Taiwan economics VS the worls. How can I find out where it's

Business Money
1

Tried to search the forum for this, but it seams I don’t use the right combination of words or it has not been asked previously.
I want to transfer NOK into TWD.

I would like to time this so I can get as much TWD as posible.
I asked my wife to check out how the Taiwan economics is doing to find out if I can expect a raise in the value or a droop and all she can come up with is that USD will get weaker compared to TWD. I could tell her that since every currency on the planet is getting stronger compared to USD.
She told me that TWD vs USD was the only measurement used here.
Quite worthless in my opinion.

Anyone else have a better clue?

2

You’re talking about a form of technical analysis. Timing the market doesn’t work.

3

Don’t work in Taiwan you mean?
I checked the analysis for British pound and saved myself a few bucks buying stuff.

4

Stian: The stock market, money markets, horse races, etc. are unpredictable because we cannot isolate one or two variables and run the whole thing like it’s some physics experiment. Past results do not predict future results, otherwise those thousands of housewives out there in Taiwan watching those last few TV channels (where they show chart after chart and do technical analysis) would be raking it in. All of this is precisely why Iceland and a whole bunch of eastern European countries are in the shit. They all bet the wrong way in highly leveraged positions, despite thinking they knew what they were doing. You need to look at the fundamentals to make any kind of prediction (and even then, it’s just a prediction). Even if you’re following the fundamentals, you need to have a margin of safety because your valuation could be wrong.

I would suggest you look into the ideas of Benjamin Graham and the subsequent value investors.

5

[quote=“Stian”]She told me that TWD vs USD was the only measurement used here. Quite worthless in my opinion.

Anyone else have a better clue?[/quote]

Sorry but she’s right. The primary pivots in the NTD are USD, and RMB. After that, the EURO.

But the vast amounts of fx are in these three currencies, and the USD is the most prominent.

I doubt also that you will be able to exchange the NOK directly here anyway. You will likely have to do a three-way exchange unless you deal with a Norwegian bank here, or one with a lot of business in Northern European currencies.

6

[quote=“GuyInTaiwan”]Stian: The stock market, money markets, horse races, etc. are unpredictable because we cannot isolate one or two variables and run the whole thing like it’s some physics experiment. Past results do not predict future results, otherwise those thousands of housewives out there in Taiwan watching those last few TV channels (where they show chart after chart and do technical analysis) would be raking it in. All of this is precisely why Iceland and a whole bunch of eastern European countries are in the shit. They all bet the wrong way in highly leveraged positions, despite thinking they knew what they were doing. You need to look at the fundamentals to make any kind of prediction (and even then, it’s just a prediction). Even if you’re following the fundamentals, you need to have a margin of safety because your valuation could be wrong.

I would suggest you look into the ideas of Benjamin Graham and the subsequent value investors.[/quote]

Value investing is only good when there’s value to be had, IE technical analysis if used well does add value, and anyone using Graham and Dodd must keep in mind that their investment bible was written in the depths of the depression. I used to do quant and technical analysis for a stock broker/hedge fund, so well, and the opinions I gave based on the charts were acted on, if not they would not have paid me a salary.

Also, for shorter term trading ideas, as to when to sit on a position for another 48 hours, or sell, fundamental analysis is basically worthless, even though I would use fundamental analysis among other tools for long term predictions.

Also, Graham and Dodd advocated an analysis method for companies, not for currency markets, which are the markets, where technical analysis offer the best insights, when seen in a trading perspective.

Stian should look at the yahoo exchange rates as a proxy for a direct trade, and keep in mind that the intermediary bank will cost him a bit extra.

7

Mr. He is correct on a lot of things.

Technical analysis is akin to reading animal entrails for clues to the future, but so many people believe in it that it is used by them to plan their short term trading strategies and has been shown to work for some people.

I’m more of a value investor though I haven;t held any position outside my Roth IRA for longer than 30 days. :blush:

8

Mr He: Pure speculation, which is why I wouldn’t get into trying to time currency conversions at all. Short term trading (of any form) is like trying to bet on which exit people are going to stampede towards when the theatre is on fire. The thing is that everyone has a system for doing this, yet unsurprisingly, few seem to be able to make it work.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb has a great quote about the companies that don’t invest for the long term and don’t account for “unexpected events”.

He says their annual letters always begin:

“Obviously, these events are as much of a surprise to us as they are to you…”

Maybe things were different for you. Dunno.

9

[quote=“GuyInTaiwan”]Mr He: Pure speculation, which is why I wouldn’t get into trying to time currency conversions at all. Short term trading (of any form) is like trying to bet on which exit people are going to stampede towards when the theatre is on fire. The thing is that everyone has a system for doing this, yet unsurprisingly, few seem to be able to make it work.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb has a great quote about the companies that don’t invest for the long term and don’t account for “unexpected events”.

He says their annual letters always begin:

“Obviously, these events are as much of a surprise to us as they are to you…”

Maybe things were different for you. Dunno.[/quote]

They were, actually, as the hedge fund using a relatively wide range of investment approaches outperformed most peers, and were consistently rated accordingly.

However, again, for Stian, no amount of fundamental analysis can help him, looking at the current trading range, and offload when near the top should help.

For most fundamentalists, speaking ill of well done technical analysis is sour grapes, especially given the dishonesty displayed by the most prominent practicers of the field during the dot com boom, bust and afterwards.

10

It’s all a big con with the system (as all systems are) favoured towards the guys with insider information, faster information and accurate information i.e. the big traders with automated systems that can execute trades much faster than you can, move markets and also have and inside info from board rooms and government. That doesn’t mean that they don’t run the risk of losing big-time (that’s obvious now but they don’t really care about that unlike you ITS NOT THERE MONEY, it’s other peoples money, what matters is ANNUAL perfomance, not long term) but they’ll beat you to the pass with short movements in the stock market/currency.

nytimes.com/2009/07/24/busin … ading.html
guardian.co.uk/business/2009 … r-arrested

To give another example of silliness, Buffet (the value trader?) buys shares in BYD and a clothes firm in China, talks about both of them being great and then makes 100s% profit in a matter of days.
dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/ … ise-stake/
money.cnn.com/2009/09/23/news/co … /index.htm

Your playing in a casino with the odds against you just the same, if the odds are stacked for somebody then they are more likely against you, simple mathematics.

11

[quote=“Mr He”][quote=“GuyInTaiwan”]Mr He: Pure speculation, which is why I wouldn’t get into trying to time currency conversions at all. Short term trading (of any form) is like trying to bet on which exit people are going to stampede towards when the theatre is on fire. The thing is that everyone has a system for doing this, yet unsurprisingly, few seem to be able to make it work.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb has a great quote about the companies that don’t invest for the long term and don’t account for “unexpected events”.

He says their annual letters always begin:

“Obviously, these events are as much of a surprise to us as they are to you…”

Maybe things were different for you. Dunno.[/quote]

They were, actually, as the hedge fund using a relatively wide range of investment approaches outperformed most peers, and were consistently rated accordingly.

However, again, for Stian, no amount of fundamental analysis can help him, looking at the current trading range, and offload when near the top should help.

For most fundamentalists, speaking ill of well done technical analysis is sour grapes, especially given the dishonesty displayed by the most prominent practicers of the field during the dot com boom, bust and afterwards.[/quote]

Mr He: Yes, fundamental analysis is not going to help someone in the short term, but that’s why I’ve said here and elsewhere that trying to time currency trading is not something I would do. It’s too risky. Long term or not at all.

Over what time period did the hedge fund outperform most peers, and did it outperform the market for the long term also? That fund was obviously doing something special, but I doubt that even if Stian could understand it, you or the fund would be willing to share that secret. Hence, we’re back to the beginning of the argument, surely?

12

[quote=“GuyInTaiwan”][quote=“Mr He”][quote=“GuyInTaiwan”]Mr He: Pure speculation, which is why I wouldn’t get into trying to time currency conversions at all. Short term trading (of any form) is like trying to bet on which exit people are going to stampede towards when the theatre is on fire. The thing is that everyone has a system for doing this, yet unsurprisingly, few seem to be able to make it work.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb has a great quote about the companies that don’t invest for the long term and don’t account for “unexpected events”.

He says their annual letters always begin:

“Obviously, these events are as much of a surprise to us as they are to you…”

Maybe things were different for you. Dunno.[/quote]

They were, actually, as the hedge fund using a relatively wide range of investment approaches outperformed most peers, and were consistently rated accordingly.

However, again, for Stian, no amount of fundamental analysis can help him, looking at the current trading range, and offload when near the top should help.

For most fundamentalists, speaking ill of well done technical analysis is sour grapes, especially given the dishonesty displayed by the most prominent practicers of the field during the dot com boom, bust and afterwards.[/quote]

Mr He: Yes, fundamental analysis is not going to help someone in the short term, but that’s why I’ve said here and elsewhere that trying to time currency trading is not something I would do. It’s too risky. Long term or not at all.

Over what time period did the hedge fund outperform most peers, and did it outperform the market for the long term also? That fund was obviously doing something special, but I doubt that even if Stian could understand it, you or the fund would be willing to share that secret. Hence, we’re back to the beginning of the argument, surely?[/quote]

Long term is made up of a lot of short terms, and trading ranges make sense in currency trading. We used fundamentals to get the general direction right - IE for common sense, and we would then time based on price and volume indicators.

We did very well in currencies, especially in positions involving the Australian dollar.

The boss was and most likely still is fretting about gold being too high, however he did not put very much money down on it.

Note that I was in an advisory position, not in one where I actually made the decisions.

13

Mr He: Fair enough. It doesn’t work for most though. Again though, care to share your system? :smiley:

14

There’s no system apart from some insider information on some aspect or else throwing huge amounts of money at something to move the market…not something a small guy can do. Look at oil trading for instance, it’s going up and down like a yo-yo, nobody can predict medium term what the price is (long term I would say due to lack of supply) but short-term big oil traders can predict pricing by literally forcing the market themselves through market manipulation and also through their contacts in government and other areas, again not something an average Joe can do. The essence is yes funds can make money on an annualised basis but they also run high risks (risks that are not beneficial to you) to get their annual bonuses AND you pay them a big wodge of cash (mgmt fee) to play with your money. Of course all the time they are spouting on they have a system or they are consistently performing better than other areas of investment…blah blah. The only consistency is in their paypacket (ok rant over :slight_smile:).

15

Common sense and realizing that all analysis methods tell you something, but again, I think my former boss flew by the seat of his pants to be honest. However, he was one of the best investors and fund managers in his day. Big players trying something funny on the sly - look at turnover, the classic jobbing up of shares by a small group of insiders could be detected by looking for heads and shoulders formations. (This is therefore rare in any meaningful form in a well-regulated market today).

16

Honestly, if you are an individual, stay away from stocks, and mutual funds are a scam. If you want to gain exposure to the stock market, a broad based index ETF would fit your bill.

Also, I would discount any group of insiders influence on any deep and liquid market. When Soros split the ERM apart back in 1992, he did it by following the trend, not by going against it. The general economic forces and pressure on the ERM were favorable to him, so he merely made a bet on when it would happen. As it were, his bet was big enough to topple the system, however his influence was mainly on the timing of it, if even that.

The same can be said about the breakdown of the Asian currencies in 1997, however those markets were so much smaller and shallower, but I still don’t buy that a group of insiders did it.

17

Using either Fundamental analysis or Technical analysis to try and divine the future are a crock. I always get a kick out of proponents or Fundamental analysis comparing TA to reading animals entrails. LOL, so looking at price movements is some how less reliable than looking at a companies financial statements??? Even assuming the books aren’t cooked you still have to make a correct call on the general economy to make a final decision on the stock’s relative value. It’s all a nonsense. The future is unknown, end of story. If you are going to play the market, and it can be done, you need to think as a professional gambler. It’s all about money management and DISCIPLINE.

18

This thread needed a proponent of the efficient market hypothesis :smiley:

19

The best way to play the market is to sense hysteria, if you have more common sense when everybody is running around hysterically then you know when to invest and when not to…if you want to make big gains. For long term just follow the general economic trends…nothing fancy about it.

BTW, I remember reading all these shorters and fundamental traders based in Taiwan going on here about American banking stocks and this and that…while the big play was right in front of their eyes with Taiwanese solid electronics stocks from companies that actually make good stuff at a good price with a global market…a lot of idiots out there.