“Enigma”]Thanks for the information. I’m not an accountant and taxes scare the hell out of me. I seem to recall a number years ago when I was trading often that I was taxed on the difference between my buy and sell figure at my captal gain rate - not my ordinary income rate. I admit that I am very uncertain about this. I have just emailed my U.S. accountant that used to handle my taxes and asked for some information. I will share it when it arrives.
An important concept is the possibility that a Taiwanese that has never been to the U.S. and has no S.S. or Tax ID number could buy and then sell U.S. stock, recieve income (not dividends) derived from the sale of that U.S. investment and be able to avoid paying tax in the U.S., whether as ordinary income or as CG. This would be most amazing. I , like you, am not certain if they would be taxed in Taiwan but I am reasonably certain that they would be. However, it is doubtful that any information is exchanged between the U.S. brokerage and the Taiwan government as it is exchanged between the brokerage and the U.S. government. I will defer this until I get some specific info from the money guy.
Anyway, I would still like to find something similar to Scottrade within Taiwan or elsewhere that would avoid the U.S. tax vultures. I don’t mind paying my taxes but when there are options, I like to take them as long as they are legal. Thanks again. If anyone else has some solid information it would sure be appreciated.[/quote]
A tax ID number is easy enough to get. The real question is are you american? If yes, you can escape paying taxes, by not paying them…problem is, what if you get caught?
AFAIK, there is NO WAY for a foreigner to escape the dividend taxes on US stocks.
Yes, I am American. Yes, I understand that a Tax ID is very easy to obtain. It can be done on-line. A tax ID number is not the issue nor the problem. My Taiwan wife NOT having to pay the tax was the issue as outlined in my earlier post. I simply do not believe this is possible. I stated that I will only take options involving taxes that are legal. One of those options is to decclare by informational return my off-shore (Taiwan) income. (tax exempt up to 80,000 U.S. per year) I am less certain if income derived from sale of stock and received entirely outside the U.S. is also exempt income. Also, if it is, how and where can it be done. These are the questions being posed to my accountant.