If there was a moment when hope for democracy was lost in Sudan, it was when this transitional constitution was agreed to. The military was allowed to run the country for the first part of the transition. “We still have not achieved what we are fighting for,” Sara Abdelgalil, then a spokesperson for the Sudanese Professionals Association, which helped organize the protests, told Foreign Policy in 2019. “Omar al-Bashir is not there, but the regime itself is still there. Objective one has not been achieved. Objective two has not been achieved, which is a civilian government. It’s like having a diversion in the middle of your journey.”
I’m glad you started this, I just read an article about it and posted in a Ukraine thread
I have many students from the Sudan and South Sudan. This is going to suck. Same as with the Yemeni kids. Ugh. Poor kids. This is how I keep up. Yay flob!
Some more background to get us started:
The United States has left a vacuum in Africa and now its rivals have rushed in. It is not too late for America to offer the African continent what it really wants: peace, prosperity, recognition, and democracy.
Ah, so this is where the new war will be. I’m going with Sudan and the DRCongo, cuz EV batteries, ie, cobalt.
In conclusion, the political turmoil between the RSF and SAF in Sudan is much more complex than it appears. While it may appear to be a straightforward issue of power struggles, the underlying factors, as briefly indicated above, risk complicating the situation and rendering any peace initiatives useless. Given the RSF’s history and operations, existing conflicts, and the international community’s involvement, addressing and maintaining stability in Sudan will require very close policy coordination between Egypt, KSA, the UAE, Russia, the USA, and Israel.
Has Sudan ever not been in chaos?
I know folks from there, good people and several dad’s with multiple masters degrees, so gonna go with yeah. But the toilet of Africa flushes north through Libya and Sudan is in the way.
Nice read from the links, sorry to see so many killed in the prior years and has become worse
It is awful. Thanks for reading.
The conflict in Yemen looks like it has concluded, so let’s start another 3rd world conflict.
Was it Amnesty International that said any conflict on the planet has the CIA’s fingerprints on it?
I haven’t followed up on it. My students say Saudi Arabia just met with the Houthis. I really hope it brings an end to the conflict as the grain and wheat they depend on coming from Ukraine is becoming more of an uncertainty.
Sudan is experiencing a large outbreak of dengue fever and malaria, Abid noted, which makes the military occupation of the health lab all the more dangerous.
Hopefully the war comes to end soon.
After-all, one is disturbed at war anywhere, but especially in Sudan. One feels since one and all are all from Sudan.
The origins of humanity was genealogically observed from Sudan…
Yes, they killed a lot of people sounds like a bad war much worse than other current conflicts but does not get the big news.
After the Saudi-Iran meeting, not too surprising.
Time to bug out.
Zeihan was talking about Egypt, in that they are sitting on a bunch of weaponry that could go somewhere, Russia, or now, maybe Sudan.
The overarching question of whether the rapidly developing conflict in Sudan can be brought to an end by peaceful negotiations or not is difficult to predict. Nevertheless, the deteriorating situation brings a set of serious threats and risks to Egypt which may oblige Cairo to intervene militarily or at least provide full support and backup to Sudan’s SAF. Despite this challenging decision, the situation can still be a golden opportunity for Egypt to realign its interests and foreign policy with global powers. For instance, on one hand Egypt is clearly in favour of supporting the SAF. On the other hand, the United States (US) has traditionally valued civilian and democratic ruling, which the SAF’s leader, general al-Burhan, apparently intended to pursue by handing the rulership of Sudan to civilians under an agreed timeframe – one of the reasons for the dispute with the RSF in the first place. Therefore, the US and Egypt have a clear opportunity to enhance bilateral relations and reinforce strategic cooperation over Sudan after years of diversion between both sides on regional issues. This will not only benefit the overall security and stability in Sudan as well as enhance cooperation between the US and Egypt, but also help in balancing of global powers in Middle East’s in times where some of the GCC countries are looking toward China as well as indirectly supporting Russia. Otherwise, in context of the regional political engagements and recent developments, the Egyptian administration may view the alignment of its the strategic interests with Russia over the Sudan crisis.
Big news day.
President Biden’s executive order, while lacking a typical annex which lists specific individuals or entities facing immediate sanctions, is a warning to those involved in or assisting either side in the current conflict in Sudan, as it indicates that new designations will likely come soon, sanctions experts said.
I thought China was up to its elbows in Sudan?
And yes, looks like China has a bit of an interest in the region if one measures interest in weapons sales.
A regional humanitarian crisis
Should the war become protracted, another humanitarian and development disaster in a region of the world already struggling with drought and chronic instability will be assured, straining international assistance budgets and increasing vulnerabilities across the entire Horn of Africa.
Even before the latest violence, one third of Sudan’s population, more than 15 million people, faced acute food insecurity. An estimated 3.7 million Sudanese were internally displaced and largely dependent on humanitarian assistance, much of which has been interrupted by the violence. Millions more are now at risk, with strategies for community resilience undermined by the wanton destruction that has already taken place.
As of 1 May, an estimated 114,000 people have crossed Sudan’s land borders, entering six of Sudan’s neighbouring states. Those that left by sea to Saudi Arabia are mostly dual or third country nationals. The United Nations is planning for more than 800,000 Sudanese to potentially leave the country. From a population of more than 40 million, this is relatively few, but the effects of forced migration may still ripple out worldwide.
Adverse consequences could be felt in South Sudan, an already fragile country, and its far-flung diaspora, including Australians of South Sudanese heritage.
While most displaced will seek refuge in neighbouring countries, others may have to look further afield. Sudan is also an important host state for refugees fleeing other conflicts: a million people were recognised refugees in Sudan before 15 April. Some of these refugees, now potentially forced to be on the move, may be reluctant, unable, or unwilling, to return to their countries of origin. Should the fighting worsen, the numbers of displaced and refugees will only grow.
The country next most affected by turmoil in Sudan is South Sudan, which became independent from Sudan in 2011. Historic, cultural, economic, and social ties between the two countries endure. Many of the refugees hosted by Sudan are South Sudanese; many other South Sudanese continue to live north of the border.
South Sudan has itself been plagued by instability, and its ongoing political transition is constantly at risk of stalling. In recent years, Sudan has played a generally helpful, if sometimes heavy-handed, role in trying to address South Sudan’s political problems. But if Sudan is consumed by war, then the mediating contribution it can make to peace in South Sudan may well diminish, with adverse consequences for an already fragile country and its far-flung diaspora, including Australians of South Sudanese heritage.
Sudan is an increasingly important gold producer, ranking in the top 20 (by some estimates, the top 10) of gold producers worldwide. The sector has attracted some Australian mining interest. But true production figures are hard to know, as much of Sudan’s gold disappears to illicit markets, financing conflict at home and in the war in Ukraine.
Should the violence continue or intensify, incentives to divert Sudan’s legal gold production will grow further, exacerbating the commingling of conflict gold in legal markets, as Sudan’s conflict protagonists seek to launder ore rather than see the proceeds return to the government budget.
Sudan’s vast agricultural potential for wheat production has long drawn attention. The war in Ukraine prompted a new effort to increase Sudan’s wheat production to help off-set higher prices as a result of export disruption from Ukraine.
A longer-term aspiration was for Sudan to itself become a wheat exporter. A new war makes neither ambition likely to be realised, while complicating the already fragile food supply chains in the region. Sudan never became a major wheat producer, but as recent years have shown, global markets are vulnerable to even distant shocks, with demand increasing and supply falling. Few consumers would welcome even higher prices.