Taipei County Election

Who will win in Taipei County?

  • Chou Shi-Wei (KMT)
  • Lou Wen-Jia (DPP)
  • Lou Wen-Jia (DPP) by a small amount with allegations of fraud and no evidence

0 voters

Taipei Times recently printed 2 articles on Sunday and Monday stating
that the DPP Poll Center claims that the Taipei County race is close
as opposed to what the United Daily News poll says which is that Chou
is leading by 20 points.

Additionally a professor and a researcher said that the race was close
and the UDN poll was biased.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2005/11/06/2003278962

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2005/11/07/2003279096

But I think it should also be noted that TVBS has Chou ahead by 15
points, and ERA has him ahead by 9 points. A poll director also told
me that most centers have Chou ahead by about 10 points.

In the 2004 Presidential election, the DPP poll said that Chen would
win on 3.18 and 3.19, while other media polls said on 3.18 that Lien
was ahead by 6 to 10 points before the 319 incident.

http://www.romanization.com/taiwan_election/election.html

Here is a typical Pro-Green academic paper written after the election.
These papers usually selectively quote polls on certain days before
3.10 and not on 3.18 and 3.19 to make their claim that the 319
incident didn’t impact the election. Most of these papers love the
China Times poll on 3.1 which has Chen ahead by 2 points.

However, I asked the China Times Editor-In-Chief what their poll said
on 3.18 (no poll on 3.19), and he said that they had Lien ahead by 6
points. However, their poll info after 3.10 was never released to the
public, so the China Times poll on 3.1 is often used to say that other
polls were wrong.

Someone from the DPP Campaign HQ told me shortly after the election
that the DPP poll had Chen ahead unlike the unfair pro-China polls, so
therefore the official results confirmed her belief that the DPP poll
was correct.

However, on 3.22, DPP legislator Shen Fu-Hsiung said in a China Times
interview that the DPP poll before the election said that Chen-Lu was
behind by 10 points as of 3.18.

Of course, we all know that there were allegations of fraud by the Pan
Blue camp without any evidence.

In 2001 Taipei County election, the TVBS poll had incumbent Su
Tseng-Chang ahead in the poll 44-41 before the election, and the
official results came out 44-41 in favour of him. However, the media
reported that there were allegations of fraud and very high election
turn out rates at voting stations. I’ve also spoken to people (not
necessarily Pan Blue people) in Taipei County that say that many
people were saying that Su cheated in that election.

Also noteworthy is that recently, there was a report in UDN, that they
are removing the rule that ID’s in Taiwan need to be stamped in the
back with the a unique stamp just for the election after someone has
voted to prevent repeat voting by people.

After the Presidential Election last year, the KMT collected ID’s by
people who did not vote (did not have the stamp on the ID) and used
them to compare them to the voter lists to see if their ballot had been
cast for them.

Polls done by media on the year end elections also have the KMT
candidate ahead of the DPP candidate by a substantial amount (10
points or so) is other cities and counties other than Taipei County,
but the DPP is insisting that the Taipei County election is close. Why
are they focusing on Taipei County and not other places?

This reminds me of the Presidential election last year when the DPP
was saying that the election was close, when most polls had them
behind by quite a bit before the 319 incident. But of course, we all
think differently of polls and polls from certain sources.

What are your guys thoughts on this Taipei County election and the
possibility of foul play?

Today’s article on the CEC’s decision.

chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/deta … 1694&GRP=B
taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ … 2003279520

Like I said in the first post, the purpose of the stamp is to prevent voters from voting twice as I’ve been told by election staff. The logic proposed by the Green camp in these two articles sounds funny to me.

How does marking the ID lead easily to vote rigging when in fact it’s supposed to make it harder?

How does not marking the ID really cut down on vote buying practices?Even if that is really one of the reasons, it’s still not a very direct measure to cut down on vote buying.

In the Presidential Election last year the CEC ruled that Presidential balltos found in the Referendum box were still legal, leading people to believe that this left room for fraud. It looks like the CEC is leaving room for vote fraud again.

It seems that things are getting more interesting leading up to this election.

The word is definitely out in the opposition camp from top to bottom that the DPP is going to cheat in the Taipei County election, and pan blue camp is actually taking some efforts to stop the fraud this time around.

It looks like the Pan Blue camp is finally figuring out little by little that they need to work a lot harder to actually make sure that they win the elections they’re supposed to win.

A couple of the speakers at the rally said that “We can’t get cheated by the DPP again…” or something to that effect which the crowd reacted well to.

The atmosphere is a lot different than the 2004 Presidential election where the Pan Blue camp was very confident that they would win and didn’t warn people to watch out for the fraud. Chou Shi-Wei is up 20 points right now, but they aren’t taking things for granted.

How can any sensible, discerning person react except by guffawing loudly and dismissively at allegations of electoral fraud coming out of pan-blue mouths?

There may be attempts at improperly upping their vote count by some pan-green supporters at these elections, but you can bet for sure that they’ll be eclipsed tenfold or more by the like and much worse from the pan-blues.

Unfortunately, it looks to be a foregone conclusion that the repulsively sluglike Soong crony and budding apprentice peculator is going to become our next county chief. God help us poor unoffending residents of Taipei County, and damn to Hell those who cast their votes so stupidly!

Oh man, this would be funny if it wasn’t so scary! Can there really be people smart enough to know how to write that actually believe nonsense like this? :astonished:

well,He is Chou Xi -Wei,not Chou shi wei. :smiley:

If you’re going to go “Hanyu”, go all the way: Zhou Xiwei

If you’re going to go “Hanyu”, go all the way: Zhou Xiwei[/quote]

Arr, :blush: you have corrected it.
seems Im a bit late . :smiley:

What does a Taiwanese politician do when he finds out about weblogs - and that people are using them to make fun of him? He blames his opponent and then sues him. :boo-hoo:


Thanks to Michael Turton for the link!

I just hope that Luo doesn’t organize any more tug-o-war contests.

It was all a bit of 'armless fun.

(sorry, couldn’t resist)
p.s. Maoman - the link you’re refering to was originally from here

taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ … 2003282189

The latest article on the election from the Taipei Times says that Lou is trailing 1.5 percentage points and that a DPP campaign strategist predicts a difference of 50,000 votes.

Tvbs Poll Center just recently released its poll done last night which has Chou ahead by 17 points.

The DPP is continuing to emphasize that the race is close.

We’ll see if the opposition as a whole has what it takes to actually ensure that they win the election this time.

You ARE aware, aren’t you Betelnut, that the ONLY things pre-election polls show is that pollsters are completely and utterly unable to predict election outcomes. :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/deta … 2789&GRP=B

The CEC is saying that recounts are not allowed to prevent disputes in close elections.

Green Camp supporters always say that the election process is clear and transparent. However, the CEC, a supposedly neutral body, always makes decisions that essentially leave room for fraud.

In the Presidential election last year, there were accounts of people seeing invalid Chen Shui-Bian ballots become valid, and valid Lien Chan ballots becoming invalid. Of course the staff members would use the newly passed rules as their right for doing this.

Of course people who defend the legitimacy of that election say that 2/3 of the invalid ballots belonged to Chen anyway and there was an invalid ballot alliance. But it’s really not that simple when you look into the details.

There were accounts of people seeing the election staff purposely miscount the vote so that Chen’s ballots would be more.

Finally, there was a video released of election staff manipulating ballots in Sanchong, Taipei County at the 3.27 rally. The staff were counting Chen’s ballots and putting them back in the uncounted ballots so that they could be counted again by the hundreds. Another election staff worker removed ballots by the hundreds from the uncounted ballots and put them into the Lien’s pile of ballots which had already been counted so that they would never be counted at all. Meanwhile, the Lien-Soong monitor was just watching all this and even assisting them in doing the fraud. This is why the Pan Blue camp accused some of their own monitors of committing fraud for the DPP. The video of Sanchong indicates that some Lien-Soong monitors have been bought off.

That Sanchong video is the only video any Pan Blue supporter shot of fraud taking place in last year’s election. The rest are stories that some people will beleive and others will disbelieve. And of course there are also others who believe it and look the other way with a grin on their face.

Of course, some of these kinds of irregularites can be caught by doing an immediate recount to settle disputes. In the past, when the DPP accused the KMT of committing fraud (when it wasn’t fraud), the KMT immediately recounted the ballots to settle the dispute when the DPP supporters surrounded the court demanding a recount.

Now the DPP is making it easier for elections to be rigged, and also making it easier to cover them up by not allowing a recount. Instead the opposition has to go through a court process which can hardly be considered legitimate by any standard if you listen to how the judiciary reasons their way out of everything to favour the ruling party.

Earlier, the CEC also announced that they would not release any results until all the votes were in. This is of course different than in the past when they would release results as soon as they got them.

By doing it this way, the CEC essentially will not have to worry about giving itself away when the election staff conducts their last minute fraud during the ballot counting process to make sure the DPP wins in certain elections. That is, when a DPP candidate is trailing the KMT candidate late in the counting process, it looks suspicious if the DPP candidate suddenly jumps over the KMT candidate. By not releasing any results until the end, the CEC does not have to worry about that.

Of course, Pan Green supporters blamed this issue on the Pan Blue media saying that the media has misled Pan Blue supporters into thinking they were going to win, when they weren’t. But according to the ballots returns for all the stations, the last one had Chen ahead for good by 6:30 and well before the final results were in. Nobody was misled into thinking that the Pan Blue camp was going to win. The results did not change at the last second to match the CEC’s final figure.

Does the fact that the CEC has ruled that recounts are not going to be allowed seem strange to anyone? Or is it totally reasonable because this will prevent the blue camp from acting like sore losers and asking for recounts when the process was totally clean?

What a waste of typing. To sum up your post in its entirety – DPP BAD! KMT GOOD!
Is that really the best you can do? :unamused:
Are you really such a total idiot that you honestly believe this claptrap? You’re not a taxi driver in a small town, are you?

What idiotic poppycock! Are you still peddling that old, totally discredited line? Have you no sense of shame? It’s been thrown out by the courts at every level, and doesn’t have a shred of credibility to any but the most mentally blinkered pan-blue zealot. You only make yourself an object of ridicule by continuing to repeat it, especially in a forum such as this.

The same applies to all the rest of the drivel in your post.

DPP is a evil cult. Court is brainwashed by evil DPP cult. Only KMT has truth forbearance and something-else-can’t remember-what-right-now-better-ask-Lizi.

I have met Luo Wenjia a couple of times but I don’t like him - he’s an ageist!

Besides, do you remember how he started his campaign - promising to move a prison out of Taibei County. Yeah, move it where? Without an alternate site, the promise is meaningless. Could anyone really fall for such nonsense? What’s more, even if there is another location for the prison, moving it might not be popular with everyone. If petty crooks are gaoled (jailed) near their homes, it is convenient for their family members to visit them. If the gaol is moved far away, it will be a hassle for the convicts’ families. So prisoners’ families may be one category of people who won’t be voting for Luo Wenjia this time.

That’s a rhetorical question, right?

Actually, I’m impressed - it’s a policy! I thought mentioning any policies was banned in the Taipei County election - isn’t it 100% sleaze allegations nowadays?

[quote=“Maoman”]What does a Taiwanese politician do when he finds out about weblogs - and that people are using them to make fun of him? He blames his opponent and then sues him. :boo-hoo:
[/quote]

What a surprise! This crowd calls it “mudslinging” to note that provincial councilor Chou obtained an UNSECURED NT$12 million loan from a govt-run bank in 1997, never paid it back, was ordered by a court to pay NT$15 million, and paid only NT$2m. His laughable responses:

  • Claim the details are “unverified” (A ringing assertion of innocence if I ever heard one!)

  • Cry in public

  • Say the charges are upsetting his 80-year old mother.

  • Claim that his opponent shouldn’t have this information (and thus by extension the public has no right to know about it.) Get legislator cronies to threaten an investigation.

The pan-blues were handed an issue by media focus on incidents of DPP corruption in Kaohsiung, but they’re utterly unable to take advantage of it in any credible way. Look at the difference here: The DPP fired Chen Che-nan and publicly rebuked him. In the KMT he’d apparently make a fine candidate for higher office.