While Taiwan’s military bulking up is unlikely to secure total defense against a potential Chinese invasion, it could very well buy it more time until US (world?) aid arrives.
And “F” China’s ‘feelings’ on this issue, they are completely illogical anyway… it’s like caving in to a crying child.
Quite correct. Taiwan militarily does need subs, but none willing to sell actually make conventional diesel subs anymore. Also, IIRC there was a kerfluffle over the requirement that Taiwan build some of these subs themselves. Gravy train? Tech transfer? Not gonna happen as all of that tech is too sensitive.
Anyway, it’s besides the point. I believe as mentioned by others that Taiwan needs arms not to compete with China, but just enough to make invading it more painful than the political alternatives. Taiwan also needs to credibly be able to survive until the guarantor of the status quo, the US, can show up. That means 2-3 weeks or abouts.
History is full of small states that mistakenly felt they could count on the goodwill of thier neighbors. Have things really changed that much?
Not necessarily. If needed (or perhaps, more correctly, if the political will is there), the US Navy could respond in 24-72 hours. However, that probably wont happen, although, I suspect a lot would depend on the circumstances.
having seen what a Taiwan mechanic can do to my scooter, there is just absolutely no way you’d ever get me aboard a Taiwan-built submarine.
They would still be a deterent to furrin subs…cuz theres a strong chance a TW sub could run into em.
Good point. Taiwan should make thousands of little blue subs and pay the crew in betel nut. After every crash: stop, get out and take photographs!
We’re definitely onto something here.
Onto the fastest way to the next wave of illegal immigration and general smuggling 
You’re likely right. I guess it would depend if everything was in place or not. I think it would be a mistake to assume there is no politcal will, excepting circumstances where Taiwan declared unilaterally due to the TRA. I think Taiwan needs to keep at least a pre-tense of resisting an invasion to help avoid one.
One of the nightmare for Taiwan scenarios is the mainland isolating the country from international shipping with a caution about entering “its” territory and safeguarding it with a few strategically placed subs, like just off Kaohsiung harbour.
Taiwan needs subs to counter this threat.
HG
[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]One of the nightmare for Taiwan scenarios is the mainland isolating the country from international shipping with a caution about entering “its” territory and safeguarding it with a few strategically placed subs, like just off Kaohsiung harbour.
Taiwan needs subs to counter this threat.
HG[/quote]
That’s what the submariners will tell you. And I have to say, O pretty much agree. Also, once you lose your submarine capability it takes a hell of a long time to rebuild it.
washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co … 01350.html
An interesting piece, as was mentioned a sign that the F-16 sale might be on?
It sounds like Washington somehow needs to provide justification if it wants to sell the F-16. Since when does the US need to provide justification for selling arms to Taiwan? Frankly, it’s not like there’s anything in the Pentagon report that everyone doesn’t already know. Ain’t exactly news that Taiwan’s military doesn’t match up well with the Chinese military.
well, F-16s of any upgrade are pretty much a defensive weapon, as they have a pathetic range and Taiwan does not do aerial refueling. they’re no F22, and they’re no F-15. but they would integrate well with Taiwan’s current requirements and capabilities and fleet.
[quote=“garfaldo”]While Taiwan’s military bulking up is unlikely to secure total defense against a potential Chinese invasion, it could very well buy it more time until US (world?) aid arrives.
And “F” China’s ‘feelings’ on this issue, they are completely illogical anyway… it’s like caving in to a crying child.[/quote]
Big mistake to count on the USA coming to Taiwan’s aid. The USA only attacks weak nations, like Iraq, Afghanistan, or Serbia (1998), or Panama (1989), etc. Ever since the Vietnam War, American politicians have gotten a yellow streak when it comes to taking heavy casualties or getting into a prolonged conflict. American posturing and swaggering is still in full force, but it’s empty rhetoric. China is lending the money to keep the US government afloat - they KNOW the USA is a bankrupt, crumbling empire. China is delighted to see America bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, slowly going broke and militarily exhausted.
As for the rest of the world, I can’t think of a single country that will even bother to send China a note of protest.
So Taiwan had better not count on anybody riding to the rescue.
cheers,
DB
They get lightning pods - very good ground attack. It’s not the range that hampers the f-16, but the lack of proper air-to-air radar.
Dog’s Breakfast - did you actually come up with that one yourself? :bravo:
They’ve been saying that for fifty to sixty years. The Soviets were convinced of it.
Personally, I wouldn’t bargain on it.
As to whether the US would come to Taiwan’s aid? I’m also a doubter, but not because they’re “a bankrupt, crumbling empire” or “slowly going broke and militarily exhausted”. Given the right set of circumstances the US would intervene, albeit a long shot. And if they did commit to a conflict, with anyone, that other power would be in a lot deeper than they could handle.
The US military hasn’t had a decent fight since WWII. They weren’t even committed to the conflict in Vietnam (and that was a political, not a military, decision). Added to that, the US military is not designed to police domestic or foreign populations. It’s designed to destroy conventional forces in the field. And when they’ve been given free reign to do just that, they have never disappointed.
It’s only real weakness is that it often lacks the political (or popular) will to pursue a conflict to it’s inevitable conclusion.
The problem with Taiwan is, that unless the Taiwanese military has the capability to swiftly and decisively destroy the enemy (in this case, the PLA, PLAN, PLAAF) they will inevitably lose. They are, in a way, faced with the same problem the Israelis face in the event of an invasion. Unless a swift and decisive end is achieved (not bloody likely), the alternative is eventual defeat.
Everyone knows this (except the deluded few), and which is why some argue for a strong Taiwanese military, i.e. one that can keep the “Dragon” out of the castle long enough for the cavalry (foreign military assistance) to arrive. Sadly, the chances are the cavalry will probably never arrive.
Perhaps the KMT knows this and that is why they are seeking some sort of arrangement.
They’re the sods that got us into this mess to begin with. But it’s a tough choice in Taiwan. One group (KMT) is close to giving the whole place away, and the other lot (DPP) whine like washer women half the time, and the other half of the time threaten to spark open war with threats of declarations of independence and referendums on the matter. Between the oil and the fire. All the while both sides are trying to buy a load of crap that will probably only successfully defend the island for 45 minutes if we’re lucky, all the while the economy is going down the tubes and economically we may as well be part of China as it is.
It’s a bloody mess. Either way, we’re damned if we do, damned if we don’t. One can only hope George Friedman is spot on and the country (PRC) implodes in on itself in the next decade or two…
Something like that is probably the worst thing that could happen to us here. I tend to feel the US has a clear cut commitment here that its not going to turn its back on lightly. That and Taiwan’s own defenses make victory uncertain. The potential cost of failure for China is infinite. The potential gains are largely symbolic–Taiwan isn’t going anywhere and is moving closer and closer to the mainland anyway. The only wildcards are Taiwan independence–and if the most that was going to happen after eight years of CSB was changing the name of the CKS memorial hall that doesn’t seem to be an unstoppable steamroller at least–and some sort of implosion in China that makes a military adventure look attractive.
Do you think that would make them more or less dangerous? Imagine the horror show we’d see if China was riven with internal unrest and hardline elements in the CCP (or heaven forbid the PLA) seized power.